Decline of Phoenix area? (Mesa, Scottsdale: sales, mortgage, home builders)

[caryberry]

Originally Posted by AlohaFriday

Phoenix's growth coincided with air conditioning. It's not likely to see that kind of growth again. That's what fueled the whole real estate industry. Right now our entire economy hinges on mad growth. That's not sustainable.

No truer words have ever been posted. Phoenix is barely inhabitable in the summer even with A/C

[Bondurant]

Originally Posted by AlohaFriday

Phoenix's growth coincided with air conditioning. It's not likely to see that kind of growth again. That's what fueled the whole real estate industry. Right now our entire economy hinges on mad growth. That's not sustainable.

Air conditioning certainly made things easier but air conditioning alone does not make people move to the desert. People believed and still do that it's worthwhile to come here.

[Ztonyg]

Originally Posted by Agoodtry

Sorry, but I can't find the article that had the top 150 cities to face economic decline over next 10 years and they had Tempe, Mesa, Gilbert in the 130-150 range.

Based it on a poor job market and a false recovery of real estate, which will lead to an economic downturn.

Just to be clear, I am not trolling in anyway, trying to get anyone upset, but would just like to see what residents think, as I am looking to relocate to the area.

As I have been looking at relocating, I have a few saved Zillow searches and I have noticed a number of PRICE CUTS on houses.

Would lvoe opinions.

The article wasn't about decline over the next 10 years. Rather it was about which cities have recovered the least since the recession in 2008.

Here's the article: http://www.azcentral.com/story/money...ered/13365017/

As far as the general topic. My fiance and I are moving to Colorado within the next year to have children there as the schools and overall well being for children here in the Arizona leaves something to be desired. If Arizona would invest in the public education system and the higher education system, it would be able to diversify the workforce and attract higher paying jobs.

[Agoodtry]

I see a ton of houses from the 50's and 60s priced below 300K in the Phoenix area, that seem to compete with NEW homes in the Gilbert, chandler area.

I personally have the ability to take an old house and make it pretty nice, but not sure I would put the money into it, if I am next to a bunch of houses that arent going to sell. Would never realize that money back.

So, I see these developers building new on the outskirts and wonder if this is where the re market goes and leaves the older stuff in the dust and it needs to be priced in the 100's to sell

[sandy6879]

I'm in Gilbert, and in the past 3 years we've lived in our house, I've watched no less than 6 new subdivisions be built within 2 miles from us. These are not low priced homes either, most start in the $300s. I've been wondering how they have enough buyers to continue to build these properties - I don't see the building growth slowing at least in our area. House prices do seem to have stabilized a bit though.

[AlohaFriday]

Originally Posted by Bondurant

Air conditioning certainly made things easier but air conditioning alone does not make people move to the desert. People believed and still do that it's worthwhile to come here.

"The war effort during World War II stimulated the growth of the Valley. After the war, acombination of events led to much faster growth. These included the desire of ex-servicemen stationed in the area during the war to return; improvements in air conditioning; charter government in Phoenix, which allowed a small pro-growth business group to gain power; and aerospace and electronics firms siting facilities, in part because of the federal government’sdesignation of Fort Huachuca as the principal proving ground for electronic defense equipment."

http://repository.asu.edu/attachment...pmentOfPhx.pdf

I wasn't being snide or funny. It's true; air conditioning is commonly cited as a significant factor in Phoenix's growth.

[Agoodtry]

Originally Posted by sandy6879

I'm in Gilbert, and in the past 3 years we've lived in our house, I've watched no less than 6 new subdivisions be built within 2 miles from us. These are not low priced homes either, most start in the $300s. I've been wondering how they have enough buyers to continue to build these properties - I don't see the building growth slowing at least in our area. House prices do seem to have stabilized a bit though.

Your concern is what I have read in other places of finding the buyers for these new houses, then leaving the older houses sitting and sitting. Bringing down those prices.

personally, I would buy the new house for $319 v the Old house for $260K.

It's one of the issues that has been raised. What happens to the communities that the prices fall so much.

[sandy6879]

Originally Posted by Agoodtry

Your concern is what I have read in other places of finding the buyers for these new houses, then leaving the older houses sitting and sitting. Bringing down those prices.

personally, I would buy the new house for $319 v the Old house for $260K.

It's one of the issues that has been raised. What happens to the communities that the prices fall so much.

I agree, I would too. From watching other parts of the valley, neighborhoods go one of 2 ways. They either have families who move there and stay there for many years and keep up the area, or they have a quick continual sell-off, turn into high rental areas, and/or progress into lower income areas as houses need to be priced lower and lower to sell.

I can see areas like Florence get built up in the next decade or 2 as the desire for new builds is still there, and people don't want to purchase "older" homes (which makes me laugh because back on the east coast, if a house was under 50 years old, it wasn't considered that old. Here, 10 years is considered almost ancient by some.)

Which goes back to the point of the OP - will the area eventually decline? My bet is on yes, in some areas. Others will become what Tempe is now, built out to the extent it can be, and the expansion to empty desert or farmland will continue. The mega-tropolis forecast is one of the factors that has us looking somewhere outside of AZ for our long-term living.

[Agoodtry]

Yes, a house in the 1960's in chicago is modern, as there are plenty of late 1800's and early 1900's rehabs.

the area SOUTH of chicago is called Chicago heights, I mention it because the most famous guy from their is probably Jerry colangelo. I am sure when he grew up there it was a nice communtiy of Italian families in bungalows and new sF homes.

Now it is a dump. You can acquire homes for $1, if you agree to bring them up to code. They have houses for under $100K and they dont sell. It's now a terrible area. However, if you go 5 miles west, you have brand new communities.

So, the South side of chicago and the south burbs are the result of this migration of people. That is also where 90% of the shootings you hear about in the national news.

[Ponderosa]

It was Glendale, Tempe and Tucson, not Gilbert. All three will not see the single family housing booms that drove their economic numbers again. Development has moved outside of those areas. They will have to come up with a new model going forward. There is a thread on what Tempe is doing on the forum today. Glendale is a mess with bad, short-sighted, leadership as evidenced by their continued opposition to a high end casino/resort project in Glendale. Not much hope for that city IMO.