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I can't believe so many posts would predict a GOP sweep, if Trump is still around it's going to be a slaughter on the GOP. Congressional elections are based on popular vote, not an electoral college, on top of that, there are far more minorities and women than there are white conservatives. Unless there's a big change in the national mood, and the Republican congress starts delivering, they will lose there super majority advantage.
Regarding the Senate the seats up do matter. Fact of the matter is there are far more Democratic seats up in 2018 than Republican ones. Regardless of the political climate, the Republicans face a much easier map. Granted the much easier map doesn't always pan out, the GOP had the easier map in 2012 and lost seats, the Dems had a far easier map in 2016 and while they did pick up seats, they picked up less than expected
They had the opportunity to elect a more moderate candidate but they stuck with Nancy Pelosi. Since they had to replace Debbie Wasserman Schultz because she was caught screwing Bernie Sanders the politicians running for the DNC chair are far left too.
Moderate Dems = Third Way Democrats = Clinton Democrats = Identity Politics Dems = Wall St. Dems. No thanks.
GOP will clean up in 2018, democrats do not turn out for non-presidential years.
They did in 2006 and 2008. The Democrats swept congress after Bush wrecked the economy and got us into needless wars. We will see a repeat of that in 2018, especially after the madness of Donald Trump. Barely been a month and Trump's White House is in chaos. He is angering so many people across the country and the massive protests mirror the Tea Party movement which led to the Republicans taking back congress in 2010. The difference is the current protest movement is far bigger than the Tea Party at its peak.
They did in 2006 and 2008. The Democrats swept congress after Bush wrecked the economy and got us into needless wars. We will see a repeat of that in 2018, especially after the madness of Donald Trump. Barely been a month and Trump's White House is in chaos. He is angering so many people across the country and the massive protests mirror the Tea Party movement which led to the Republicans taking back congress in 2010. The difference is the current protest movement is far bigger than the Tea Party at its peak.
you keep talking about Trump but keep forgetting to talk about the state of your own party, which is a mess. A weird mishmash of corporatists and crazy far leftists with moderates struggling to breathe or get attention. There is no clear vision and the riots and protests by Soros paid thugs and college students is making you look bad. Not good
I mean Jesus, you guys just re elected NANCY PELOSI as your speaker!
as 2016 showed, Just running as "I am not the other guy" is not enough
you keep talking about Trump but keep forgetting to talk about the state of your own party, which is a mess. A weird mishmash of corporatists and crazy far leftists with moderates struggling to breathe or get attention. There is no clear vision and the riots and protests by Soros paid thugs and college students is making you look bad. Not good
I mean Jesus, you guys just re elected NANCY PELOSI as your speaker!
as 2016 showed, Just running as "I am not the other guy" is not enough
The Democrats will come together but the distaste for Trump and what him and his administration is doing to the country will bring out Democrats in large numbers in 2018. Republicans will be complacent and less motivated to come out and vote especially if the job numbers don't improve or they get worse under Trump.
Trump and his policies are causing a backlash that will continue to build. The President's party usually loses seats during his term. Democrats will pick up a seat or two.
Is this really what you believe, or are just hoping for
Many of the numerous (D's) up for re-election are in states that Trump carried. Conversely only 9 (R's) are up this time around. The numbers alone do not bode well for your prediction.
But how about this. Why don't we make a wager and the loser has to pay $100 to a charity like St Judes, Shriners Hospital, or Make a Wish. You pick.
I predict the (R's) will gain, and you say the (D's) will gain in 2018. Do we have an agreement as to the bet, the amount, and a choice of those 3 charities?
Regarding the Senate the seats up do matter. Fact of the matter is there are far more Democratic seats up in 2018 than Republican ones. Regardless of the political climate, the Republicans face a much easier map. Granted the much easier map doesn't always pan out, the GOP had the easier map in 2012 and lost seats, the Dems had a far easier map in 2016 and while they did pick up seats, they picked up less than expected
The problem for the GOP is that Trump and the republican congress have promised big things from rebuilding the middle class to jobs to health care to Wall Street to taxes to immigration. Taken as a systematic agenda, it could look like an organized climb back to prosperity, but so far it looks like they had an agenda but no plan on how to get there. Trump is an experiment, he's the outsider that would break up the Washington elite, in fact I had high hopes he could do it. But there seems to be a Washington Mafia that doesn't want him messing with the system, you can argue where that seat of power comes from but I'm willing to bet it's non partisan. If they don't start getting things under control soon, they'll be out of time.
>I don't understand how anyone who isn't an illegal alien, a felon, or dependent on the government could vote for a member of today's Democrat Party.<
They are not social Darwinists? I did not vote for any Dems but I know a good number of mainstreet GOP moderates that got sick of the Tea Party purity tests and being called RINOs. No they did not become Dems, but stopped voting straight ticket.
Answer to original question.
R+4.
Simple geography.
R mostly running in safe states.
Dems have 4 in GOP states. Barring someone getting charged with something criminal, the only vulnerable R I see is NV.
The problem for the GOP is that Trump and the republican congress have promised big things from rebuilding the middle class to jobs to health care to Wall Street to taxes to immigration. Taken as a systematic agenda, it could look like an organized climb back to prosperity, but so far it looks like they had an agenda but no plan on how to get there. Trump is an experiment, he's the outsider that would break up the Washington elite, in fact I had high hopes he could do it. But there seems to be a Washington Mafia that doesn't want him messing with the system, you can argue where that seat of power comes from but I'm willing to bet it's non partisan. If they don't start 8getting things under control soon, they'll be out of time.
I would generally agree, but keep in mind the difference between the House and Senate. A toxic political climate could really hurt one side or the other in the House. It might not have the same impact in the Senate, because the map, what seats are up are very important as well.
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