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We knew leaving the EU was just the beginning, not the end. Trade talks will now take up all of 2020. The Tories want to avoid a no deal Brexit. Hopefully, the EU want the same.
Boris is going to tie it all up with a law saying the end of 2020 is the end of discussions. So, that will get the attention of both EU negotiators, and ours. No dragging things out for years, which the EU would love.
It's going to be a rocky 2020, but it will end one way or the other a year from now.
Except a no deal is not the end of brexit.
The day after a no deal the trade negotiators will sit back down and brexit will keep plodding along.
OK, so let's take a longer term perspective. Compare where sterling is today against where it was on the eve of the Referendum result.
Why not pick any arbitary date in the years before the referendum and compare sterling to what it was ?
I've lived long enough to remember when Sterling and the Dollar were at virtual parity.
Using Sterling as a measure of how good or bad political decisions are is ludicrous because there are so many other variables.
FWIW, I traded $250,000 into Sterling three days before the election.
If I'd done it a month earlier I would have been £10,000 better off but I couldn't.
If I done it a day after the election I would have been considerably worse off.
What's your point other than to prove that currency makrets fluctuate for many different reasons.
Why not pick any arbitary date in the years before the referendum and compare sterling to what it was ?
I've lived long enough to remember when Sterling and the Dollar were at virtual parity.
Using Sterling as a measure of how good or bad political decisions are is ludicrous because there are so many other variables.
FWIW, I traded $250,000 into Sterling three days before the election.
If I'd done it a month earlier I would have been £10,000 better off but I couldn't.
If I done it a day after the election I would have been considerably worse off.
What's your point other than to prove that currency makrets fluctuate for many different reasons.
Because the day before the referendum result represents the status quo ante of the value the markets put on the pound, effectively their confidence in the strength of the UK economy, immediately before the markets were shocked by the one new piece of information that the UK had voted to leave the EU, which then caused the value of our currency to fall through the floor.
Obviously if you compare the value with 40 years ago there have been a huge number of factors which affect the value, but the crash in the hours after the referendum was only caused by one thing, the negative news of the referendum result, and there has not been nearly enough positive news since then to get back to anywhere near those levels. Even the Boris bounce on Friday with some more certainty about the future direction was nowhere near enough to recoup the losses on referendum night, and those gains have since evaporated anyway a couple of days later.
Good for you that you made some extra dosh arbitraging the future of our people, the wealthy can always make money on events, I'm sure it will pay for the next jolly to the Caribbean to watch the cricket. But that won't be any comfort to the people who will see their lives seriously affected by the consequences of Brexit.
They don't have the luxury of worrying whether they can make an extra £10k clicking a few buttons at the right time to exploit currency movements, for them the consequences might well be the loss of a job in the car industry meaning no food on the table next Christmas for their children, or having to sleep in a doorway after Boris cuts benefits again to pay for tanking public finances after brexit, or farmers driven to suicide through despair as their crops rot into the ground because Brexit means they no longer have anybody to pick their crop and feed our country.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MnM258
Because the day before the referendum result represents the status quo ante of the value the markets put on the pound, effectively their confidence in the strength of the UK economy, immediately before the markets were shocked by the one new piece of information that the UK had voted to leave the EU, which then caused the value of our currency to fall through the floor.
Obviously if you compare the value with 40 years ago there have been a huge number of factors which affect the value, but the crash in the hours after the referendum was only caused by one thing, the negative news of the referendum result, and there has not been nearly enough positive news since then to get back to anywhere near those levels. Even the Boris bounce on Friday with some more certainty about the future direction was nowhere near enough to recoup the losses on referendum night, and those gains have since evaporated anyway a couple of days later.
Good for you that you made some extra dosh arbitraging the future of our people, the wealthy can always make money on events, I'm sure it will pay for the next jolly to the Caribbean to watch the cricket. But that won't be any comfort to the people who will see their lives seriously affected by the consequences of Brexit.
They don't have the luxury of worrying whether they can make an extra £10k clicking a few buttons at the right time to exploit currency movements, for them the consequences might well be the loss of a job in the car industry meaning no food on the table next Christmas for their children, or having to sleep in a doorway after Boris cuts benefits again to pay for tanking public finances after brexit, or farmers driven to suicide through despair as their crops rot into the ground because Brexit means they no longer have anybody to pick their crop and feed our country.
Because the day before the referendum result represents the status quo ante of the value the markets put on the pound, effectively their confidence in the strength of the UK economy, immediately before the markets were shocked by the one new piece of information that the UK had voted to leave the EU, which then caused the value of our currency to fall through the floor.
.
It probably doesnt youd need to go back to some daye after the Cameron election but before announcing a Brexit referendum.
The easy way is to apply a linear regression that smooths the hourly variances and shows the overall trend.
I have just watched a very subdued Jeremy Corbyn, offering his congratulations to Boris Johnson, on his election victory. In fact, it looked like all the strength has drained from Corbyn's body.
Boris accepted with good grace, and seemed himself restrained, and not wanting to kick a man when he is down.
Jeremy Corbyn is an old man of 70 years of age, and it seems to have caught up with him all at once. Time to go Jeremy. Go look after your allotment, and relax, and enjoy your life. I think it would be a good idea, after a short time, to resign from his seat, and let some young, and eager person fight an election for his place in Parliament.
He fought for what he believes in, and it just wasn't what the people wanted. They want Brexit pushed along throughout 2020, and to end our membership of the EU, and hopefully get a trade deal we can live with, a year from now.
Britain is going to be an independent nation, for the first time in almost 50 years. I know we have the talented people in this country to make a success of it.
The UK has always been an independent nation, that's why we have a seat at the UN, and other countries have ambassadors here, they don't just have them in Brussels to cover the whole of the EU. The UK is recognised as an independent country by all other independent countries in the world.
Being a member of the EU doesn't make a country not independent any more than being a member of the UN, or the WTO, or FIFA makes a country not independent. I mean seriously, are people saying that Germany is not an independent country now, or France, or the US for being part of NAFTA, or countries that are in ASEAN, or NATO, or MERCOSUR?
The UK has always been an independent nation, that's why we have a seat at the UN, and other countries have ambassadors here, they don't just have them in Brussels to cover the whole of the EU. The UK is recognised as an independent country by all other independent countries in the world.
Being a member of the EU doesn't make a country not independent any more than being a member of the UN, or the WTO, or FIFA makes a country not independent. I mean seriously, are people saying that Germany is not an independent country now, or France, or the US for being part of NAFTA, or countries that are in ASEAN, or NATO, or MERCOSUR?
Being a member of the EU limits your independence however. No EU country can negotiate trade agreements, they have to accept certain requirements whether they like it or not. Whether that's independent or not is purely a matter of perspective, the US wouldn't consider it independence, Tibet certainly would.
The UK has always been an independent nation, that's why we have a seat at the UN, and other countries have ambassadors here, they don't just have them in Brussels to cover the whole of the EU. The UK is recognised as an independent country by all other independent countries in the world.
Being a member of the EU doesn't make a country not independent any more than being a member of the UN, or the WTO, or FIFA makes a country not independent. I mean seriously, are people saying that Germany is not an independent country now, or France, or the US for being part of NAFTA, or countries that are in ASEAN, or NATO, or MERCOSUR?
We have been tied to EU law since we joined back in 1973. It was much less so, when it was just the Common Market, which we joined. The people went along with it, as a way of selling our goods without tariffs in the small Common Market back then.
It was expanded, and morphed into the EU, a much more political animal. We signed away more and more of our sovereign powers to the EU, with each treaty we signed. The EU got bigger and bigger, as new countries joined.
We never signed on for millions of Europeans to come live in our country, causing all the problems I have listed before. The end of us being a member of the EU, began when eastern Europeans came flooding into our country, starting after Tony Blair allowed them to do so. Most other EU countries had a period of time, those folks didn't have work rights. Blair allowed them to come, and take jobs. I remember clearly in the newspapers....... we expect about 10,000 says Blair. Almost a million came.
This was the beginning of the end of our being members of the EU. The folks who came out and voted Tory last Thursday, did so because of unlimited immigration, without end. That's the truth of it. The English don't want to become a minority in their own land. Whatever the financial cost, we don't want it. We want it stopping. That's what we voted for. Boris knows it, and now Corbyn knows it.
We want eastern European criminals throwing out of our country. We want bands of gypsies, here with no intention to work, beyond sitting their women down in our town centres, holding a baby in one hand, and the other out begging, removing from the country. We don't want foreigners coming here to use our NHS. We want our country back.
The Tories know what this is all about. We want change, and our country for us first, not foreigners.
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