Official Greater Philadelphia Area Crime Thread (York, Washington: safe neighborhood, university, dangerous)

[Padugan]

Originally Posted by Summersm343

There have been several proven studies on this that there really is no direct correlation between weather and crime.

I think you can find studies for both arguments. but In philly? look at the stats. Highest crime rate is between May and September when people are outside. It's not direct relation as in high pressure system equals higher crime, but simply there is more interaction in dense areas as a result of the nice weather. Crime drops when it gets really hot or really cold.

The Hazy Science of Hot Weather and Violence | Wired Science | Wired.com

[tintin19119]

Originally Posted by Summersm343

There have been several proven studies on this that there really is no direct correlation between weather and crime.

Bull ! you can show me all the studies you want. I worked in North Philly for over 23 yrs. Thugs are not hanging out on the corner as much when it`s freezing out. As soon as the warm weather hits, all hell breaks out. I know people who hate summer because they know the punks will be out in full force starting trouble.

[Marius Pontmercy]

Originally Posted by tintin19119

Bull ! you can show me all the studies you want. I worked in North Philly for over 23 yrs. Thugs are not hanging out on the corner as much when it`s freezing out. As soon as the warm weather hits, all hell breaks out. I know people who hate summer because they know the punks will be out in full force starting trouble.

Most homicides in the city are targeted. These guys will off their targets rain or shine. The homicides that increase during warm weather are the ones where two guys with a beef happen into each other on the street because they're both outside due to the weather. These are less frequent, but there is that aspect. I've looked at studies that show the rate doesn't change significantly. I think a lot of the trouble started on the streets during warm weather, while threatening and detrimental to QOL, doesn't end up translating to murder, so it doesn't end up in that statistic. Things like random fights and loud arguments in the street, creepy ghetto "block parties" and the like. All that stuff that degrades a neighborhoods QOL, but is short of murder.

[frankgn87]

Originally Posted by Summersm343

...and a man shot and killed in front of his wife in Oxford Circle
Husband shot and killed in front of wife in Northeast Philadelphia | 6abc.com

Close to my old neighborhood

[tintin19119]

Originally Posted by Marius Pontmercy

Things like random fights and loud arguments in the street, creepy ghetto "block parties" and the like. All that stuff that degrades a neighborhoods QOL, but is short of murder.

I agree with everything you said ,up to this point. Years ago random fights and arguments in the street would not lead to murder.They will now a days. This started out as a fight.

Two charged in shooting that killed Overbrook High student

Less not forget the bullets through the windows,for the unforunate ones who live the forgotten neighborhoods in Philly.

[asiandudeyo]

I am not sure whether this has been done before (and whether it is possible to be done):
It is useful to have a statistical break down as where the perpetrators came from, i.e., whether they came from the neighborhood, related to the neighborhood or visitors.
This in my opinion will help local residents and future residents to assess the safety level of their areas.
For example, in the case of the CHOP doctor's homicide, the perpetrator came from another county. He was just a visitor. So technically eliminating that homicide, we can conclude that Rittenhouse is a safe area.
Again this is my 2 cents.

Originally Posted by Summersm343

^^ Some thoughts on that.

1. The West Kensington neighborhood has seen an astonishing 7 murders so far this year.

2. Center City has seen a surprising 3 murders this year. One was the CHOP doctor who was murdered in her home, the other was the rapper related shooting at Penn's Landing, and the third was a guy who killed his wife in their apartment building in a murder homicide.

3. West Philadelphia, Lower North Philadelphia, and Upper North Philadelphia are all tied for the most murders at 12 a piece...if we combine Olney/Oak Lane section with Upper North Philadelphia, then Upper North has the most at 17 murders.

4. In what I defined as the "core" of the city, there has been 19 murders or 30% of the murders in the city so far this year. Those murders have been 3 in Center City (1 in Rittenhouse, 1 in Penn's Landing and 1 in Franklintown), 5 in South Philadelphia (3 in the Dickinson Narrows and 2 in Point Breeze), 0 in West Philadelphia in what I defined as the core neighborhoods, 4 in Lower North Philadelphia (2 in Francisville, 1 in West Poplar and 1 in Norris Square) in what I defined as the core neighborhoods, and 7 in the Riverwards in what I defined as the core neighborhoods, all of which occurred in West Kensington. On the contrary, when combining all the areas of what is generally considered "North Philadelphia," there have been an astonishing 29 murders total, or 45% of the murders so far this year.

[asiandudeyo]

Originally Posted by Padugan

5. Murder rate is related to weather. This is the second coldest spring on record. once the weather breaks that number (65 in 2013) will spike. 2007 was a very hot year in the city, literally and metaphorically.

This is a scary reality check.

[frankgn87]

Originally Posted by asiandudeyo

I am not sure whether this has been done before (and whether it is possible to be done):
It is useful to have a statistical break down as where the perpetrators came from, i.e., whether they came from the neighborhood, related to the neighborhood or visitors.
This in my opinion will help local residents and future residents to assess the safety level of their areas.
For example, in the case of the CHOP doctor's homicide, the perpetrator came from another county. He was just a visitor. So technically eliminating that homicide, we can conclude that Rittenhouse is a safe area.
Again this is my 2 cents.

so murders in an area don't count if the murderer don't live there. Tell that to the murdered persons family..

[gwillyfromphilly]

Jury convicts 34-year-old Patrick Latko in Hammonton double murder.

Jury Convicts Latko In Hammonton Double Murder « CBS Philly

[Cnote11]

Originally Posted by frankgn87

so murders in an area don't count if the murderer don't live there. Tell that to the murdered persons family..

Be more honest, Frank. That is not what he is saying whatsoever. He's talking about assessing the safety of a neighborhood relative to such variables and not how meaningful the murder is based off of where it was committed.