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Old 09-24-2014, 11:35 AM
 
141 posts, read 128,470 times
Reputation: 35

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Turn telomerase off?

Won't that create a condition similar to Hutchinson-Gilford Progeria Syndrome?
I'm no doctor but I don't understand why it would?

You can live without telomerase for easily 10 years before trouble starts (telomeres gets too short. There is a medical genetic condition that creates just this but I don't remember the name) which would give a terminal cancer patient a lot of years firstly and secondly a hope for a cure.
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Old 09-24-2014, 12:13 PM
 
141 posts, read 128,470 times
Reputation: 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Right, you cherry pick the predictions Kurzweil got right and ignore the fact that he also predicted CPU speed would increase exponentially when it has been flat and proved him wrong.
Ooh, I see!

I was about to class you as a troll but you have the idea that you have proven "the great Ray Kurzweil" wrong! That is why you hammer that CPU-speed fact!

Congratz, but hey, why don't you tell him? It is not like he isn't answering mails on his website and he's answer will, I guess, be most enlightening.

Personally I couldn't care less though as overall computing power is on a runaway increase and I think that is enough but cheers to you for finding it.

I must also say that even if some of his predictions are slightly off, mostly in time and say a year or three (sometimes before, sometimes after) which seems normal, for me he isn't the person predicting X at year Y but a person that predicts a whole new future because not of A but of A,B,C,D....M
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Old 09-24-2014, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond View Post
Ooh, I see!

I was about to class you as a troll but you have the idea that you have proven "the great Ray Kurzweil" wrong! That is why you hammer that CPU-speed fact!

Congratz, but hey, why don't you tell him? It is not like he isn't answering mails on his website and he's answer will, I guess, be most enlightening.

Personally I couldn't care less though as overall computing power is on a runaway increase and I think that is enough but cheers to you for finding it.

I must also say that even if some of his predictions are slightly off, mostly in time and say a year or three (sometimes before, sometimes after) which seems normal, for me he isn't the person predicting X at year Y but a person that predicts a whole new future because not of A but of A,B,C,D....M
Ray Kurzweil has proven that software is not stuck in the mud. The thing is this is a hard topic to fully understand and honestly most people I talk to about this just do not get it. Why I never get mad or frustrated but just keep explaining how, why and the impact of information technology advancing exponentially.
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Old 09-24-2014, 04:03 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond View Post
Ooh, I see!

I was about to class you as a troll but you have the idea that you have proven "the great Ray Kurzweil" wrong! That is why you hammer that CPU-speed fact!

Congratz, but hey, why don't you tell him? It is not like he isn't answering mails on his website and he's answer will, I guess, be most enlightening.

Personally I couldn't care less though as overall computing power is on a runaway increase and I think that is enough but cheers to you for finding it.

I must also say that even if some of his predictions are slightly off, mostly in time and say a year or three (sometimes before, sometimes after) which seems normal, for me he isn't the person predicting X at year Y but a person that predicts a whole new future because not of A but of A,B,C,D....M
I have simply pointed out a prediction that he made, which has not come to pass. I am neither a saint nor just trolling. The point needs to be made when data is used selectively, that's all.
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Old 09-24-2014, 04:13 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Ray Kurzweil has proven that software is not stuck in the mud. The thing is this is a hard topic to fully understand and honestly most people I talk to about this just do not get it. Why I never get mad or frustrated but just keep explaining how, why and the impact of information technology advancing exponentially.
Some software is stuck and other software isn't.

And "technology continues to advance exponentially" is still a non-meaningful claim without further specificity, as I explained in post #1615.
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Old 09-24-2014, 04:15 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond View Post
I'm no doctor but I don't understand why it would?

You can live without telomerase for easily 10 years before trouble starts (telomeres gets too short. There is a medical genetic condition that creates just this but I don't remember the name) which would give a terminal cancer patient a lot of years firstly and secondly a hope for a cure.
Fair enough. I thought you were trying to argue it as a way of reversing senescence in normal patients.
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Old 09-24-2014, 04:19 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond View Post
Well, the article clearly states that already (calculations made in an existing city and it will obviously be different for the countryside).

But even if it only "saves" one car out of ten and only for cities and people start to abandon urban areas it still is a win.
Well, isn't it overkill to do all that if all you want is a reduction in vehicle use which could be accomplished much more easily by simply raising the price of gas?
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Old 09-24-2014, 04:50 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Have you seen this from 60 minutes?

Ok, I finally watched it.

Yes, a lot of low-skill jobs are being lost to robots these days. However, at the same time, human workers are still employed in a wide range of tasks that seem like robots should easily be able to handle (e.g. truck loading and unloading).

I would want to know what determines when robots will be employed? If you look at loading and unloading jobs currently done by robots, and compare those to loading and unloading jobs currently done by humans, how do they differ?
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Old 09-24-2014, 05:11 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,262 posts, read 24,470,623 times
Reputation: 4395
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Some software is stuck and other software isn't.

And "technology continues to advance exponentially" is still a non-meaningful claim without further specificity, as I explained in post #1615.
Ray Kurzweil has proven that software is not stuck in the mud.

This thread was started in 2012. Back then we did not have wearable tech, now we do. In the next 5 years it will change society in ways few people saw coming. I was one of the few who saw it coming. All because information technology advances exponentially.
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Old 09-24-2014, 05:21 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,598,983 times
Reputation: 16235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Ray Kurzweil has proven that software is not stuck in the mud.

This thread was started in 2012. Back then we did not have wearable tech, now we do. In the next 5 years it will change society in ways few people saw coming. I was one of the few who saw it coming. All because information technology advances exponentially.
The same thing you've been saying for over 10 pages of posts.

And still just as flawed, for the same reasons.

Seriously, if you're going to repeat that over and over without engaging any counterpoints or acknowledging the problems with your argument, why are we wasting our time?

A robot can repeat it for you
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