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m378 - to springboard off the question you are asking (I think) and may shed some "light" on what you're asking.
A little bit of a Forward
Back when I jumped into this thread, I said something to the effect of there were signs pointing to COVID19 being in the wild for a month or two in China before China actually confirmed it to the WHO (China confirmed it on 12/31/2019 which is for all intents and purposes "the start date"). There were reports leaking out of China how the doctors had gone to the government in November ringing alarms and were stifled. I think I said at the time here, "China was playing their own super bug version of Chernobyl".
Anyway, if that is true (that the disease was in the wild for 1-2 months before we currently "know it was") and given the rates of transmission we are currently seeing now, it is almost a certainty that it was spreading just as fast in November as it is now, we simply didn't know it because China hadn't "admitted" the new bug to the world until the 31st of December.
In that vein, here is some data from WA State on this.
Basically the "theory" is something like this. There was a spike in "influenza and respiratory" illnesses in WA State (and maybe others) in November/December; but because no one had the test to test for COVID19 nor were they on the lookout for it, the cases at the time were referred to as influenza or some form of respiratory illness. These spikes can be seen on the WA state health site below. If this theory is accurate, then the point is COVID19 has been in the US for a much longer period of time than we currently "know" because it was in the wild prior to what we currently "know" as the start date. It isn't like a virus would wait for Humans to ID it and the News to pick up on it to start its spread. Nature doesn't work within human experience boxes.
I have attached a pic of a graph as well, that compares it to previous seasons; and again, the spike this year is obvious. I don't make this post to argue people should stand down and let their guards up. Quite the opposite. We should remain vigilant within common sense reason. But it is interesting to see that there was a spike this year compared to others when you marry that up with what we know now. Again I'm not trying to spread conspiracy theories or make it sound like I am a medical expert or infectious disease expert. I am a analytical data person and find the data on this stuff fascinating.
m378 - to springboard off the question you are asking (I think) and may shed some "light" on what you're asking.
A little bit of a Forward
Back when I jumped into this thread, I said something to the effect of there were signs pointing to COVID19 being in the wild for a month or two in China before China actually confirmed it to the WHO (China confirmed it on 12/31/2019 which is for all intents and purposes "the start date"). There were reports leaking out of China how the doctors had gone to the government in November ringing alarms and were stifled. I think I said at the time here, "China was playing their own super bug version of Chernobyl".
Anyway, if that is true (that the disease was in the wild for 1-2 months before we currently "know it was") and given the rates of transmission we are currently seeing now, it is almost a certainty that it was spreading just as fast in November as it is now, we simply didn't know it because China hadn't "admitted" the new bug to the world until the 31st of December.
In that vein, here is some data from WA State on this.
Basically the "theory" is something like this. There was a spike in "influenza and respiratory" illnesses in WA State (and maybe others) in November/December; but because no one had the test to test for COVID19 nor were they on the lookout for it, the cases at the time were referred to as influenza or some form of respiratory illness. These spikes can be seen on the WA state health site below. If this theory is accurate, then the point is COVID19 has been in the US for a much longer period of time than we currently "know" because it was in the wild prior to what we currently "know" as the start date. It isn't like a virus would wait for Humans to ID it and the News to pick up on it to start its spread. Nature doesn't work within human experience boxes.
I have attached a pic of a graph as well, that compares it to previous seasons; and again, the spike this year is obvious. I don't make this post to argue people should stand down and let their guards up. Quite the opposite. We should remain vigilant within common sense reason.
Thanks that's helpful. Really what I'm interested in though is deaths - do you know by how much the death rate increased in WA in November/December? At the end of the day it's deaths and permanent affects that we need to be most concerned about. If people are just getting sick, then maybe we need to tread a little more carefully about sacrificing the world economy.
At the end of the day it's deaths and permanent affects that we need to be most concerned about. If people are just getting sick, then maybe we need to tread a little more carefully about sacrificing the world economy.
It's more than that. It's hospitals being overwhelmed by people with severe pneumonia, which is what this causes. Obviously, people are still getting sick and injured and dying from other things while coronavirus is going around. What are we going to do with all those people if all the hospital beds are already occupied by people on ventilators?
Thanks that's helpful. Really what I'm interested in though is deaths - do you know by how much the death rate increased in WA in November/December? At the end of the day it's deaths and permanent affects that we need to be most concerned about. If people are just getting sick, then maybe we need to tread a little more carefully about sacrificing the world economy.
Unfortunately their site seems to key off where you are in time (now March). Ill dig in and see if they archive monthly reports as opposed to the seasonal year reports.
It's more than that. It's hospitals being overwhelmed by people with severe pneumonia, which is what this causes. Obviously, people are still getting sick and injured and dying from other things while coronavirus is going around. What are we going to do with all those people if all the hospital beds are already occupied by people on ventilators?
It can cause pneumonia mostly in older people and people with compromised immune systems. These people are susceptible to pneumonia from any lower respiratory infection. Many people now are going to doctors and hospitals due to minor sickness, that normally would not. The hospitals can't just turn away people that are showing any symptoms of respiratory infection, and the testing isn't immediate.
At the end of the day since we've started social distancing (which I'm not saying is necessarily the wrong decision), we will never know what the actual impact of this virus is to every day normal life. I understand the need and abundance of caution, I'm just equally as worried about the economic impacts. People die from economic impacts as well. We are in for a world of hurt economically.
I don't disagree there. We're in uncharted waters right now. If anything, this is revealing how precarious our way of life has been in recent years if it can't handle the occasional global pandemic.
It can cause pneumonia mostly in older people and people with compromised immune systems. These people are susceptible to pneumonia from any lower respiratory infection. Many people now are going to doctors and hospitals due to minor sickness, that normally would not. The hospitals can't just turn away people that are showing any symptoms of respiratory infection, and the testing isn't immediate.
At the end of the day since we've started social distancing (which I'm not saying is necessarily the wrong decision), we will never know what the actual impact of this virus is to every day normal life. I understand the need and abundance of caution, I'm just equally as worried about the economic impacts. People die from economic impacts as well. We are in for a world of hurt economically.
I think both of the following conditions can be true.
1. We may never know the true human impact of this disease. Yes we will ultimately know confirmed numbers of infected via a test. Yes we will ultimately know the number of deaths. But the measures various countries are taking (social distancing, quarantines, closing businesses, stores, cultural sites etc never mind what China did and Israel is doing) should in theory impact the spread of it. If the spread of it is brought to heel even a little bit by these actions and ultimately the spread slows, there will be that "aha, see it wasn't that bad!" reaction by many people. Unfortunately that doesn't really tell the story because you are comparing that "slower spread and impact" to an unknown, which is "what would have happened if we did none of that". This is the Catch-22 to it all. People will react to the outcome and ignore the steps taken to reach it.
2. The economic side is really a combination of things. Regardless of the how well the Stock Market has been doing, that isn't the economy. There is much more to it and there have been troubling signs for well over a year that many people simply have been whistling past the graveyard on. My 401K doing well isn't the be all end all. That situation, plus COVID19 adds a layer of human uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. Then layer in the Oil Price war going on. Its a triple whammy that is probably too much to ask any "market" to take on at once. Even Newt Gingerich wrote an op-ed yesterday in Newsweek from Italy saying basically .....this is bad friends, its going to get worse and we should approach the world economy coming out of this as we did in WW2 when the US had to basically rebuild Europe's economy....
I think the new start date is now November 17th, but still no confirmation on patient zero.
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