COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Pittsburgh, Penn: university, restaurants)

[zip95]

If you read Trumps new guidelines, it looks like we are super close to a phase one reopening, if we are not there already.

[sealie]

Originally Posted by zip95

If you read Trumps new guidelines, it looks like we are super close to a phase one reopening, if we are not there already.

Nope. He punted the decision back to the governors, and the governors want better data, which means better testing.

[Kippy]

Originally Posted by zip95

These experts aren’t too worried about reinfections. I tend too feel the same way, although new data could change my mind (Not hysterical anecdotal news stories).

Did you read the whole article that you provided? They are not hysterical, but they are concerned. From the article:

Until researchers have answers to those questions, serology tests—and the so-called “immunity passports” that countries such as the UK and Italy are reportedly considering—would be useless, and maybe even dangerous.

“This throws a wrench in [plans to lift mitigation efforts] in that we might not be able to reopen as quickly as we thought we could,” Parikh says. “Again, it’s too soon to tell—we still need answers on those people who got reinfected… That will help us answer how quickly we could reopen and how accurate the serology is.”

So, until they figure out what is going on with these potential reinfections, they cannot tell if the immunity passport and current plans to lift lockdowns will go as planned.

In addition, the article states that the potential reinfections could be due to different strains of the virus circulating, which would be bad news for the efficacy of the vaccines currently being developed.

So, yes; while we shouldn’t be panicked, it is important to figure out what is going on with these cases.

Even clickbait articles with sensationalistic headlines can be useful, as long as you separate the wheat from the chaff: actual facts sprinkled throughout the article and the doom and gloom.

[tyovan4]

These immunity passports are ridiculous.
Why do people have no fear of killing liberty?
Showing your passports to prove your right to move within your own community is something right out of the Soviet Union or East Germany...
and if we're going to assign different rights to different groups of citizens based on their biology, how about we just order people to sew a yellow star onto their clothes?

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by tyovan4

These immunity passports are ridiculous.
Why do people have no fear of killing liberty?
Showing your passports to prove your right to move within your own community is something right out of the Soviet Union or East Germany...
and if we're going to assign different rights to different groups of citizens based on their biology, how about we just order people to sew a yellow star onto their clothes?

Papers, we need to see your papers!

Hope it doesn't get that bad.

[gg]

Originally Posted by sealie

Nope. He punted the decision back to the governors, and the governors want better data, which means better testing.

Giving the power to the states is the correct thing to do. I applaud this decision. You can't lump all states in with NY, NJ and Louisiana. Some states are in good shape, some aren't and many others in-between.

Well done Mr President. The way he is doing it shows he has faith in a more local approach and the opposite of a strong arm approach (dictatorship). Very pleased with his decision, but not overly pleased with Wolff. Our state should be looked at more a county by county situation as Philadelphia shouldn't dominate decisions regarding the whole state.

[zip95]

Originally Posted by sealie

Nope. He punted the decision back to the governors, and the governors want better data, which means better testing.

It's way more complicated than that. The entire political dynamic has been changed.

Unless Pennsylvania Dems want to commit political suicide for a generation (which they most certainly don't) they will start opening things up county by county and phase by phase.

First, both houses of the Pa legislature voted to loosen restrictions in a CDC recommend way... Political pressure, maybe not from you but from plenty of moderates in unaffected counties.

Next, highly visible protests in the Michigan capital, and Pennsylvania protests scheduled... Again, political pressure from fearing a national spectical like that in Harrisburg.

But most importantly, other states are going to start opening up their economies following the guidelines. There's no way the governor will be able to justify maintaining Washington County's 20% unemployment rate! with their 71 cases and 1 death. It's economically and politically untenable. Did you know that throughout the history of the world, the most common reason for revolution has been leadership that's unable to provide for their citizenry?

And finally, of course there's going to be testing. Do you think all of the PhDs developing the guidelines are stupid?

[sealie]

You said “super close”. I would have said “getting nearer” if I were you and had wanted to make the nuanced point you were making in your response. I don’t think the guidelines are stupid, I don’t think the developers of them are stupid - heck, I don’t think university chancellors making contingency plans for fall are stupid - but I do think people are reading nuanced responses and painting them in black and white whenit’s not called for.

[szug-bot]

April 17...cases reported from last 14 days, starting with most distant:


76, 53, 37, 47, 31, 39, 29, 48, 21, 19, 15, 11, 21, 22

[zip95]

Originally Posted by gg

Giving the power to the states is the correct thing to do. I applaud this decision. You can't lump all states in with NY, NJ and Louisiana. Some states are in good shape, some aren't and many others in-between.

Well done Mr President. The way he is doing it shows he has faith in a more local approach and the opposite of a strong arm approach (dictatorship). Very pleased with his decision, but not overly pleased with Wolff. Our state should be looked at more a county by county situation as Philadelphia shouldn't dominate decisions regarding the whole state.

I think the plan unveiled yesterday is pretty good - a nuanced approach based on facts-on-the-ground rather than flawed models.

I really like the "sentinel" program that will look for local flare ups and direct resources in a targeted manner. What will be controversial (as soon as the media is looking for new issue to hype) is the testing of asymptomatic individuals in "high risk" areas, which include Native American reservations, inner cities, and lower income areas.

I also like how data will determine what can open and what must stay closed, and counties can move back and for between phases as needed.

Personally, I love that Allegheny county meets the criteria for phase 1, excess hospital capacity and a decreasing case trend line for at least two weeks.

I don't think it's perfect, but it's the only realistic solution I've seen. The "let it rip" and their "endless shutdown" counterparts are living in fantasy land.