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Well you might be right of course and it is a good prediction using today's tech I think.
Now if we take one of Ray Kurzweils predictions:
2030s: Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals.
If this comes true (I bet it will, I just won't bet on the exact year), this would actually remove all the medical work to make someone see through a camera.
That is why the 2030's is called the nano tech revolution or life 3.0. On some level it will start in the mid to late 2020's but not till the 2030's will it be common.
Which is an ill-defined notion because of the notion of "advancing exponentially" depending on your parameter choice.
I have been giving this some thought and I think you get caught up in the details of specific technologies while not looking at the bigger picture. To coin a phrase "you can't the the forest through the trees". Now sure you can possibly get technical and site specific technologies that have not advanced exponentially but if you stand back and look at the bigger picture overall computers have.
In the 1970's we had main frame computers that took up entire rooms.
In the 1980's we had desk top computers that had more processing capability then the main frame computers of the 1970's.
In the 1990's we had lap top computers that had more processing capability then the desk top computers of the 1980's.
Around 2005 we had smart phones that had more processing capability then the lap top computers in the 1990's.
Today we have wearable computers that are more powerful then the computers in 2005.
The impact to society by each of these paradigm shifts has been fantastic and at each stage there was a group of people who said yes this happened but this is where it will stop and they had their reasons and every time they were wrong. No different then what is happening today. You have a group of people that say yes we have come this far but it will end now and why. Then, as people who said it would stop before them, they will be wrong and in the 2020's we will go from wearable tech to merging with the tech and it will just get even smaller faster and more common in the 2030's. That will be the so called tipping point as we will really start to advance fast and it will impact things like longevity and that is why I call the 2020's the pre-singularity.
Cellular Toggle Switch Could Herald An Anti-Aging Breakthrough
Another breakthrough that will help have reverse aging.
Researchers at the Salk Institute have discovered a toggle switch for aging cells. By controlling the growth of telomeres, it may eventually be possible to coax healthy cells to keep dividing and generating even in old age.
The cells in our bodies are constantly dividing, replenishing our lungs, skin, liver, and other organs. Regrettably, most human cells can't keep on dividing forever. Each time a cell divides, a cellular "timekeeper" at the ends of the chromosomes shortens. These timekeepers, called telomeres, are like the aglets at the end of your shoelaces — those important bits of plastic that prevent the lace ends from fraying. But in the case of shortened telomeres, cells are no longer able to divide, resulting in a host of aging-related complications, including organ and tissue degeneration.
This article is proof as to how far we have come in only 25 years. Now I got my first lap top in 1991 when I started college. The thing is as much as we advanced in the last 25 years we will see a lot more in the next 15.
This is from Time:
Twenty-five years ago Saturday, on Sept. 20, 1989, Apple released its first “portable” Macintosh computer — and “portable” belongs in quotation marks, because Sisyphus might as well have been made to lift this thing up a hillside for eternity.
Coming in at a hefty 16 pounds — that’s more than five MacBook Airs, and about four of IBM’s rival product at the time — Apple’s Macintosh Portable had a price tag to match its weight: $6,500 got you the machine, loaded with super-modern features like an “active-matrix screen” and a “cursor-control device called a trackball,” as TIME described it in the Sept. 25, 1989, issue. The computer could also only run on a wall outlet when batteries were installed, unlike desktop computers.
This is a interesting take on what is coming and the possible good and bad aspects that could come out of it. He keeps talking about 2035 being the singularity and he is not alone as many people say its from 2030-2045. I like the definition of life 2.0 at 2020 and life 3.0 at 2030 and singularity or life 4.0 at 2045 but I think a argument can be made that it will happen by 2035.
In a sense humans will end as we become transhuman.
Last edited by Josseppie; 09-23-2014 at 05:24 PM..
Another breakthrough that will help have reverse aging.
Researchers at the Salk Institute have discovered a toggle switch for aging cells. By controlling the growth of telomeres, it may eventually be possible to coax healthy cells to keep dividing and generating even in old age.
The cells in our bodies are constantly dividing, replenishing our lungs, skin, liver, and other organs. Regrettably, most human cells can't keep on dividing forever. Each time a cell divides, a cellular "timekeeper" at the ends of the chromosomes shortens. These timekeepers, called telomeres, are like the aglets at the end of your shoelaces — those important bits of plastic that prevent the lace ends from fraying. But in the case of shortened telomeres, cells are no longer able to divide, resulting in a host of aging-related complications, including organ and tissue degeneration.
Heh I read that article elsewhere (or a similar one) and they have found a way to switch the telomerase Off not on, this is good stuff though as you could stop cancer (not cure but stop). In the article it was also branded as longevity-switch though.
It is a bit too optimistic I think (if you combine an "Ãœber" and self driving cars, you could cut out 9 out of 10 cars) but what ever number it might be, less cars needed means the cars in use could be more expensive (to create / tend to) for the same user price or just cheaper for the consumer of course.
Man, it was just a couple of years ago when I choosed the 45nm E8400 over the 65nm Q6600... and now they will make 7nm chips. That's 41 to 86 times moore :-)
That is what has happened. LIDAR has come down in price is smaller and better all in just a few years. Do you think it will suddenly stop now? I do not and the impact will be seen by 2020.
Ok, now we're on to something here - Finally!
I guess the question is, do we have enough data to distinguish between a smooth trend that can be fit by an elementary function such as an exponential, and an erratic an "unextrapolable" (word?) change?
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Cellular Toggle Switch Could Herald An Anti-Aging Breakthrough
