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This is why the industry won't implode (sorry, flat-Earthers): source: Solar Panel Cost Trends (Tons of Charts) The price of panels has plummeted, making the subsidies less necessary.
They will be necessary as long as it takes more energy (by consuming fossil fuels) to produce these cells than they will ever produce during their expected lifetime.
Also, the amount of coal being used, especially in SE Asia, is causing the worst air pollution man has ever experienced. More countries are enacting stricter pollution controls which adversely affect coal. Coal use shrinking in the future is the result of pollution. And the coal industry would shrink very quickly if we stopped subsidizing pollution globally.
Responses to your two points.
No argument about coal. This is why the the Chinese are building and investing in nuclear technology, not solar.
Nuclear is the only viable technology that could replace coal to produce the energy needed by this vastly over populated planet.
You are backing a loser on this one Coalman. There is enough art coming to cut the cost of PV solar to 1/4 of what it is now...maybe more. And a lot may enable significant increase in efficiency...the best area to improve. There are also almost certain to be some compromise on the phase down of the rebates. I still think we need some better solution to the storage problem but some of the recent technology results indicate that is coming along.
I would agree the base capabiltiy problem is still laying there but another half or so of the PV costs will start to enable the use of different cost models. You enable higher op costs to meet the base need as the PV solar costs get lower. I would also think rather minor changes in the solar panel mounting may let it get deeper into the peak periood also allowing the economics to move.
D]espite additions of substantial wind, solar, and nuclear capacity, when properly adjusted for capacity factor (the amount of annual energy produced per unit of capacity) to reflect production capability, the amount of new coal energy added to the China grid last year exceeded new solar energy by 17 times, new wind energy by more than 4 times, and even new hydro by more than 3 times. And, despite having more than 30 new nuclear reactors under construction, China’s new nuclear capability was still a fraction of new coal energy.
And no matter how you slice it, their is really nothing that can be don about global carbon emissions unless you want to keep 2-3 billion people living in huts without electricity
People have no idea just how large our energy demand is.
Just to keep up with the annual increase in energy demand, the world would have to install about 25 times as much photovoltaic capacity as what now exists in Germany. And it would have to achieve that daunting task every year..
And to get 10 terawatts of of solar power (we currently consume 16 terawatts and rising fast), we would have to coverONE MILLION ROOFS A DAY FOR 50 YEARS STRAIGHT!
Even if we build 1000 nuclear power plants worldwide in 5 years (impossible, as there are only 384 in existence now), that won't put a dent http://i55.tinypic.com/2ep1xg7.png
They will be necessary as long as it takes more energy (by consuming fossil fuels) to produce these cells than they will ever produce during their expected lifetime.
Sourcce? I think latest thinking is that the industry makes net energy and is going to go at it great guns over the next years. For instance...
They will be necessary as long as it takes more energy (by consuming fossil fuels) to produce these cells than they will ever produce during their expected lifetime.
Not at all true....You should research a subject before posting... The pay back time for the energy required to manufacture solar panels is four years, and most panels will be in use for 30 years or more. That is 26 years of free electricity.
Results suggest that the industry was a net consumer of electricity as recently as 2010. However, there is a >50% that in 2012 the PV industry is a net electricity provider and will “pay back” the electrical energy required for its early growth before 2020.
They begrudgingly admit that it takes more energy to produce solar cells, than they will ever produce. It then spreads some "predictions" that this might change in the future. It hasn't.
As long as you have to consume more fossil fuel to produce solar cells than these cells will ever produce, then the industry isn't viable. It makes more sense to use the same fossil fuels to directly produce electricity.
The only viable solar technology is direct thermal. i.e. Panels to heat water or mirrors to direct sunlight to produce steam.
Results suggest that the industry was a net consumer of electricity as recently as 2010. However, there is a >50% that in 2012 the PV industry is a net electricity provider and will “pay back” the electrical energy required for its early growth before 2020.
They begrudgingly admit that it takes more energy to produce solar cells, than they will ever produce. It then spreads some "predictions" that this might change in the future. It hasn't.
As long as you have to consume more fossil fuel to produce solar cells than these cells will ever produce, then the industry isn't viable. It makes more sense to use the same fossil fuels to directly produce electricity.
The only viable solar technology is direct thermal. i.e. Panels to heat water or mirrors to direct sunlight to produce steam.
Uhh no. What it says is the payback is under way but does not go positive until 2020...and from there on out the net grows fast.
The direct solar is not going to cut it particularly after the Ivanapah problems. Perhaps if anyone can come up with a way to get thermal storage working at high efficiency...
Then again a utility scale batter could change thing around for PV.
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