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Old 09-24-2014, 11:18 AM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond View Post
I don't understand what you are looking for, the data is everywhere, computer power price is crumbling since 1890 and CPU power goes up! Still does! Just compare a PC from 2005 with one from today...

And if you can't imagine a neo cortex (6 layers of around 90.000.000.000 neurons interconnected) dreaming of parallel computers to run then I can't do anything for you (hint: it's ridiculously easy to treat in parallel).

So please, stop dragging in that "speed stopped @ 2005" because it doesn't matter and you have the proof just by comparing 2014 computers vs 2005 computers.
Fortunately, that's already been done for us. And the fact is, it has been flat for over a decade now.

The Free Lunch Is Over: A Fundamental Turn Toward Concurrency in Software

I just looked around at the latest Intel processors. They're around 3-5 GHz, just like in 2003. No change at all in 11 years ...
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Assuming nothing goes wrong of course.

Interestingly enough, machines have been answering phones and directing people around for 20 years already, and they have not rendered humans obsolete. When I call an insurance company or cell phone company, etc., some part of the time I still need to talk to a human. So I spend the 5 minutes or whatever trying to get past the machine, which won't meet my needs, and then talk to a real person.


How do you know the virtual nurse thing won't be the same way? Perhaps they will fill some of the need that human nurses currently do, but it doesn't mean we won't need human nurses, just as the automated systems don't mean you never need to talk to a real person.
They have been taking away jobs its just recently AI has become good enough to really start to make a impact and since the numbers are bigger when they double they are advancing faster and faster so the changes we will see in the next 6 years will be more then the past 20.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:21 AM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
They have been taking away jobs its just recently AI has become good enough to really start to make a impact and since the numbers are bigger when they double they are advancing faster and faster so the changes we will see in the next 6 years will be more then the past 20.
It doesn't matter how many times you repeat that line, you have not given a convincing argument for that.

I have explained very clearly why it is that the exponential argument fails without further qualification.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Fortunately, that's already been done for us. And the fact is, it has been flat for over a decade now.

The Free Lunch Is Over: A Fundamental Turn Toward Concurrency in Software

I just looked around at the latest Intel processors. They're around 3-5 GHz, just like in 2003. No change at all in 11 years ...
This article came out in 2005 when the smart phone was just coming out and today we have wearable tech right on schedule. So we have gone through a paradigm and starting the next so instead of slowing down things are speeding up why we will merge with the technology in the 2020's.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
It doesn't matter how many times you repeat that line, you have not given a convincing argument for that.

I have explained very clearly why it is that the exponential argument fails without further qualification.
Have you seen this from 60 minutes?

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Old 09-24-2014, 11:27 AM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
That is the definition of the singularity. No one can really predict what will happen after.
No, the singularity is a (hypothesized) time when technological change happens exposively fast.

Unpredictable is not the same thing. It could be unpredictable simply because we don't know what the next specific technology will be, but that would not be a singularity, just unpredictable.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:28 AM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
This article came out in 2005 when the smart phone was just coming out and today we have wearable tech right on schedule. So we have gone through a paradigm and starting the next so instead of slowing down things are speeding up why we will merge with the technology in the 2020's.
Right, you cherry pick the predictions Kurzweil got right and ignore the fact that he also predicted CPU speed would increase exponentially when it has been flat and proved him wrong.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:29 AM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Have you seen this from 60 minutes?

No, I'll watch it when I have time, probably tonight.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
No, the singularity is a (hypothesized) time when technological change happens exposively fast.

Unpredictable is not the same thing. It could be unpredictable simply because we don't know what the next specific technology will be, but that would not be a singularity, just unpredictable.
If you listen to Ray Kurzweil the reason the term singularity is used is because at that point we will be advancing so fast that its impossible to predict after. Why they took the term as you can not see past a singularity.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Right, you cherry pick the predictions Kurzweil got right and ignore the fact that he also predicted CPU speed would increase exponentially when it has been flat and proved him wrong.
Ray Kurzweil has proven that software is not stuck in the mud.
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