Is Phoenix RE a good investment? (for sale, houses, buyer)

[autism360]

Phoenix is in quite a fix for housing since inventory of resales is very low and new home builders have no construction crews to ramp up production and have very,very few homes built.
One builder said they have a 1 month wait list just to get clients under contract so they can wait for a home to be built and another says they normally have a 4-6 month build time but they are unable to quote any build time at all because of the shortage in construction crews.
What this means is that builders control the inventory and will allow prices to climb even higher before they start to truly ramp up production. Wait and see how crazy it gets with bidding wars, it will make 200-2006 look tame.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by autism360

Phoenix is in quite a fix for housing since inventory of resales is very low and new home builders have no construction crews to ramp up production and have very,very few homes built.
One builder said they have a 1 month wait list just to get clients under contract so they can wait for a home to be built and another says they normally have a 4-6 month build time but they are unable to quote any build time at all because of the shortage in construction crews.
What this means is that builders control the inventory and will allow prices to climb even higher before they start to truly ramp up production. Wait and see how crazy it gets with bidding wars, it will make 200-2006 look tame.

Builders don't control the inventory, there will be plenty of resale homes listed as pricing comes up.

[autism360]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Builders don't control the inventory, there will be plenty of resale homes listed as pricing comes up.

In my opinion builders are in the drivers seat, they will control the bulk of new inventory, even when home values rise many more people are moving here than leaving. We have 6 years of pent up demand from people wanting to move here and very few homes have been built in the last 5 years.
I remember in 2005 when builders held lotteries to see what lucky person would have the privilege of buying a home,they were in control then and I see it happening again.
Based on how quickly or slowly they react to the housing crisis will determine the housing market.
The construction crews that will be moving here will all need homes for themselves and their families so that will eat into the small inventory of empty rentals and homes that we have. I see danger Will Robinson!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by autism360

In my opinion builders are in the drivers seat, they will control the bulk of new inventory, even when home values rise many more people are moving here than leaving. We have 6 years of pent up demand from people wanting to move here and very few homes have been built in the last 5 years.
I remember in 2005 when builders held lotteries to see what lucky person would have the privilege of buying a home,they were in control then and I see it happening again.
Based on how quickly or slowly they react to the housing crisis will determine the housing market.
The construction crews that will be moving here will all need homes for themselves and their families so that will eat into the small inventory of empty rentals and homes that we have. I see danger Will Robinson!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're right,

Buy now or be priced out of the market forever!

[autism360]

30-year mortgage rate hits record 3.83%
30-year mortgage rate hits record 3.83%

Interest rates are a huge factor when buying a home for investment further fueling buyer demand for homes in the Phoenix area

[autism360]

Daily Real Estate News
Phoenix tops list of 10 turnaround markets

The number 1 spot is always a good place to be

[bguar]

Originally Posted by autism360

In my opinion builders are in the drivers seat, they will control the bulk of new inventory, even when home values rise many more people are moving here than leaving. We have 6 years of pent up demand from people wanting to move here and very few homes have been built in the last 5 years.
I remember in 2005 when builders held lotteries to see what lucky person would have the privilege of buying a home,they were in control then and I see it happening again.
Based on how quickly or slowly they react to the housing crisis will determine the housing market.
The construction crews that will be moving here will all need homes for themselves and their families so that will eat into the small inventory of empty rentals and homes that we have. I see danger Will Robinson!!!!!!!!!!!!!

While it's true that there have been very few homes built here, I do not believe it is true that there are 6 years of pent up demand from people wanting to move here. TBH -- if that was the case, they're still stuck in their homes at other portions of the country anyway, since it hasn't caught up and we dumped our foreclosure inventory much, much faster than they did. The rest of the country will lag quite a bit behind us -- and I don't think we will see all of that demand for new construction for some time, giving builders (hopefully) an opportunity to play catch up.

And the rest of the ones who weren't stuck in a house probably already moved here -- and/or most likely are not waiting to "buy" -- but renting first.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by autism360

Daily Real Estate News
Phoenix tops list of 10 turnaround markets

The number 1 spot is always a good place to be

It is good to be number one, but it is not sustainable unless the rest of the country picks up like we have. We have little manufacturing, little innovation industries. We depend on newcomers for most of our economic activity. If they can't sell neither can we and our homes will stop appreciating as soon as the investor interest wanes. Like I said, number one is good, but I'd like to see more places in California, Chicago, even Dayton on that list of appreciating areas too.

[autism360]

Originally Posted by bguar

While it's true that there have been very few homes built here, I do not believe it is true that there are 6 years of pent up demand from people wanting to move here. TBH -- if that was the case, they're still stuck in their homes at other portions of the country anyway, since it hasn't caught up and we dumped our foreclosure inventory much, much faster than they did. The rest of the country will lag quite a bit behind us -- and I don't think we will see all of that demand for new construction for some time, giving builders (hopefully) an opportunity to play catch up.

And the rest of the ones who weren't stuck in a house probably already moved here -- and/or most likely are not waiting to "buy" -- but renting first.

We will see what happens as news of the Arizona recovery spreads and I do believe that the we have pent up demand from:

1.boomers
2.kids who were 12-18 6 years ago and now are 18-24 and want to move away from mom and dad
3.AZ is a historically high relocation area(over the last 10 years has been 1 of the fastest growing states in the country)the last 6 years of expected relocators were delayed not stopped
4. Canadians and boomers from other countries who have aged over the last 6 years have higher value currency due to the dollar decline and want a winter retirement home


I took the time to call several home builders and found they have very little if any inventory and have been selling homes like they are going out of style. They do not have enough construction people to meet the demand they are experiencing, some could not even tell me how long it will take to have a home built if I walked in with cash to buy one. One builder said they would take my name and I might get a call in a month.They have already had increased pricing with rumors of more increases. Some are waiting on permits so they can build, while others said they have sold out and are waiting on corporate to break ground on another phase.
It is pretty amazing to me that they were so caught off guard, you would have thought they would have been watching the shrinking resale inventory with anticipation but I guess they bought into the hype about the "fictitious elusive SHADOW INVENTORY"
Call up a couple and see what they say.
Out of
381 Subdivisions
321 Move-In Ready Homes(should be 11,000 min)

[ReadyFreddy]

I don't understand why there would be 6 years pent up demand to move here. Houses here have been super cheap, not expensive. What's stopping anyone from moving here? It seems like it'd be the other direction-- we could have years of pent up demand of people wanting to move out but they can't because they're upside down. I do know people in that situation.