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Old 07-15-2020, 01:59 PM
 
34,279 posts, read 19,388,318 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dementia Joe B View Post
We are talking about where it first spread once it got to the United States, but you knew that and still decided to post what you did.

Actually no, the topic here is the Florida labs.
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Old 07-15-2020, 02:08 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,143 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dementia Joe B View Post
You are missing what you posted:



You said Massachusetts was the first state hit. It wasn't. I was correcting you. California and Washington were the first states hit and California implemented strong measures, yet they are having skyrocketing cases again. And now so is New York and Massachusetts. Why are cases skyrocketing in California, Massachusetts and New York again if their measures corrected everything? How many more people are New York and Massachusetts going to add to their already outrageous death totals?

#BLUELIVESMATTER
Washington was not a super-spreader state. MA was. And MA is why we know that our greatest vulnerability was from Europeans over China. I'm surprised that this is news to you.
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Old 07-15-2020, 02:45 PM
 
Location: Where BLUELIVESMATTER
1 posts, read 19,487 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax_G View Post
Washington was not a super-spreader state. MA was. And MA is why we know that our greatest vulnerability was from Europeans over China. I'm surprised that this is news to you.
It's probably news to you that Massachusetts has more deaths than Florida and Texas COMBINED and now the virus is spreading again in Massachusetts. What is the plan going forward?

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Old 07-15-2020, 03:14 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dementia Joe B View Post
It's probably news to you that Massachusetts has more deaths than Florida and Texas COMBINED and now the virus is spreading again in Massachusetts. What is the plan going forward?
I am not sure what you are after here. If we get another 200 thousand positive cases in this state like FLA has right now? OMG It would be horrific. Just take Florida's closed cases. They have 38, 740 cases that are closed (recovered or died). 4521 of those are deaths. You do the math.

The plan moving forward, IMO, should be to shut everything down; schools, pubs, indoor dining, etc shut down. Shut it down until the case load is in the single digits and close state boarders...if I had my way.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:16 PM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,783 times
Reputation: 2591
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax_G View Post
I am not sure what you are after here. If we get another 200 thousand positive cases in this state like FLA has right now? OMG It would be horrific. Just take Florida's closed cases. They have 38, 740 cases that are closed (recovered or died). 4521 of those are deaths. You do the math.

The plan moving forward, IMO, should be to shut everything down; schools, pubs, indoor dining, etc shut down. Shut it down until the case load is in the single digits and close state boarders...if I had my way.
People currently being infected are lot younger, the old death rate won't hold. This is completely fine, it's completely expected. You reopen, you will get a rise in cases. This explosion of cases is at least half due to testing going through the roof as well.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:28 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenPineTree View Post
People currently being infected are lot younger, the old death rate won't hold. This is completely fine, it's completely expected. You reopen, you will get a rise in cases. This explosion of cases is at least half due to testing going through the roof as well.
It's not really completely fine. I don't think our seniors re that expendable. And I also don't buy that increase testing has a linear correlation with positive tests. Do you think it's the same for any test, like pregnancy tests?


ETA- also, with the whole preexisting condition thing beyond age like obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol- we are a fat nation with a lot of conditions. Too many people fall under that umbrella.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:31 PM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,783 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax_G View Post
It's not really completely fine. I don't think our seniors re that expendable. And I also don't buy that increase testing has a linear correlation with positive tests. Do you think it's the same for any test, like pregnancy tests?
In this case, it's not even linear, since they're doing extensive contact tracing now. If one bartender tests +, they will test the whole establishment even though none of them will be showing symptoms. That simply wasn't happening several months ago.

We're fine. Some people will die, but we all die anyways. We can no longer shut down our economies. For those who are so fearful, they will need to take the steps necessary to ensure their safety.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:34 PM
 
18,469 posts, read 8,298,361 times
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actually for Florida.....the more people tested....the percentage positive went down

...the less people tested the percent positive went up

but that's because the Florida Dept of Health is including lab results from labs that test for hosp admissions...in with random sample tests
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:39 PM
 
407 posts, read 123,143 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenPineTree View Post
In this case, it's not even linear, since they're doing extensive contact tracing now. If one bartender tests +, they will test the whole establishment even though none of them will be showing symptoms. That simply wasn't happening several months ago.
Then that would show an inverse correlation, which is not what Trump proposed. And I think that an inverse correlation makes sense and that highlights why these positive cases should warrant concern.


Quote:
We're fine. Some people will die, but we all die anyways. We can no longer shut down our economies. For those who are so fearful, they will need to take the steps necessary to ensure their safety.
If you and yours die and you're all ok with it, there's not much I can say. As long as it's not my people. That's where I am coming from. I mean, maybe ya'll should take Invanka's advice and find something new. Plenty of people are making bank on this pandemic.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:40 PM
 
6,829 posts, read 2,119,783 times
Reputation: 2591
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jax_G View Post
If you and yours die and you're all ok with it, there's not much I can say. As long as it's not my people. That's where I am coming from. I mean, maybe ya'll should take Invanka's advice and find something new. Plenty of people are making bank on this pandemic.
If you're not fine, then you take the steps necessary to feel safe. You can't hold us hostage anymore, sorry. We're going to live our lives, go to parties, go to crowded places, and all without masks.

Quote:
Then that would show an inverse correlation, which is not what Trump proposed. And I think that an inverse correlation makes sense and that highlights why these positive cases should warrant concern.
What you said doesn't make sense, nor addresses what I wrote. Don't use fancy words like "inverse correlation" to hide when you don't understand something.

If testing were random, truly random, we would expect it to rise proportionally (linearly) with increased testing. If 5% of the people were infected, and your sample pool was truly random and 100, you'd expect to find 5 + results. Now if you test 200, you expect to get 10+ results.

But testing is not truly random. There are a lot of factors going on, but one is we have extensive contact tracing. We expect the more tests done to people surrounding + people to have a higher % of + results than if those tests were done randomly.

So for example, if you randomly test 100 people, and discover 5 results, and then you find 50 people those 5 were in close contact with, and test those 50 people, you wouldn't expect to 2-3 infected people (5%), but something a lot more. So your positivity rate went up, but not from community spread, but from smarter testing employing contact tracing.

Either way, I'm not concerned, I live in Miami Beach, and to me everything is fine. The apocalypse you're reading about doesn't exist.

Last edited by GoldenPineTree; 07-15-2020 at 03:57 PM..
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