NFL 2023 Week 1 (ticket, star, game, helmets)

[Labonte18]

I just found this interesting.. Not trying to influence anyone's picks or anything.. but FPI stats.. The three most probable game outcomes..



#1 - Baltimore over the Texans - 73.5%



#3 - Washington over the Cardinals - 63.8%


#2 was kinda shocking to me.


Minnesota over Tampa Bay - 67.1%

[Hermit12]

Originally Posted by Labonte18

Yes.. But.. Detroit fans need to dial it back a bit as well.

I hear much more from them that they're going to the Super Bowl.. They might displace Dallas as the most deluded fanbase.

Why dial it back? Besides the Eagles, it's not like the NFC is loaded with powerhouses.

It's entertainment, may as well have fun with it and dream big. Every time I bet, I think I'm going to win - and sometimes I do!

[BobTex]

I'm for sure a deluded Cowboy fan although I never, ever mention SB for my team. Ever!


BTW, the Texans, Cardinals, and TB Bucs are all in turmoil at getting things right as NFL teams ... especially Arizona. They are pretty much a clown show.

[ditchlights]

Sorry, a little late here, but I had the Chiefs picked already, so it's a loss anyway.

Lions @ Chiefs

Panthers @ Falcons
Texans @ Ravens
Bengals @ Browns
Jaguars @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Vikings
Titans @ Saints
49ers @ Steelers
Cardinals @ Commanders

Packers @ Bears
Raiders @ Broncos
Dolphins @ Chargers
Eagles @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks

Cowboys @ Giants

Bills @ Jets

[Hermit12]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Here we go, Week 1. I put in page breaks between days of play and/or early, afternoon, or night games.

Right now, my "picks" simply reflect what Draft Kings is reporting.


Lions @ Chiefs

Panthers @ Falcons
Texans @ Ravens
Bengals @ Browns
Jaguars @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Vikings
Titans @ Saints
49ers @ Steelers
Cardinals @ Commanders

Packers @ Bears
Raiders @ Broncos
Dolphins @ Chargers
Eagles @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks

Cowboys @ Giants

Bills @ Jets

I'm 0-1 after picking the Chiefs. Stupid, Hermit! Stupid!

Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Jaguars
Vikings
Titans
49ers
Washington

Bears
Raiders
Chargers
Eagles
Seahawks

Cowboys

Bills

I put $40 on the Jaguars, Vikings and Eagles to win outright to try to net $89.55. Good luck, everybody!

[7express]

Originally Posted by Labonte18

Well.. That's impressive.


Either that or your math skills are very unimpressive.

LOL what a stupid math error, that should've read 8-9

And yes my math skills are very unimpressive anyways.

[everwinter]

More better helmet picks

Lions @Chiefs

Panthers @Falcons: have to go with the F shaped Falcon

Texans @Ravens: I like the black but the look on the Raven looks weird. I’ll go with the 1 eye lone stars.
Bengals@ Browns:
Jaguars@ Colts
Buccaneers @Vikings: Actual Vikings never had horns on their helmets. Vikes helmet looks better than the pirate flag, but it’s close.

Titans @Saints: The comet/shield/sun is weird. I’ll go with the lily flower.
49ers@ Steelers: 49ers - a city known for artists, culture & this is the best they can do? I’ll go with the ingredients used in the steel making process: yellow for coal, orange for iron ore, and blue for scrap steel

Cardinals @Commanders: I think I’m one of the few who actually likes the Commanders logo/helmet & jersey

Packers @Bears: Two terribly boring helmets, but at least at one time the G was shaped like a football to add some character.

Raiders @Broncos: I still can’t get over the stripe that goes from 3 stripes to 1 point on the Broncos helmet. I’ll go with the helmet modeled after Randolph Scott

Dolphins @Chargers: 2 of the best helmets. Tough choice, but I like the Dolphins helmet a little better.
Eagles@ Patriots: Another tough choice, but midnight green gives the edge.
Rams @Seahawks: These 2 played in week 18 last year & I couldn’t decide so let my wife pick. She picked Seahawks last year & Rams this time

[7express]

Originally Posted by 7express

Last season: N/A.

Lions @ Chiefs. Never a good idea to pick against the reining champs at home week 1, or the Chiefs in general at Arrowhead in the Mahomes/Kelce/Reid era. However with Kelce out that's a big weapon down for Mahomes, Chiefs usually struggle the first month of the season before getting it's legs, and people are expecting big things from the Lions after a strong end to the season last year. I have the Chiefs once again finishing first in the West at 13-4, but losing to the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. I'm not as bullish on the Lions as most experts think. I have the Lions finishing 3rd in the North at 7-8, missing the playoffs completely. I'll get the rest of the week 1, and the rest of my season predictions later in the week.

Welcome to my third annual week 1 prediction with season predictions post where I will post all records and predicted finishes for all 32 teams (Lions & Chiefs predictions above) with a TL;DR at the bottom at the end. Note; it's way to late and I've done an 8 hour shift at work so I'm not counting to see if all my wind equal out to 256 or whatever the number is now with the extra game. That's something I don't really care about.

Lions @ Chiefs. Picked above.
Panthers @ Falcons. Will either of these teams win the NFC South?? Probably not, but they can both be in the mix at seasons end. Panthers 2nd in the division at 9-8; Falcons 3rd in the division at 6-11.
Texans @ Ravens. After two straight bad Decembers with Jackson out injured, the Ravens will want to get out to a strong start. Texans 3rd in the AFC South at 5-12; Ravens win the AFC North at 12-5 as the 3 seed; and beat the Niners in the Super Bowl.
Bengals @ Browns. Super Joe is a surprising 1-4 in his career against the Browns. Both of these teams will be the Wildcard race, but I think only one of them makes the playoffs. Bengals tie the Ravens at 12-5 but lose the tiebreaker to the Ravens and finish 2nd; they lose to the Dolphins in the 4/5 game in the AFC Wildcard game. Browns finish in 3rd at 9-8.
Jaguars @ Colts. The Jags should feast on this terrible division; Jags finish 13-4 and the 2nd seed in the AFC (tiebreak loss to the Chiefs) and lose to the Bills in the Wildcard round. Colts 4th at 5-12, lose tiebreaker to the Texans to finish 4th.
Bucs @ Vikings. Which Kirk Cousins shows up for this one?? Bucs 4th in the south at 4-13; Vikings win the NFC North at 11-6, 3rd seed in the playoffs, and lose to Dallas in the divisional round.
Titans @ Saints. Any team with Derrick Henry still has a chance, but where is the rest of the offense going to come from?? Titans 2nd in the AFC South at 8-9; Saints "win" the NFC South at 9-8 but lose to Philadelphia in the Wildcard round in the 4/5 game.
Niners @ Steelers. I always hate taking the West coast team in the 1 PM time slot, but that fatigue factor shouldn't matter in week 1. Niners win the NFC West at 14-3, make the Super Bowl but lose to the Ravens; Steelers have their first sub .500 season under Tomlin, finish 4th in the divisional at 7-10.
Cardinals @ Commanders. Cardinals are probably the worst team in the league this year. Cardinals last in the West at 3-14; Commanders 3rd in the East at 9-8, winning tiebreakers to clinch the 7th seed in the NFC but losing to Dallas in the NFC Wildcard round
Packers @ Bears. The Jordan Love era commences in Chicago against a Bears team that I think can surprise. Packers finish 4th in the division at 6-11; Bears finish 2nd in the division at 10-7, finish as the 6 seed but lose to the Vikings in the Wildcard round
Raiders @ Broncos. What week does Mark Davis get tired of Jimmy G and give a call to Tom Brady asking him to write his own number to go back under center?? I'll set the over/under on week 7 and pick the over. Raiders 4th in the division at 6-11; Broncos 3rd in the division at 10-7.
Dolphins @ Chargers. Good game in the late afternoon window. Dolphins win the East at 11-6, beat the Bengals in the Wildcard round but lose to the Ravens in the divisional round. Chargers second in the division at 12-5, 6 seed in the AFC, and lose to the Ravens in the Wildcard round.
eagles @ Patriots. Are the Pats honoring Brady?? Eagles second in the NFC East at 11-6, lose to the Niners in the divisional round, Patriots 4th in the AFC east at 6-11
Rams @ Seahawks. Rams rebound won't be starting the first month with Kupp on IR. Can Geno Smith have another renaissance season?? Rams 3rd at 6-11; Seahawks second at 9-8
Cowboys @ Giants. Are we sure Dallas should be nearly a touchdown favorite on the road?? Anyways, since the NFC East never has a repeat division winner I have Dallas taking the division this year at 12-5, 2nd seed in the NFC losing to the Niners in the NFC Championship game; Jones has a mediocre season and they don't get the bounces and breaks they got last year and finish a distant 4th at 6-11.
Bills @ Jets. For all the Jets fans excited about Rogers: remember the last time the Jets got a Packers QB legend?? It started off hot, and than went off the rails about halfway through the season. I could see the same happening here. Jets need to upgrade their o-line to keep Rogers upright for the whole season. Bills tie the Dolphins at 11-6, but lose the tiebreaker to the Dolphins and lose to the Chiefs in the divisional round; Jets finish 3rd at 8-9.

For all the TL;DR folks:
NFC West:
1) Niners (14-3)
2) Seattle (9-8)
3) Rams (6-11)
4) Cardinals (3-14)

South:
1) Saints (9-8)
2) Panthers (9-8); Saints win the tiebreaker
3) Falcons (6-11)
4) Bucs (4-13)

East:
1) Dallas (12-5)
2) Philly (11-6)
3) Commanders (9-8)
4) Giants (6-11)

North:
1) Vikings (11-6)
2) Bears (10-7)
3) Lions (8-9)
4) Packers (6-11).

Playoff rankings:
1) Niners
2) Dallas
3) Minnesota
4) Saints
5) Philly
6) Bears
7) Commanders; win the tiebreak over both the Panthers & Seahawks.

Wildcard round:
Dallas over Washington
Minnesota over Chicago
Philly over the Saints

Divisional round:
Niners over Philly
Dallas over Minnesota

NFC Championship game:
Niners over Dallas 26-16

AFC North:
1) Ravens (12-5)
2) Bengals (12-5); Ravens win the tiebreaker
3) Browns (9-8)
4) Steelers (7-10).

East:
1) Dolphins (11-6)
2) Bills (11-6); Dolphins win tiebreaker
3) Jets (8-9)
4) Patriots (6-11)

West:
1) Chiefs (13-4)
2) Chargers (12-5)
3) Broncos (10-7)
4 Raiders (6-11)

South:
1) Jaguars (13-4)
2) Titans (9-8)
3) Texans (5-12)
4) Colts (5-12); Texans win tiebreaker for 3rd.

Playoff rankings:
1) Chiefs
2) Jaguars; Chiefs win tiebreaker
3) Ravens
4) Dolphins
5) Bengals
6) Chargers; Bengals win tiebreaker
7) Bills

Wildcard round:
Bills over Jaguars
Ravens over Chargers
Dolphins over Bengals

Divisional round:
Chiefs over Bills
Ravens over Dolphins

AFC Championship game:
Ravens over Chiefs 33-31

Super Bowl:
Ravens over Niners 27-21

[Labonte18]

Wow.. 7express.. Your rankings really match up with what I'm thinking. Very few things that i'll flat out argue. Save for the NFC Norris. No. Just No on that, other than Minnesota taking the division, though I think maybe Detroit could take it.


Somehow, someway the Steelers finish over .500. Tomlin magic.

I think you have the Raiders a little low, but.. Then again. I won't argue that hard. You have them where I see their floor.

I think you have the Panthers way too high.

but, those are the only things that.. I flat out disagree with. I'd have the Bills taking the AFC east and the Bengals taking the North.. But.. Your picks there are plausible.


You need a nastier ending for Dallas though.. so.. Let's say that NFC Championship loss happens in a very heartbreaking way Tied 14-14 with 3 seconds to play and SF nails a 70 yard hail mary.. That'll work.. Or they lose to Washington in the first round.

[Mike from back east]

It's halftime for the early games and here in the Phoenix area we get to see two games.

1. Arizona at Washington. Played in a light rain, late in 2nd Qtr the Washington QB fumbled the ball while being chased and an Arizona player grabbed the ball and dove over the line for a TD. I'm sure that play will be in all the highlight reels, it was a textbook strip, fumble, recovery, TD. At the Half it's AZ-13 and Washington 10. First game for Washington under new ownership, fans were pumped but I saw a lot of empty seats in the upper seating areas; was it the rain? It used to be every game was sold out and season tickets had a 15-20 year wait. This link should have a video of the TD: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ll-go-ahead-td


2. Cincinnati at Cleveland. Played in light rain, this game was a battle of punts, 11 in the first half; 7 by Cincinnati and 4 by Cleveland. Cleveland scored a TD late in the 2nd quarter for a 10-0 lead at the half. Lots of empty seats in the upper seating areas; is it the weather or something else.


Okay, time for my 2nd cup of coffee for the 2nd half.