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So - if practically every expert on the topic says it's new, and we know very little about it - we're going to argue with them and say, THAT'S A LIE! YOU KNOW ALL ABOUT IT!
They don't. Obviously. They have to make the best guess at every fork in the road, because they - in fact - do NOT know much about it - which they have tried telling everyone for four months now.
It IS still - clearly - highly contagious. But touching stuff was NEVER the main vector. It was (and remains) possible - but what percent? Is it 1% of the cases? 25? 49%? There was no way to know that a month or two ago, without lots and lots and lots of data. Best guess then: Sure, it's possible. We don't want anymore spread than needed, so, don't touch your face, and wash your hands. THAT is still good advice. It was always good advice - even for the "regular old flu."
People - new facts and data will come to light - and guidance will change. Maybe daily. That's how it is. Stop being so flippin' stubborn, and accept that it's OK to learn new stuff, while at the same time taking advantage of that New Stuff to ease peoples' minds. They didn't tell you this (about the surface transmission) so you could mock them for not knowing sooner - nope - they told you so folks could quit having anxiety attacks when they forget to wipe down their box of cereal (freshly purchased) after they get home. It's almost certainly - almost - not necessary. The rate of transmission that way is very - very - low - apparently. Not zero. But not 49% either.
It's not fearmongering. It's just data. How you interpret it is entirely up to you. You interpret it as fear. Interesting.
So this is good news. It alleviates some of the panic...
Unfortunately dimwits are gonna jump to conclusions...
This is like anything else. It takes time and research to discover how it is transmitted, if immunity is long lasting, etc. It is the same reason we don't already have a vaccine. It isn't like Hollywood when they inject someone with some special sauce and they go from death rattle to dancing. The vaccine needs to not transfer immunity, it needs to be effective in a very high percentage of the population and have few or short term side effects while also having only a small portion of the population actually contract the virus itself from receiving the vaccine.
All of that stuff takes months, usually years, to figure out. The same way it takes a lot of research to understand how the virus is transmitted. It isn't like they can just look at the virus in a microscope and it is holding up a stopwatch that says "I only last 1 day, 17 hours, 3 minutes and 57 seconds on this surface before I die!"
The OP needs to look around at his or her world. The first cell phones weren't the first cell phones. They were probably the one thousandth iteration of a cell phone. Maybe the first 999 blew up when someone called. It wasn't until the 1000th one that someone figured it how to not kill the user. There isn't much that is gotten right on the very first attempt.
So...just what have the "experts" gotten right on this virus?
What part of "novel" is confusing you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by austinnerd
It doesn't necessarily "discredit" the experts, however it does logically lead many folks to then question just how solid the rationale behind any future guidance.
Just another indication of how badly our educational system has failed us - people do not understand the scientific method of identifying the problem, gathering relevant data, forming a hypothesis from the data, testing the hypothesis, and modifying the hypothesis after testing when warranted.
Hope I didn't leave out any steps. It's been awhile.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toyman at Jewel Lake
We based our national policy on the "expertise" of these people.
What part of "erring on the side of caution" did you miss? See scientific method explained above.
So basically we’ve allowed the government to shut us down, and now have convenient procedures put in place such as mask wearing and contact tracing over what’s basically a bad flu season?
So...just what have the "experts" gotten right on this virus?
-No human to human transmission
-No need for tests from foreign countries, our own industry or universities-the CDC has this (and banned all other tests). Only to screw the pooch hard and waste a month at the start of this pandemic
-If you touch anything another person has you're going to die.
-We NEED 500,000 ventilators
-2-5 million Americans will die
-Masks bayd
-We need to "lockdown" for a couple of weeks to "flatten the curve"
-You can't go outside without a mask on
-We need to "lockdown" for a few years until there is a vaccine
If it wasn't so serious, our "experts" would be a damn joke. Just what have they gotten right during this whole thing? These "experts" are responsible for 30 million Americans losing their jobs, hundreds of thousands of businesses destroyed, life's savings lost.
On his feet 5 days @ week 10 hrs day. Closed for two months because of Covid and the state governor's edict of closure. He has a state license so the state has him by the throat.
Now he has reopened but his customers have not returned. So he's out-of-business.
Well, I am of the firm belief that whatever risks the virus presents, the wide adoption of this mentality is far more dangerous.
I'll also say that if our Admin's lacking response cost any lives (I know, up for debate to some), the spreading and promoting of this mindset has cost a lot more.
Mindset: That the experts, the media, the scientists are all wrong. That the Right Wing Propaganda Machine (HQ'd on Pennsylvania Avenue) knows more than the experts.
He has done a huge disservice to our country by introducing doubt to ANYTHING that might go against his political agenda. Far more dangerous than the virus itself, and certainly far longer-lasting.
His legacy may well be the downfall of our country, based on his campaign of misinformation. It was well under-way, but he gave it a fast-pass and immunity. Not good.
How do you feel about Pelosi who was inviting people to Chinatown a month after the Trump travel ban? What will her legacy be?
CDC and WHO issue opinions. They have no idea what they're doing. Just "educated" guesses that many times are wrong. We need to find new people to run them or they should be disbanded. They spread more fear than accurate information.
Originally masks weren't necessary according to our experts, then they became mandatory.
Originally the virus was said to be easily spread on surfaces, now they say it isn't.
What a cluster of misinformation.
We need leaders who can take the diversity of opinions, the multiple variables and inpact, and put it together in a comprehensive strategy that is based on the best info at the time, yet flexible to change and evolve as we know more.
At the Federal level, we are led by a "shiny ball" strategy. Whatever you might think is (or is not) the right strategy, it's hard to ignore the daily reversals and changes of rhetoric, which happened at a much faster pace than any changes by the experts.
CDC may have room for improvement, but they are not the final say on policy. We need someone capable of taking all the info and making a better decision. The current admin has proven that they either can't, or won't do that.
The problem is, CDC and WHO are overtaking basic doctors who have years and years in research, and are being strangely censored.
Why on earth are doctors being censored for misinformation for a novel virus...when CDC and WHO have been wrong themselves on this novel virus? You'd think you want as many expert opinions as you can get. After all, that is what science is all about.
Science: "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment."
This is beyond ridiculous anymore. First, it was a "minuscule threat", and it was "don't go out and get masks", and the lock down was "just for 2 weeks so the hospitals aren't overwhelmed", which turned into "it's highly contagious and dangerous" and "wear a mask if you care about anyone" (ludicrous), and "we need to stay locked down longer" (in some places until fricken August), and a whole bunch of "Just you wait..." and "you're selfish" and "good citizen" and "comply", blah, blah, blah to:
"Oh, well, it's actually not spread by touching surfaces...oops, our bad."
And do not sit there and say "Oh we knew that" because if you've visited some of our fine threads on here, many people believed it, and they loved nothing more than to berate people on the basis of "touching things" while you were out in public and not wearing a mask. Apparently, choosing not to wear a mask meant that you were infecting every single thing you touched with Covid 19. The threads are there - feel free to read through them.
Err on the side of caution? Which side?
The overhyped nonsense that has been going on for months, in which some of us said, from the very beginning, that it was overhyped, with a media gleefully spewing out fear mongering to panic everyone, never once telling anyone the full story, just report "new cases" never ever talk about how many had mild symptoms, nor how fast they recovered, how many actually needed to go to the doctor for treatment, just spewed out numbers to scare the crap out of everyone?
OR
Err on the side of 30+ million people out of work, and small businesses that had been around for a few decades having to close their doors permanently - and their entire lives disrupted, their livelihood disrupted, neighborhoods disrupted. People unable to pay their rent, pay their electric, have enough for food - all disrupted.
Over reaching governments who let out dangerous inmates into society, while arresting people on paddle boards in the middle of the ocean by themselves, or people in parks with their family, not anywhere near anyone else (but go to an overflowing Costco, Wal Mart, Target, local grocery store? No problem!), "tracing" and statements that they "will" find you, isolate you, and watch you, all thrown at the populace.
All of that, when it was said, in the beginning, that it was a "minuscule threat", the WHO to this day has on their website that you don't need to wear a mask if you're healthy unless you're around a Covid19 patient, the numbers were skewed - the NYTimes even admitted that, a doctor/representative admitted that, other doctors and nurses were coming out and admitting that - only to be mocked, censored, or so called "discredited" - the sharp rise in suicide and domestic violence, the rise in drug use and child abuse.
That was all "worth it" to some people on here. Instead of what we should have done, and I said it from the start, as did many others: Protect those who are elderly, have compromised immune systems, have 2 + pre-existing conditions, especially if respiratory conditions (asthma, CF, etc), this country decided to go bat spit crazy and destroy millions of lives that didn't need to be touched at all.
The problem is, CDC and WHO are overtaking basic doctors who have years and years in research, and are being strangely censored.
Why on earth are doctors being censored for misinformation for a novel virus...when CDC and WHO have been wrong themselves on this novel virus? You'd think you want as many expert opinions as you can get. After all, that is what science is all about.
Science: "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment."
Being a Doctor does not automatically mean someone is an expert on Epidemics. That is one of the problems, I saw a study that showed "the opinion of 6000 doctors....". They may be more qualified than you or me, but not experts in epidemics.
As an analogy, it's like having a mechanic weigh in on the environmental effects of the internal combustion engine (whatever you think the effects are, or are not, being a mechanic is related, but not indicative of expertise).
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I know an old barber.
