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I've been trying to give myself a little perspective here. According to this article, the line will cost $1.6B to $2.1B and is expected to carry 7500 to 10000 passengers per day ($160k to $280k per passenger). It would open in 2030. The Triangle Expressway cost about $1B and carries about 50k cars per day, so perhaps 100k people per day. I don't have any information about operational costs, but I would assume the net operational cost on the rail would be a lot higher. If we had a road project that would cost $2B and only carry 10k people per day, I doubt it would get built.
I just don't see the point given how decentralized the region is. The article references this:
"The Triangle’s commuter rail plan is different from traditional commuter rail in places like Long Island, New York and the San Francisco Bay Area.
“In most places, commuter rail systems are built to bring people from the suburbs to job centers downtown. But as we all know, the Triangle is a unique place in many ways,” GoTriangle spokeswoman Burgetta Wheeler said during a recent online presentation about the project.
A transit analysis found that as many as 96,000 Triangle commuters live in Wake and work in Durham or vice versa, so travel doesn’t just go in one direction in the mornings and back in the evenings."
Another question is, what about at grade crossings? This would be an additional 20 trains a day, travelling at high speed. The frequent crossings are going to cause a lot of traffic problems and safety hazards.
I've been trying to give myself a little perspective here. According to this article, the line will cost $1.6B to $2.1B and is expected to carry 7500 to 10000 passengers per day ($160k to $280k per passenger). It would open in 2030. The Triangle Expressway cost about $1B and carries about 50k cars per day, so perhaps 100k people per day. I don't have any information about operational costs, but I would assume the net operational cost on the rail would be a lot higher. If we had a road project that would cost $2B and only carry 10k people per day, I doubt it would get built.
I just don't see the point given how decentralized the region is. The article references this:
"The Triangle’s commuter rail plan is different from traditional commuter rail in places like Long Island, New York and the San Francisco Bay Area.
“In most places, commuter rail systems are built to bring people from the suburbs to job centers downtown. But as we all know, the Triangle is a unique place in many ways,” GoTriangle spokeswoman Burgetta Wheeler said during a recent online presentation about the project.
A transit analysis found that as many as 96,000 Triangle commuters live in Wake and work in Durham or vice versa, so travel doesn’t just go in one direction in the mornings and back in the evenings."
Another question is, what about at grade crossings? This would be an additional 20 trains a day, travelling at high speed. The frequent crossings are going to cause a lot of traffic problems and safety hazards.
I sorta hinted at this in my reply a few pages back, but that is the key to all of this (IMHO).
I shared the MBTA Commuter Rail in MA. It works (in so much that there is demand/utilization of it, I'll ignore that the MBTA runs in the RED every year because of their goofy pension system) because:
1. The burbs the Boston/Providence area are saturated out much further than they are here and
2. Due to the cost of housing, there are tons of people who live 20,30,40,50 miles from the city, yet work there (at least in the Pre-COVID times).
3. Boston is a weekend destination; bars, restaurants, sporting events etc for the "out in the sub/exurbs crowd" (this isn't to imply Raleigh isn't. But again, most people will barely drive 20-30 mins for things here, let alone 50 mins on a weekend with no traffic to catch a game and some cold pops.)
#1 doesn't apply to this Metro area, yet. Yes, there is sprawl here. But it's largely confined to what I would, in MA, refer to the "inner ring of suburbs" (in Boston, this would be the towns around the 128/95/93 loop). Here "civilization" stretches in a ring to basically WF, Knightdale, Clayton, FV, HS, Apex, Cary for the most part (obviously Cary then stretches toward Durham and CH).
Outside of the ring here, there is largely nothing. Rural, unincorporated towns dot the map.
As for #2, it certainly doesn't seem to be the case here, Pre-COVID and less so now. The last job I had in MA, which I commuted to Boston for, I drove 41 miles one way. People commuting from Worcester to Boston are driving 48 miles. Plymouth to Boston is 41 miles. Nashua to Boston is 50 miles. Newburyport is 43 miles. Point being, the commuter rail there draws demand from a "PacMan shaped circle" that extends 40-50 miles around the city. I assume the commuter rail around NYC is similar (drawing from Westchester Co/Dutchess Co, SW CT, and LI). That's what? Mebane to the West, Kittrell/Henderson to the North, Wilson to the East and Dunn to the South?
I don't think (but could be dead wrong) Raleigh draws in, even Pre-COVID, workers from that large an area, largely because this place A, isn't developed entirely that far, and B, is still relatively affordable enough for people to not that live that far from downtown.
In it's current form, I don't think Raleigh has the juice to justify the squeeze. Traffic may be bad for people who have been here forever, but even rush hour here barely registers on the "holy F that's some traffic" scale. Someday it may, but if you spend the money now and it fails, it will become just another toxic talking point.
I sorta hinted at this in my reply a few pages back, but that is the key to all of this (IMHO).
I shared the MBTA Commuter Rail in MA. It works (in so much that there is demand/utilization of it, I'll ignore that the MBTA runs in the RED every year because of their goofy pension system) because:
1. The burbs the Boston/Providence area are saturated out much further than they are here and
2. Due to the cost of housing, there are tons of people who live 20,30,40,50 miles from the city, yet work there (at least in the Pre-COVID times).
3. Boston is a weekend destination; bars, restaurants, sporting events etc for the "out in the sub/exurbs crowd" (this isn't to imply Raleigh isn't. But again, most people will barely drive 20-30 mins for things here, let alone 50 mins on a weekend with no traffic to catch a game and some cold pops.)
#1 doesn't apply to this Metro area, yet. Yes, there is sprawl here. But it's largely confined to what I would, in MA, refer to the "inner ring of suburbs" (in Boston, this would be the towns around the 128/95/93 loop). Here "civilization" stretches in a ring to basically WF, Knightdale, Clayton, FV, HS, Apex, Cary for the most part (obviously Cary then stretches toward Durham and CH).
Outside of the ring here, there is largely nothing. Rural, unincorporated towns dot the map.
As for #2, it certainly doesn't seem to be the case here, Pre-COVID and less so now. The last job I had in MA, which I commuted to Boston for, I drove 41 miles one way. People commuting from Worcester to Boston are driving 48 miles. Plymouth to Boston is 41 miles. Nashua to Boston is 50 miles. Newburyport is 43 miles. Point being, the commuter rail there draws demand from a "PacMan shaped circle" that extends 40-50 miles around the city. I assume the commuter rail around NYC is similar (drawing from Westchester Co/Dutchess Co, SW CT, and LI). That's what? Mebane to the West, Kittrell/Henderson to the North, Wilson to the East and Dunn to the South?
I don't think (but could be dead wrong) Raleigh draws in, even Pre-COVID, workers from that large an area, largely because this place A, isn't developed entirely that far, and B, is still relatively affordable enough for people to not that live that far from downtown.
In it's current form, I don't think Raleigh has the juice to justify the squeeze. Traffic may be bad for people who have been here forever, but even rush hour here barely registers on the "holy F that's some traffic" scale. Someday it may, but if you spend the money now and it fails, it will become just another toxic talking point.
Very good points. While we think of places like Cary and Clayton as suburbs of Raleigh and I'm sure a lot of people who live there work in Raleigh, they work all over Raleigh, not downtown or other concentrated areas. So there's really no benefit to driving to Clayton central station to take a train to downtown Raleigh, and then take a bus halfway across town. Add to that the acceleration of telecommuting, but also major employers realizing that if all our employees live in Cary or Clayton, why don't we put our office there. All that to say, by 2030, I think housing and employment will be less centralized than they are today.
As a taxpayer, I'd rather see that $2B invested in roads, EVs, autonomous vehicles, or public transit somewhere else where it will achieve better ROI. Maybe we should spend it on improving long distance rail. It's pretty ridiculous that it takes over 6 hours to get to Washington. Even with traffic, you can drive faster. A similar distance journey from London to Paris can be done in a little over 2 hours.
If the feasibility study commissioned by Go-Triangle comes back with a positive recommendation, then it’s a slam dunk. The study is due in March, 2022 according to today’s TBJ. This commuter rail proposal is much more realistic, cheaper to build and faster to build than the previous Light Rail boondoggle, as it ties the entire region together from the start. For once, the cart has not been put in front of the horse.
In the scheme of things, $ 2.1 billion is not a lot of money. Politicians love to spend money and this is clearly a high profile trophy project.
Another question is, what about at grade crossings? This would be an additional 20 trains a day, travelling at high speed. The frequent crossings are going to cause a lot of traffic problems and safety hazards.
At-grade crossing will slowly be eliminated over time depending on NCDOT's budget. The Blue Ridge Rd/Hillsborough Street crossings should be eliminated soon when that project starts. Cary is expected to announced their preferred realignment plans for their section of the rail and it should be separated as well. Raleigh will start closing some of the downtown crossing once they have a budget to add new crossings.
At-grade crossing will slowly be eliminated over time depending on NCDOT's budget. The Blue Ridge Rd/Hillsborough Street crossings should be eliminated soon when that project starts. Cary is expected to announced their preferred realignment plans for their section of the rail and it should be separated as well. Raleigh will start closing some of the downtown crossing once they have a budget to add new crossings.
I guess they have at least 10 years to get it done, but it really is a must.
If the feasibility study commissioned by Go-Triangle comes back with a positive recommendation, then it’s a slam dunk. The study is due in March, 2022 according to today’s TBJ. This commuter rail proposal is much more realistic, cheaper to build and faster to build than the previous Light Rail boondoggle, as it ties the entire region together from the start. For once, the cart has not been put in front of the horse.
In the scheme of things, $ 2.1 billion is not a lot of money. Politicians love to spend money and this is clearly a high profile trophy project.
It sounded like a slam dunk when the plan was to use existing rail, but my understanding is the RR won't agree to sharing rail. Are they able to build new track in the existing corridors?
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