What size do you see the Phoenix area growing into by 2050? (Mesa: buying a house, job market)

[Java Jolt]

Growth is good for us but I agree it should be a good mix of suburban growth and urban infill, not just one or the other. It's mostly that way now but I think infill is becoming more desired than living way out in the boonies.

The entire metropolitan area is growing with the west valley experiencing the fastest growth, and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down.

Unless there is another double-dip recession or some other disaster I can easily see the Phoenix MSA reaching the eight million mark by 2050 or earlier.

[new2colo]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

Growth is good for us but I agree it should be a good mix of suburban growth and urban infill, not just one or the other. It's mostly that way now but I think infill is becoming more desired than living way out in the boonies.

The entire metropolitan area is growing with the west valley experiencing the fastest growth, and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down.

Unless there is another double-dip recession or some other disaster I can easily see the Phoenix MSA reaching the eight million mark by 2050 or earlier.

It already has slowed down drastically from 2006, especially in the West Valley. Those cities are growing at a fraction of what they were ten years ago. Goodyear has added 10-15K people in 5 years, which is impressive for a city of that size, but it is much less than past years. The real growth I see is in Central Phoenix with multi story apartments going up in quite a few places. The only Valley cities growing faster this decade than they did last decade are Phoenix and Tempe.

[lovecrowds]

I voted for the 6 millions, but I think will be closer to 7 million.

I think it will grow by about 700,000 people decade as was the case from 2000-2010.

It has grown by 350,000 in the 5 years from 2010-2015.

I think the Valley's high birth rate, in-migration of families and low housing costs for a western city will be it's in favor for increased population growth.

There is also going to be more retirees then ever and many of them are drawn to warmer climates which will be a positive for population growth.

On the downside the area is prone to economic recessions more so then other parts of the country and overall warming trends and the fact it gets hotter and hotter it seems.

I would say that from 2015-2050 based on growth of about 70,000 per year that would around 2 million people to the Valley.

I don't see the population growth rate really changing much over the long-term, it seems like the population growth has been about similar since around 1990 in numbers but percentage growth has trended downward.

I would say that the population will likely be close to 7 million people in 2050, it's about 4.5 million today

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by new2colo

It already has slowed down drastically from 2006, especially in the West Valley. Those cities are growing at a fraction of what they were ten years ago. Goodyear has added 10-15K people in 5 years, which is impressive for a city of that size, but it is much less than past years. The real growth I see is in Central Phoenix with multi story apartments going up in quite a few places. The only Valley cities growing faster this decade than they did last decade are Phoenix and Tempe.

The entire Phoenix MSA is experiencing growth but the west valley is the fastest growing among all other areas.

Central Phoenix and Tempe are growing in a vertical direction with more density but they're still not growing faster than many of the suburban areas.

[raindance maggie]

Originally Posted by Red John

Currently Greater Phoenix (the Phoenix metropolitan area) has 4,574,531 people overall. Phoenix has grown tremendously in the previous decades and at times has led all of America in population growth. I expect that Greater Phoenix will continue to grow to a significantly larger population, I personally think it is ripe to add several millions more people to the area in the next 35 years.

Wow, over 4 million and still growing fast.
I hope Phoenix doesn’t add millions more, it’s plenty big already. I’d hate to see it become another LA mega metro.

[raindance maggie]

Originally Posted by Prickly Pear

I have summer affective disorder lol

If you don't walk 3+ miles daily in the summer afternoon here then frankly I don't think you have room to toot your horn about how great the summers are. The only people who say that work office jobs and have a functional car that takes them everywhere, and can afford the high AC bills and extra gas to make up for it. I onstantly have my AC off during the day even in July because I can't afford the premiums for that whole month, I use the AC in the afternoons on the days I feel like I need it most. I have also worked an outside job too, thankfully I don't anymore.

I actually get excited when the clouds wind and rain roll in.

I agree with another Valley Native who says you shouldn't relocate somewhere just for climate. My entire family is here, no family connections to anyone outside of the Phoenix metro, and it will be a hard time to get a job out of state even though I would LOVE to live somewhere colder. Odds are I will be stuck here because of those two factors. I love my family and even though I went down to Tucson for school, a mere couple hours away, I was out of the loop on a lot of family issues like my aunt's divorce, my grandfather on the verge of dying, etc. mainly because I talked to them a whole lot less because I was busy with life in Tucson. It's hard to stay a part of people's lives if you are not there physically, so for me to want to relocate its between a rock and a hard place. I would miss out on a lot of family functions and news if I moved away, and I'm not sure cooler summers are worth trading that in for. I think it's the biggest reason why many don't relocate or for people who do relocate but then come back.

A Phoenix summer isn’t anything to take lightly, it can be dangerously hot but the rest of the year is mostly warm and pleasant.
You have my sympathy on the air-conditioning matter. I don’t know how anyone can live here without it in the summer. We had to have ours replaced and it wasn’t cheap.
Other than the summer I think Arizona has a much better climate than most other states. A desire for warmth and sunshine is high on some people’s list. Weather was a major reason why we moved from Massachusetts to California, and why we came to Phoenix from Sacramento last year.
We moved here for other reasons too----
We found Phoenix to have much more to offer for big city and recreational activities along with a better job market, lower cost of living, better political climate, and better quality of life. It’s not perfect but then nowhere really is.

[raindance maggie]

Originally Posted by sexxxcblac

And since you find it important to elaborate on accomplishments...I guess you're 100 percent right. I haven't accomplished anything in my life, as a matter of fact I'm very proud of that because it has been God that has done for me every step I've taken in life.
And all you have to do is compare post history to see who really....is having a successful life.

Lol, you’re proud for not accomplishing anything and then you credit a fictional character for your life being what it is?
I don’t think you’re serious buddy, but if you are I’d hate to be in your shoes.

[raindance maggie]

Originally Posted by adriver

Depends on your reasons and your priority. I still believe to most people its primarily a health issue.



Health, I'm going back to health. Your reasons and priorities are relative. Whoever said 110 is hell on earth? Is that supposed to be a suffering reference or a heat reference? I know I'm not the only one wearing jeans year round.

Its also not just the heat or cold. Even though have you noticed how lately the Midwest/south has been getting temps just as hot as us lately. Its that they deal with humidity, the bugs, the tornadoes, the blizzards, the earthquakes, the hurricanes, the tropical storms, THE SNOW, and as soon as the snow is done the flooding. We have heat (3-5 months), dust for a few days, and microbursts occaisonaly that randomly hit a block or two once or twice a year.

^^
This.
My parents and in-laws still live in Massachusetts where the weather is always lousy, particularly the winters. Not only lousy but dangerous with the snow and ice that can shut down everything for days or weeks.
We’ve been trying to get them to move to Arizona because the warm weather would be easier on their health in so many ways. But they’re stubborn as mules and don’t want to move despite all the encouragement we try to give them.

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by raindance maggie

Wow, over 4 million and still growing fast.
I hope Phoenix doesn’t add millions more, it’s plenty big already. I’d hate to see it become another LA mega metro.

I don't think it will.

Los Angeles will always be among the big three supersized MSAs in the nation, and the Phoenix MSA will likely continue to be more comparable to Atlanta, Boston, or Detroit in size.

[i'm not a cookie]

I say it gets somewhere in between 6 and 7 million(maybe somewhere in the low 7 millions) but to say that it will get over 7.5 million is a huge stretch in my opinion. I've said this before, but I really hope that Phoenix reacts to the population growth better than LA has. I get that a lot of people move to Phoenix for suburban life, but we need smart urban planning/development and the city needs to really improve its public transportation before it's too late.


With the slow growth of Jobs in Houston and the oil business not being as booming as it once was, do you guys see Phoenix surpassing Houston as the 4th largest city in the nation before 2050?