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And that is easily high enough, although I don't count 538 because they got the swing states wrong in 2016 and predicted a Hillary landslide.
Once a loser always a loser, and 538 is the definition of loser.
538 did not pick a Hillary landslide, and pretty much everyone got a few swing states wrong in 2016. If you applied the once wrong always wrong theory, then why are you including Rasmussen?
yep..... and, combined with the other current polls, equates to a -11% RGP rating. not good.
keep in mind that there are also upcoming polls from CNN and ABC/wapo that will surely drop his RCP average ( my guess would be between -12.5% to -13.5% )
thanks for starting the thread tho.
Trump wins the 2020 election if his RCP average is 40, because the disconnect between Trump supporters and the media has reached an all-time high, so highly unlikely that a pollster will reach the Trump base.
It was a lot easier to poll the Trump base in 2016, and pollsters still couldn't judge the swing states.
Anything over 40 is game over for Dems.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
538 did not pick a Hillary landslide, and pretty much everyone got a few swing states wrong in 2016. If you applied the once wrong always wrong theory, then why are you including Rasmussen?
All the polls are wrong, to varying degrees.
I've never praised Rasmussen, by the way.
You can't reach the Trump base with pollsters.
In 2016 Trump’s polls average was 42%, the lowest of any candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.
In 2020 it should be even lower because the Trump base is even harder to reach now that the media has lost it.
but then you're claiming the need to add an additional 10% to make the numbers correct without supplying any statistical data to support your claim. you're just making stuff up based on your feelings.
but then you're claiming the need to add an additional 10% to make the numbers correct without supplying any statistical data to support your claim. you're just making stuff up based on your feelings.
I didn't make up any data at all, because I never adjusting the poll figures.
All the poll figures are exactly as RCP provided.
I just said I personally factor in silent Trump voters.
If you can't handle that, that's your problem.
trying to find anything to support josh hawley's claim that "20,000 or something" were turned away. i can find mention that it was a "full house" at an 11,000 capacity venue but no independent confirmation that anyone was turned away.
i know the numbers in the OP are directly from RCP but your claim that they need an additional 10% to be correct is what we're talking about.
It's the math cultists do to make themselves feel better.
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