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I have never heard the second quote, and the current situation is that the EU is not willing to change it's deal or renogiate and Britain and it's Pariament are not willing to accept the current deal, so as far as I can see unless the EU are bluffing there is no alternative to a no deal, and as a nation we must be properly prepared.
The EU really hasn't thought this one through properly, as after the no deal divorce settlent, they then have to try and secure access to their biggest market with a over $100 a year EU surplus and have to try and convince Britain to keep close defence, security and other collboration. I am sorry but there will be pressure for Britain to pull out of all kinds of other deals if there is no trade deal, and future relations will be very poor indeed.
The Ireland question is settled. There's going to be no backstop.
????? Never said were would be. I was responding to the poster pointing out the Scotland's trade with Britain as a reason for Scotland staying with Britain during a Brexit. As if the Irelands won't consider their own interests.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
Nobody knows that the EU is "done dealing". They have a notorious history of "dealing" at the very last moment. You confuse this with May's lack of ability to push them into a corner to make them bend the knee. And in the end, IMO, they will bend the knee. The money says they will. BTW, you don't speak for the "entire world".
I'm going by what they said. I'm sure that the EU would prefer it if the UK didn't leave, but I really wonder why you think the rest of Europe would bend the knee to the UK. I don't think that's a given at all. When did Germany or France EVER consent to bend the knee to Britain???? Or Poland, or Italy? These are old divisions being stirred up. And don't pretend that these divisions haven't been a factor for those supporting Brexit.
Where did I ever say that I speak for anyone but me? Unless you think that me expressing my opinion means that I think I speak for the world. If that is what you think, might I suggest you look in the mirror?
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
Brexit will have 0 effect on NATO.
You apparently didn't read BraveNewWorld's post. That poster very clearly said that that the UK might withhold their troops from Europe if the UK doesn't get what it wants.
I'm quite sure your prediction will have exactly zero effect on what happens in November 2019 and later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
UK "fracture". What does that even mean? It sounds like FUD made up by someone against BRexit.
By fracture, I mean the breakup of the UK. Which, as I have said, I think is a real possibility. Northern Ireland voted against Brexit. Perhaps you missed "the troubles" when many people in Northern Ireland and the Brits, along with many other northern Irish, were bombing and shooting each other. You might want to read up on it.
It seems to me that a lot of people think that come October 31, one way or the other the disagreements will be over. I think that they will be just beginning.
I have been thinking about it a little, and this is how I think it will end.
Mid October
Parliament passes a law requiring Johnson to negotiate an extension (100%)
Late October
Johnson go to the EU to negotiate an extension (80%)
Johnson resigns, or loses no confidence and someone else go to the EU to negotiate an extension (20%)
31 October
(1) EU accepts the extension (80% chance)
(2) EU refuses extension, parliament revokes brexit (10% chance)
(3) EU refuses extension, no deal brexit (10% chance)
I have been thinking about it a little, and this is how I think it will end.
Mid October
Parliament passes a law requiring Johnson to negotiate an extension (100%)
Late October
Johnson go to the EU to negotiate an extension (80%)
Johnson resigns, or loses no confidence and someone else go to the EU to negotiate an extension (20%)
31 October
(1) EU accepts the extension (80% chance)
(2) EU refuses extension, parliament revokes brexit (10% chance)
(3) EU refuses extension, no deal brexit (10% chance)
I am not a remainer, just a pessimist.
I don't know about this.
Though I agree that the chances of Brexit with the deal are slim to none, I suspect the chances for a no-deal Brexit are higher than 10%.
Though I agree that the chances of Brexit with the deal are slim to none, I suspect the chances for a no-deal Brexit are higher than 10%.
It is almost certain that Parliament will demand that Johnson ask for another extension, they did it to May just to make sure she keeps her promise. If Johnson refuses, then tory rebels will back a vote of no-confidence and get in someone who will do what Parliament says.
Hence, someone is going to go to Brussels to ask for an extension. I don't see it as very likely that EU refuses an extension. If Johnson try to act difficult, they can still make up a plan and give it to him knowing that parliament will back it.
The only chance for no-deal brexit is if EU refuses an extension, and the Parliament do not revoke brexit. I don't think the chance of that happening is more than 10%. I did not get this number out of thin air, take a look at this article.
It is almost certain that Parliament will demand that Johnson ask for another extension, they did it to May just to make sure she keeps her promise. If Johnson refuses, then tory rebels will back a vote of no-confidence and get in someone who will do what Parliament says.
Hence, someone is going to go to Brussels to ask for an extension. I don't see it as very likely that EU refuses an extension. If Johnson try to act difficult, they can still make up a plan and give it to him knowing that parliament will back it.
The only chance for no-deal brexit is if EU refuses an extension, and the Parliament do not revoke brexit. I don't think the chance of that happening is more than 10%. I did not get this number out of thin air, take a look at this article.
Parliament can't demand anything, even if it passes motions the Goverment they are not law and can be ignored.
As for the extension, it's something the EU would only consider in order to tie up a deal and even if Johnson were to ask for an extension which he won't, the EU are unlikely to grant one.
Unless a new plan is agreed, the new prime minister does not need to do anything for a no-deal Brexit to happen. This is because the UK's departure on 31 October is already written into law. The prime minister could just run the clock down.
The main obstacle in terms pf Parliament is whether the government has to introduce any new laws at all. The prime minister might want to pass legislation to help prepare the UK for a no deal, for example in trade. But it is up to them whether or not to do so.
Parliament can vote in terms of 'No Deal' but it actually means little as they can't prevent one.
A vote of no confidence is unlikely, as is bringing down the Government and even in the unlikely situation this were to happen then Farage and his Brexit party are waiting in the wings.
Farage's Brexit Party is now the largest political party in trhe European Parliament, whilst Boris Johnson's approach has seen the Toiries gain massive support, and they are currently 10 points ahead in the polls.
As for MP's bringing down their own Government and disregarding the views of their own grassroots members, and then going back to them same member in their local constituencies and their local voters in order to be re-elected, it would be the end of their poilitical careers, it would be the end of their poilitical careers, but would be amusing to watch.
Last edited by Brave New World; 07-30-2019 at 05:59 AM..
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