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I'm not sure this is such great news. We still have ~2000 people dying every day from Covid-19, the #1 cause of death right now. The fact that many people may have had it asymptomatically doesn't help the dead.
Virtually all new deaths are in three states (New York, Maryland and Virginia).
To say ALL states must stay shut because of 3 states skewing the numbers is nuts. The states that do open need to take is slow, but they should open up. Those states that still have the highest number of cases should stay shut.
In other words ... We're doomed. All because people are proud of themselves for being stupid. Ugh.
People with no real evidence often resort to calling names and outlandish theories. Their opinions and ideas are worthless.
Another false equivalence. Heart disease is not contagious.
That's bad news, then, if so many people can transmit the disease without knowing they're sick.
How disingenuous of you. And neither ABC nor AP are newspapers.
You mean like corporate welfare to large banks, auto makers, and other giant corporations?
Do you ever wonder why that is? Could it be ... [most] people are staying home?
I know heart disease is not contagious, professor. That's why my comparison was not how heart disease is the same as CV, but how Americans' propensity to ignore risky behaviors can contribute to coming down with a serious condition. But you wanted a counterpoint so bad, you went with the low-hanging fruit that didn't convey the meaning of my post.
It could be the isolation, it could be the staying home, or it could be the virus follows a natural cycle that occurs regardless of peoples' behavior. But, the metrics are there, the risk is abating, and they suggests it's time to reopen the country.
AND once again we are shown that the experts have yet to make definitive statements on this virus, for any of us to do so is ridiculous.
I will repeat....let's start seriously approaching operating with this health crisis. Many businesses have adapted and can share what has worked, and what hasn't.
I will continue to do my part of increasing spending on dining out in my area. It isn't unreasonable for the federal and state governments to encourage people to explore online shopping, delivery, finding out how their favorite local business can be supported.
How do major manufacutring plants operate with this issue -- some are. What are they doing that may help other facilities that may have closed.
Airlines, cruise ships, I don't know -- I think even if you opened those businesses up completely -- they are in deep trouble.
One thing for me to consider going to a store for some clothes with new precautions -- masks, hand sanitizer, plexi glass....social distancing...another thing to ask me to get on a plane.
Concerts, plays, sporting events.......I can't see there being a sell out crowd.......
We've paid money to stream online concerts. It's extreme but that could happen Sporting events -- no fans? Limited fans?
All of it requires some kind of ramp up of testing, monitoring and knowledge of the virus so people feel secure.
Plus, as the numbers go down, those who want to keep the panic going and the economy closed are changing the metrics. Now they are counting COVID deaths as those who “probably” had it by virtue of symptoms.
As well as moving the goalpost. The original plan was to flatten the curve. Now that the curve is flattened, they've changed the "plan" to keeping things closed until there are zero new cases or a vaccine.
Virtually all new deaths are in three states (New York, Maryland and Virginia).
To say ALL states must stay shut because of 3 states skewing the numbers is nuts. The states that do open need to take is slow, but they should open up. Those states that still have the highest number of cases should stay shut.
Yes we don't have as many deaths but South Carolina is still seeing increases in cases and deaths...it's all relative.
We aren't ready to 'open up', especially given that tourism is one of the biggest sources of income. Until Boeing Volvo, the big manufacturers are ready to be back full swing -- I don't think beach communities are ready to let people from all over descend on their community bringing all kinds of whatever.
As well as moving the goalpost. The original plan was to flatten the curve. Now that the curve is flattened, they've changed the "plan" to keeping things closed until there are zero new cases or a vaccine.
But the curve is not flattened for all.
WE aren't projected to hit our peak for a few weeks.
Don't forget "Wave 2" which is guaranteed to come back 50x stronger just because it happened in 1918 with a completely different type of virus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toyman at Jewel Lake
Where did you get your degree in immunology or public health again?
It doesn't require a degree for either, just knowledge of facts.
Spanish Flu virus was obtained from lung tissue samples from an Alaskan village of Inuit people who were 100% wiped out. They were buried in permafrost which preserved their bodies.
The genome was sequenced and discovered to be an avian flu variant most likely transmitted through the feces of migrating waterfowl such as ducks and geese.
It was operative in 1915.
It infected British and French soldiers in the region of Etaples, France.
Sometime around 1917 the virus mutated again to take on more mammalian traits, probably the result of having human hosts for some time, and became more deadly.
There were, in fact, two waves that swept through the US. It came through, died down, and then re-emerged a second time.
While that is true, it is not proof COVID-19 will do the same.
Corona virus do mutate frequently, about every 2-3 years, but no one can say with certainty it will mutated into a more harmful strain.
Unlike rubella, polio, diphtheria, typhus and such, there is no such thing as life-time immunity to any of the virus that cause Influenza-like Illnesses, which includes all corona virus.
That's why it's recommended you get a flu "shot" --not a vaccine -- every year, because you never get life-time immunity to influenza.
In theory, the flu shot only gives you enough immunity to get through flu season, which is October-March and it's only 60% effective, meaning 4 in 10 still get the flu anyway.
Immunity for the various strains of corona virus is 4-12 weeks.
COVID-19 is not likely to be different. That means people who had it March will be susceptible again by June.
There are documented cases of people getting Spanish Flu twice, once during the first wave and again during the second wave. The most famous of those people was baseball player Babe Ruth.
The possibility of a 2nd wave of COVID-19 is very high, especially since Summer is more active with large gatherings of people.
AND once again we are shown that the experts have yet to make definitive statements on this virus, for any of us to do so is ridiculous.
I will repeat....let's start seriously approaching operating with this health crisis. Many businesses have adapted and can share what has worked, and what hasn't.
I will continue to do my part of increasing spending on dining out in my area. It isn't unreasonable for the federal and state governments to encourage people to explore online shopping, delivery, finding out how their favorite local business can be supported.
How do major manufacutring plants operate with this issue -- some are. What are they doing that may help other facilities that may have closed.
Airlines, cruise ships, I don't know -- I think even if you opened those businesses up completely -- they are in deep trouble.
One thing for me to consider going to a store for some clothes with new precautions -- masks, hand sanitizer, plexi glass....social distancing...another thing to ask me to get on a plane.
Concerts, plays, sporting events.......I can't see there being a sell out crowd.......
We've paid money to stream online concerts. It's extreme but that could happen Sporting events -- no fans? Limited fans?
All of it requires some kind of ramp up of testing, monitoring and knowledge of the virus so people feel secure.
Sounds reasonable to me. I think there is going to be some trepidation for some time, but some will take the chance and others will follow suit in the future.
Yes we don't have as many deaths but South Carolina is still seeing increases in cases and deaths...it's all relative.
We aren't ready to 'open up', especially given that tourism is one of the biggest sources of income. Until Boeing Volvo, the big manufacturers are ready to be back full swing -- I don't think beach communities are ready to let people from all over descend on their community bringing all kinds of whatever.
Nope.
In the last week:
4/13 - 4 new cases, 6 deaths
4/14 - 3 new cases, 11 deaths
4/15 - 3 new cases, 10 deaths
4/16 - 8 new cases, 2 deaths
4/17 - 4 new cases, 6 deaths
4/18 - 4 new cases, 3 deaths
4/19 - 3 new cases, 1 death
I don't think "increase" means what you think it means. Facts matter.
It is a well known fact that women are more risk averse. Maybe too risk averse?
You know I love you, but ... What the hell does that have to do with anything, especially with what I wrote?
It's not raining right now; go out and get some fresh air!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark
Of course that means there are that many more people who already had it and thus can't transmit the disease and also that many more people that can provide plasma to treat people who get sick.
We don't know that. We don't know that someone who has recovered can or cannot become reinfected. There's too little evidence to make a determination one way or another.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark
Only in your head. The fact that evidence is coming out that most people had it already tells me social distancing is just keeping people home who have no risk of getting it.
See above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill
And I think the federal guidelines for phasing in a return to 'normal life' are good.
2 weeks of decline, start to open up. I do have some issues with something like a gym being in the first phase -- seems counter intuitive.
First -- local businesses, manufacturing -- the engines of the community -- let's get them back up in running.
I would think tourism should and is a tough sell -- so maybe not jump on that to quick, especially given that other areas maybe hotspots
It's going to be a long time before I go to the gym - maybe never - or to tourist areas, movie theaters, concerts, even restaurants. The money I've saved and the weight I've lost since I'm cooking at home, not stopping at Wawa for coffee and a Sizzli every morning ...
Yes, service businesses, factories, retail etc. need to get going first, and soon. All this time they should have been making plans for reopening - making sure employees and customers are as safe as possible, etc. I wonder how many have?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy
Is that your professional opinion Dr. Stark?
LMAO. Thanks for the laugh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ringwise
Virtually all new deaths are in three states (New York, Maryland and Virginia).
Incorrect. Infections and deaths are still on the rise in Pennsylvania and many other states.
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