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Why not? People lie to pollsters. Its a fun game to misdirect those who should have no right to bother the recipient.
Most pollsters I've encountered are quite polite and really not "bothering" anyone, though admittedly I have not encountered many...
Obviously, we can always choose not to participate, hang up the phone if you bother to answer a unrecognized caller in the first place. "No thanks" as you pass the person with the clip board on the sidewalk, but if a person does decide to participate, why "misdirect" or be less than honest with your responses? Only screws up the results for those who might like some accurate readings/results from these polls.
Might be you think that "fun" or clever, but professional polling agencies know a bit more than you think, about how to root out the BS, for those who would like something other than BS results.
Do you understand the concept of "noise" in statistics? I guess you don't. Your "surge" seems to be from 22% in January to 28% in August. Well, how come you weren't telling us GOP registration was "cratering" when it went from 31% in Feb 2017 to 22% in Jan 2018? And what about the "surge" in democratic registration when it went from 25% in Jan 2017 to 31% just the next month?
For something like that you can't just just look at one or two data points, you need to look at longer-term trends. The variations from month to month are just survey noise.
Relax.
I get there is a margin of error in the polling data. So lets look longer term:
If you look at 2008. The dems did well. Gallup polling shows them ahead 3 to 10% most of the year preceding the election. Obama did well the dems in congress did well. I mention this because many on the left expect a repeat of 2008 this year. Yet the numbers from Gallup do not show this at all.
If you look at the numbers since Trump took over. The GOP has at best been up 1 or 2 points while the dems have been up 5 or 6 points at best. But this year the GOP has been doing slowly better and the Dems are slipping. Yes it bounces around each time but the trend is obvious.
However nonstop the media and dem pundits have said a blue wave is building. There is nothing in the gallup numbers that show that. If anything it appears the GOP is gaining ground.
I get there is a margin of error in the polling data. So lets look longer term:
If you look at 2008. The dems did well. Gallup polling shows them ahead 3 to 10% most of the year preceding the election. Obama did well the dems in congress did well. I mention this because many on the left expect a repeat of 2008 this year. Yet the numbers from Gallup do not show this at all.
If you look at the numbers since Trump took over. The GOP has at best been up 1 or 2 points while the dems have been up 5 or 6 points at best. But this year the GOP has been doing slowly better and the Dems are slipping. Yes it bounces around each time but the trend is obvious.
However nonstop the media and dem pundits have said a blue wave is building. There is nothing in the gallup numbers that show that. If anything it appears the GOP is gaining ground.
Do you see this blue wave in the Gallup numbers?
You seem to be confusing party registration with election preferences. Sometimes democrats vote republican, and sometimes republicans vote democratic. The degree to which each of those happens depends on the prevailing political winds. Not to mention that many states have no party registration, and that increasing numbers are independents, which by itself would tell you nothing about how they're going to vote in an upcoming election.
If you look at the last (1st presidential term) mid-term election in 2010, you see that republicans went from 28% in January to 29% in the last poll in late October. A rise of just 1% (just noise). Democrats went from 34% to 32% during the same stretch - again, little more than noise. And yet, democrats got clobbered in the mid-terms that year. Point being, once again, you cannot tell what is going to happen in an election just by looking at party registration.
You seem to be confusing party registration with election preferences. Sometimes democrats vote republican, and sometimes republicans vote democratic. The degree to which each of those happens depends on the prevailing political winds. Not to mention that many states have no party registration, and that increasing numbers are independents, which by itself would tell you nothing about how they're going to vote in an upcoming election.
If you look at the last (1st presidential term) mid-term election in 2010, you see that republicans went from 28% in January to 29% in the last poll in late October. A rise of just 1% (just noise). Democrats went from 34% to 32% during the same stretch - again, little more than noise. And yet, democrats got clobbered in the mid-terms that year. Point being, once again, you cannot tell what is going to happen in an election just by looking at party registration.
You make some points. However now after I have pointed out the obvious in the Gallup polling you have changed and party affiliation is not longer a relevant barometer. I believe It counts along with other factors.
I am not some huge fan of Gallup. They just have more extensive data than almost anyone else. And if I mention Rasmussen the left thinks they are a right wing conspiracy even though they nailed the 2016 race. So I find their number interesting. Could be a bloodbath for the GOP or perhaps not. Looking increasingly like not. And after what the dems expected in 2016 I don't how you can be confident at all.
I have no idea how it will turn out. As a libertarian all I know is my candidates will lose in all the races and the two party machine will roll on regardless whether its title has a D or R at the beginning.
Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 09-12-2018 at 01:18 PM..
I get there is a margin of error in the polling data. So lets look longer term:
However nonstop the media and dem pundits have said a blue wave is building. There is nothing in the gallup numbers that show that. If anything it appears the GOP is gaining ground.
Look at which way the numbers have been heading......obviously this can change either way, but denial of these numbers is ridiculous.
Of course, even with those numbers...an 18% chance of the GOP holding Congress exists. But those numbers tend to change as election day nears. That is, as less time is available for "october surprises" and other world events to occur, the odds naturally change.
Look at which way the numbers have been heading......obviously this can change either way, but denial of these numbers is ridiculous.
I don't care either way. I am a libertarian and I am not in denial about anything and loathe both parties almost equally. I just think its odd that the dems are so sure about the midterms when you were also so sure about the 2016 election that many on left predicted would give congress back to the dems. As well as clinton winning.
The key to all of this is not thumping your chest and bragging about how the polls guarantee victory but actually vote. Seems like in 2016 many on the left forgot that part.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
Of course, even with those numbers...an 18% chance of the GOP holding Congress exists. But those numbers tend to change as election day nears. That is, as less time is available for "october surprises" and other world events to occur, the odds naturally change.
fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on election day. I am not sure you want to quote them. There was a point when 538 gave Trump a 1% chance of winning. I tried to find it on their website but apparently they were smart and pulled it.
fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on election day. I am not sure you want to quote them. There was a point when 538 gave Trump a 1% chance of winning. I tried to find it on their website but apparently they were smart and pulled it.
I don't think you understand probability. Pollsters predict that a given event will occur x number of times out of 100. In other words, if Trump had a 28% chance of winning and the election was held 100 times he would win 28 times, they weren't inaccurate, he got lucky and beat the odds.
I don't think you understand probability. Pollsters predict that a given event will occur x number of times out of 100. In other words, if Trump had a 28% chance of winning and the election was held 100 times he would win 28 times, they weren't inaccurate, he got lucky and beat the odds.
I understand that.
The problem was the methodology to get to 28% was flawed. Its much more subjective than say the odds of a certain card coming up in blackjack. If the methodology is wrong determining the likelihood of Trump winning then its not just simply Trump being lucky. Perhaps Trump had a 55% chance of winning but the data was flawed or perhaps people lied and said the would vote for Clinton but voter for Trump instead. And unlike Blackjack where if the remaining cards are known anyone who understands the game knows the odds of busting or hitting 21. The numbers were all over the map regarding Trump's chances. There was no consensus except that all expected him to lose.
So when we get to the 2018 midterms we have the same issues as 2016. But if you think the dems have the blue wave on their side then stay home don't vote. You have it in the bag why waste you time voting.
I don't care either way. I am a libertarian and I am not in denial about anything and loathe both parties almost equally. I just think its odd that the dems are so sure about the midterms when you were also so sure about the 2016 election that many on left predicted would give congress back to the dems. As well as clinton winning.
The key to all of this is not thumping your chest and bragging about how the polls guarantee victory but actually vote. Seems like in 2016 many on the left forgot that part.
fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on election day. I am not sure you want to quote them. There was a point when 538 gave Trump a 1% chance of winning. I tried to find it on their website but apparently they were smart and pulled it.
.
They didn't pull anything - and a 28% was quite high - you have that's close to 1/3rd, like picking two numbers for a single die and having one of them come up.
An everyday happening, of course!
You obviously don't understand odds or statistics, so I may be talking to a brick wall. As you can see from 538, the Comey letter changed everything. Surely you can read that much!!!
There was a point where Trump was at about 10% but that was before Comey and some of the fake news and other Russia propaganda. It was about 70/30 on election day and 538 was within 1.5 points on actual votes...
They also called for Hillary winning the popular vote - lo and behold, that was true.
No polling is perfect. But all you are noticing is that 538 reflected Comey and reality. Nothing to brag about if your point is that polling doesn't follow the real world....
Anything can happen. Lots of people win the lottery. But the stuff on 538 is as close as you can get in the real world to the actual odds. If you were a bookie you'd be using something close to that......
My hope is that you have the capacity to understand this stuff - because, if you don't, the best course of action is not to even look at it or discuss it since you will gain nothing from that.
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