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Old 07-16-2020, 08:56 AM
 
5,986 posts, read 2,240,225 times
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Oh please DeSantis has no interest in making Daddy Trump look bad intentionally. DeSantis does it by just being DeSantis, he has needed no help in that department.
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Old 07-16-2020, 08:57 AM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,303 times
Reputation: 2591
Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279 View Post
and let fate take over when I catch it.

Sort of. Except it's not about (just) you. It's about all the other people you affect. They don't want their fate in your hands and vice-versa.
Their fate is not in my hands. It's in their hands. Just because I don't take precautions doesn't mean they cannot take those precautions. At same time, if they're so scared of catching it, they cannot ask me to rearrange my life for their safety.
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Old 07-16-2020, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,916,734 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenPineTree View Post
Ok, then I will. If coronavirus is anywhere as widespread as they claim, it's not going away. And I'm done running away from it. I will live my life, and let fate take over when I catch it.
I mean I finally know someone in my actual circle that has it yesterday. Just because you don't see it, doesn't mean it isn't a problem.
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:35 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,123 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenPineTree View Post
You're a scientist? Really? In what?
Yep. P-chem. I also develop assays and automation platforms, which is why I knew this administration was full of horse pucky months ago with their ridiculous rhetoric in their briefings. I don't create viral tests, but I create tests and my level of testing does not increase a rate in any direction. The very idea of it is so stupid.

And for that matter, my spouse is a covid19 lab supervisor and they actually run these PCR tests. There are no increases in their positive rates and and their lab is now going 24hrs/day. What will increase our positive rates? Not wearing masks. Not being careful.
Quote:
Inverse correlation is not what I'm talking about. Inverse relation means if one variable increases the other decreases. We're not talking about that.
I know what it means. If you have a population where 3% has the virus and you increase testing the positives will go down as testing goes up. You want to know what's correlating with those positive tests? Spread.


Quote:
You don't know what it means.

No, my example of how increased testing can lead to increase positivity rates via contact tracing. Not doing so well for a supposed scientist, are ya?
There are thousands of cases everyday in Florida. Besides the fact that Florida health officials were failing to do the contact tracing, just think about it for a minute. Does it really makes sense to you that those positives are being identified via contact tracing? You are not doing well with common sense.


Quote:
this is gibberish.

If you were to test the female population at random, the more women you test, the more pregnancies you'd find, but you'd expect the rate to stay stable unless you weren't testing randomly or perhaps women were changing their procreation habits during the course of the testing. This is common sense. But for some reason a "literate scientist" is not keeping up.
Talk about gibberish. We're not talking about every variable under the sun. We are talking about Trump's claim. That we have an increase in positives because we have an increase in tests, not community spread. He's wrong and you're wrong.



You can test all day in an old folks home and you're not going to have an increase in pregnancies. And you can choose not to test pregnant women all day long and they're still going to be pregnant.

And as we can see in states that are not in the middle of surges, states that have higher testing rates than Florida per 1M pop, that has increased testing is not increasing the positives.
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:49 PM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,303 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax_G View Post
There are thousands of cases everyday in Florida. Besides the fact that Florida health officials were failing to do the contact tracing, just think about it for a minute. Does it really makes sense to you that those positives are being identified via contact tracing? You are not doing well with common sense.
Yes, of course it does. If one person tests +, and then you follow up by testing everyone they have been in contact with, you expect a lot more +s.

Quote:
Talk about gibberish. We're not talking about every variable under the sun. We are talking about Trump's claim. That we have an increase in positives because we have an increase in tests, not community spread. He's wrong and you're wrong.
Trump claimed you see a increase in + results from increased testing, that's 100% accurate.

Quote:
You can test all day in an old folks home and you're not going to have an increase in pregnancies. And you can choose not to test pregnant women all day long and they're still going to be pregnant.
Is this what passes for logic from a supposed scientist?

I guess you can test mangos for Covid-19 too!
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:11 PM
 
4,025 posts, read 1,880,794 times
Reputation: 8654
More testing leads to more actual people in the positive count - that is undeniable, unless ALL positives were already tested - highly unlikely. The question is - is the PERCENT of people testing positive going up - whatever the numbers are? And in many places...yep.


BOTH THINGS are simultaneously true. More testing equals more positives reported. A higher PERCENT of positives means the virus is spreading more - not less. Both things are true.


So if you're really - really - married to the "cases are UP because of more testing" theory - then you'll have to explain why the percent is ALSO up. >awaits chart.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:15 PM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,303 times
Reputation: 2591
Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279 View Post
More testing leads to more actual people in the positive count - that is undeniable, unless ALL positives were already tested - highly unlikely. The question is - is the PERCENT of people testing positive going up - whatever the numbers are? And in many places...yep.
And contact tracing (testing all people in contact with a + result) leads to a higher percent, not just increased count. That's part of the explanation in Florida. I know many restaurants, where one waiter tests + and they go in and test everyone and encounter 3-4 more + employees as well.

This is actually good as it allows the establishment to reopen.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:18 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,123 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenPineTree View Post
Yes, of course it does. If one person tests +, and then you follow up by testing everyone they have been in contact with, you expect a lot more +s.
They haven't been doing that and I don't think they even have the infrastructure to do that level contact tracing even if they were game.

Quote:
Trump claimed you see a increase in + results from increased testing, that's 100% accurate.
That's 100% idiotic. The mental gymnastics required to get on board the Trump train hurts my brain. So, Trump says cases are actually going down, but the increased testing makes it only look like they're going up. I don't know how you process this crapola.

With that said, maybe there just won't be anymore data and that will just button up the pandemic all together.
Quote:
Is this what passes for logic from a supposed scientist?

I guess you can test mangos for Covid-19 too!
Well, I'm certainly not a card carrying stable genius as you all on faux crew where you can just make it up as you go.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:21 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,123 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279 View Post
More testing leads to more actual people in the positive count - that is undeniable, unless ALL positives were already tested - highly unlikely. The question is - is the PERCENT of people testing positive going up - whatever the numbers are? And in many places...yep.


BOTH THINGS are simultaneously true. More testing equals more positives reported. A higher PERCENT of positives means the virus is spreading more - not less. Both things are true.


So if you're really - really - married to the "cases are UP because of more testing" theory - then you'll have to explain why the percent is ALSO up. >awaits chart.
That's the thing, if there is no spread, then the positives will go down with increased testing. The only way it's going up is with spread.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:24 PM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,303 times
Reputation: 2591
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax_G View Post
They haven't been doing that and I don't think they even have the infrastructure to do that level contact tracing even if they were game.
They're doing it, much of the increased number of tests are done by people to go back to work, or requiring a test because someone at their work tested +.

Quote:
That's 100% idiotic. The mental gymnastics required to get on board the Trump train hurts my brain. So, Trump says cases are actually going down, but the increased testing makes it only look like they're going up. I don't know how you process this crapola.
I don't care what Trump says, you're the one obsessed by it. Not me.

But even that statement is not idiotic. Though it doesn't explain the situation in Florida. I know you claim to be a scientist, but for a supposed scientist, you're incredibly limited, to use a PC word

Say 5% of the population is infected and you do 100 random tests, say you get 5 + test results.

Now in 2 months, say 2% of the population is infected, and you do 1000 random tests, you get 20 + test results.

Overall, cases went down, but + test results went up, due to increased testing.

It's also possible positivity can go up, even if overall cases go down, if you test smarter. Contact tracing is an example of smarter testing. Something that was not happening in April.
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