Housing Bubble? (Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley: condo, house prices, neighborhoods)

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

I don't understand your comments about the visa concern, not that it related specifically to the topic of renting the house out, etc.

Good luck on your legal battle hopefully it is resolved soon

[Potential_Landlord]

ShampooBanana et al. - one leading indicator for housing I like are random lumber futures. They crashed last summer/fall, presaging the current weakness in the housing sector. However, they are recovering nicely, foretelling coming strength (also in the general economy).

[kent_moore]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

I don't understand your comments about the visa concern, not that it related specifically to the topic of renting the house out, etc.

I came here with a legal working visa for 2 years, I'm entitled to extend it to another 2 years until I reach the maximum of 5 years stay. The last extension given to me was only 5 months ( instead of one year). My visa will be up by May this then I will be repatriated.

About coming back, I have a pending green card application. But it still far-fetched, I expect to have it in 2020.

Sorry for the off topic.

[kent_moore]

If I were to relate my situation to the topic, we know that in some places like the Bay Area and Seattle, house/rental prices are highly driven by the demand from foreign investors and non-immigrant workers.

I don't know if DHS or whatever agency who is responsible, should review the policy about foreign investors buying US property/properties. Phoenix is becoming hot to foreign investors/workers and chances that this city will be another San Francisco or Seattle where your only option is to rent.

In Singapore and now in New Zealand, foreigners are only allowed to buy private properties >$1M price. Subsidized housing are reserved for citizens.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by kent_moore

If I were to relate my situation to the topic, we know that in some places like the Bay Area and Seattle, house/rental prices are highly driven by the demand from foreign investors and non-immigrant workers.

I don't know if DHS or whatever agency who is responsible, should review the policy about foreign investors buying US property/properties. Phoenix is becoming hot to foreign investors/workers and chances that this city will be another San Francisco or Seattle where your only option is to rent.

In Singapore and now in New Zealand, foreigners are only allowed to buy private properties >$1M price. Subsidized housing are reserved for citizens.

What data supports that Phoenix is becoming hot for foreign investors (other than perhaps Canadians)?

I'm very familiar with the Seattle market and Microsoft and then Amazon were driving the prices up and foreign investors just added fuel to the burning flame. If they invest heavily in Phoenix, it will drive the prices up.

[SarcasticPhxDude]

Prices are expected to continue to rise this year. We all know what must go up must go down. We all know real estate is cyclical. We have been in an up market for some time. I believe we will go up for a fore more years, level off and then not sure what will happen. However, by the time we go down-if someone bought now, they probably would just be at balanced equity if the market goes down and then it would go right back up anyway. 2008 will not occur again for a long time. We are at a massive shortage of inventory, and homes are still selling; and for Phoenix specifically--we finally have solid employment and more than just tourism or cheap homes driving our economy.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

ShampooBanana et al. - one leading indicator for housing I like are random lumber futures. They crashed last summer/fall, presaging the current weakness in the housing sector. However, they are recovering nicely, foretelling coming strength (also in the general economy).

Lower lumber prices are GOOD for builders and consumers because it means builders can build for cheaper, which means they need to sell for as high to achieve same margins, which means more affordability for the consumer. No doubt the cheaper lumber prices lately have helped builders keep prices lower as demand waned in the last quarter so it didn't hit their bottom lines as badly as it might have otherwise. Still, lumber overall isn't that big of a component of overall house costs as land and labor when talking overall building costs. The latter two continue to rise and aren't helping at all with affordability across the country, and not likely to alleviate with continuing scarcity of qualified labor to go along with ever decreasing amounts of available land and lots in most major metro areas.

[Burkmere]

I'm curious if there has been any affect on housing prices generally because of the ability now to live in a cheaper area and work from home via the internet, etc? Seems generally this might have some affect on housing prices because of this ability..e.g. One can pay less if one doesn't "have" to go to work each day physically in a major Metro area?

Or maybe this phenomenon doesn't have much affect. Thoughts??

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

I'm curious if there has been any affect on housing prices generally because of the ability now to live in a cheaper area and work from home via the internet, etc? Seems generally this might have some affect on housing prices because of this ability..e.g. One can pay less if one doesn't "have" to go to work each day physically in a major Metro area?

Or maybe this phenomenon doesn't have much affect. Thoughts??

We thought about it...but, and speaking as someone who is raising kids, we bought in an area that we wanted to live in. We also needed some additional square footage for my office. Could we move to a less expensive area or even out of the Phoenix Metro...sure but you have to look at all of your quality of life factors.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

We thought about it...but, and speaking as someone who is raising kids, we bought in an area that we wanted to live in. We also needed some additional square footage for my office. Could we move to a less expensive area or even out of the Phoenix Metro...sure but you have to look at all of your quality of life factors.

Yep, that's why I'm wondering if the fact many people can work remotely now has any significant affect on Metro housing prices in more expensive areas. My guess is "not much."

I suppose if one still like small town or rural living and/or had relatives they wanted to move to be closer to in those areas, it would, of course, be cheaper for them. However, probably doesn't happen enough to affect Metro prices much.