Is Phoenix RE a good investment? (sale, homes, prices)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by bguar

The rest of the country will lag quite a bit behind us -- and I don't think we will see all of that demand for new construction for some time, giving builders (hopefully) an opportunity to play catch up.

And the rest of the ones who weren't stuck in a house probably already moved here -- and/or most likely are not waiting to "buy" -- but renting first.

Not true at all! IN MN, I have had 16 showing and 2 offers and I am over $400K. I've been on the market for 2 weeks. I turned down the other offers. One was contingent and the other was $10K too low (with too quick of a close).

Cut, paste, repeat in MANY areas of the country.

In Phoenix, the super cheap houses are pulling in THOUSANDS of 2nd home buyers like me years ahead of time. Other than the naysayers, the general public understands that this perfect storm could be over sooner than any "expert" predicted. I wasn't always so bullish, I was cheer-leading in 2010 to wait to buy a home. Unfortunately for many, the Phoenix window of opportunity has closed for non-cash buyers. If they need financing, they cannot overbid the conservative appraised value.

I told several friends about AZ RE but they all read the news and figured it was going to slide some more.

While a meltdown in Greece or continued deficit spending could push us back in the hole, the recovery is in full swing. I wholeheartedly think there is a 6 year pent up demand in cars, furniture, etc. That will make its way into housing so long as the government doesn't kick us back into a slowdown because of mismanagement.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Not true at all! IN MN, I have had 16 showing and 2 offers and I am over $400K. I've been on the market for 2 weeks. I turned down the other offers. One was contingent and the other was $10K too low (with too quick of a close).

Cut, paste, repeat in MANY areas of the country.

In Phoenix, the super cheap houses are pulling in THOUSANDS of 2nd home buyers like me years ahead of time. Other than the naysayers, the general public understands that this perfect storm could be over sooner than any "expert" predicted. I wasn't always so bullish, I was cheer-leading in 2010 to wait to buy a home. Unfortunately for many, the Phoenix window of opportunity has closed for non-cash buyers. If they need financing, they cannot overbid the conservative appraised value.

I told several friends about AZ RE but they all read the news and figured it was going to slide some more.

While a meltdown in Greece or continued deficit spending could push us back in the hole, the recovery is in full swing. I wholeheartedly think there is a 6 year pent up demand in cars, furniture, etc. That will make its way into housing so long as the government doesn't kick us back into a slowdown because of mismanagement.

This "perfect storm" has been seen in areas other than RE and was quite profitable for those that caught it. Diesel pickups and large SUV's. When fuel prices hit $4+ per gallon the first time (about 5 years ago) you could buy a $40-$50k loaded diesel for about $10-$12k (used of course) and I personally know of a lady who traded in her 2 yr old Escallade and got $10k for it (paid over $50k). When the RV industry hit a wall and many started to fail you could by a loaded class A RV for .10 cents on the dollar. Both it seems were a one time event with a short window to take advantage and it seems this housing thing is going/gone the same way.

[Captain Bill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bguar
The rest of the country will lag quite a bit behind us -- and I don't think we will see all of that demand for new construction for some time, giving builders (hopefully) an opportunity to play catch up.

And the rest of the ones who weren't stuck in a house probably already moved here -- and/or most likely are not waiting to "buy" -- but renting first.

Just as the media is very slow on picking up on the market change in Phoenix, so are they in other parts of the country.

There are many areas of the country, Atlanta included, where the market has changed, but the media has not begun reporting it.

I'm aware of it because I belong to a large network of Realtors across the country who blog daily about their market.

[whodiman]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Quote:

Just as the media is very slow on picking up on the market change in Phoenix, so are they in other parts of the country.

There are many areas of the country, Atlanta included, where the market has changed, but the media has not begun reporting it.

I'm aware of it because I belong to a large network of Realtors across the country who blog daily about their market.

This is an interesting point and I have to admit I got sucked in by the media too. We all read about how Vegas is still going down and it might be overall but at the same time I know of some friends that have been in bidding wars on the sub 100K market the last few months and especially the lower price range for the condo market.

[autism360]

The law of supply and demand says when the supply goes down.............................................. .............. prices go up.
Does anyone not believe that supply is down or that demand is high? Watch and see the folks who were sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bottom now become fearful they will lose out and pay whatever it takes to get in the game. I saw it in the stock market of 2000 when people were buying tech stocks like Qualcom at 800 a share. It is the same mindset.It will become a status symbol to be in the game.

[autism360]

Housing market update

Here's a quick look at the latest statistics. April showed another month of positive gains for metro Phoenix's housing market.
The region's median monthly resale home price climbed to $138,325, from $131,000 in March, according to Tom Ruff's analysis with AZbidder and Information Market. In October, the median was $115,000.

FYI Tom Ruff has worked with Cromford so he has some street cred

Read more: Home prices hit $20 - via benefit raffle

[autism360]

Asking Prices and Inventory for Homes in Phoenix Arizona | Department of Numbers

Since this time last year, the inventory of homes for sale has decreased by 42.6% and the median price has increased by
34.2%.

I guess all those that bought a year ago would say yes to "Do you think Phoenix is a safe place to invest in Real estate?"
I bet those that are purchasing now will say the same thing in a year.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by autism360

Asking Prices and Inventory for Homes in Phoenix Arizona | Department of Numbers

Since this time last year, the inventory of homes for sale has decreased by 42.6% and the median price has increased by
34.2%.

I guess all those that bought a year ago would say yes to "Do you think Phoenix is a safe place to invest in Real estate?"
I bet those that are purchasing now will say the same thing in a year.

Let's hope so as that'd mean ours went up even more!

[autism360]

I just noticed a home in my subdivision was bought at auction in late march for 152K went on the market in late April and went pending in 4 days for 219K.That investor will do pretty well.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by autism360

I just noticed a home in my subdivision was bought at auction in late march for 152K went on the market in late April and went pending in 4 days for 219K.That investor will do pretty well.

He should do well, but remember that there are buying, rehab and selling expenses. He won't net the difference in the 219 and 152.