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Old 08-17-2016, 04:55 PM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,614,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean York View Post
"Will"

Really? This is England. Have you not learned from the previous models, that downgrades should always be expected.
"Seems"

Like in July, when it got downgraded and then immediately upgraded on the next run?

Or the upcoming cool/wet/windy spell, which has now been upgraded to average temps, dry, and not windy?

 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:01 PM
 
Location: York
6,517 posts, read 5,824,887 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
Like in July, when it got downgraded and then immediately upgraded on the next run?

Or the upcoming cool/wet/windy spell, which has now been upgraded to average temps, dry, and not windy?
Or the supposed heatwave that we're apparently having right now, with temperatures in the mid 30's...
Downgrades happen far more often.
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:02 PM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,614,499 times
Reputation: 3099
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean York View Post
Or the supposed heatwave that we're apparently having right now, with temperatures in the mid 30's...
Downgrades happen far more often.
Right now there are 4 different models that all agree.

I guess if the models were all hinting at well below average conditions next week, you would accept them as fact?
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:05 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,112 posts, read 29,619,437 times
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It's good that all major models agree - before it was GFS on its own. ECM is the most accurate model, followed by UKMO, so their support really is crucial IMO.

The charts look like late August 2005 when it reached 30C.
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:06 PM
 
Location: York
6,517 posts, read 5,824,887 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
Right now there are 4 different models that all agree.
It's still a week away though. I'll believe it when it's showing it 24 hours before.
I hope it does happen of course. I'm just always sceptical.


That's my issue with summer really. I like temperatures in the 80's, but to get that is such a lottery in this country. You have to pray and get excited about models showing warmth that most people on the forum would call regular summer temperatures.
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:07 PM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,614,499 times
Reputation: 3099
Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post

The charts look like late August 2005 when it reached 30C.
We got 32c on the last day of August 2005. Funnily enough, August 2005 was the last time we had a normal August, and it looks like this month may end up being normal too.
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:09 PM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,614,499 times
Reputation: 3099
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean York View Post
It's still a week away though. I'll believe it when it's showing it 24 hours before.
The models 24-48 hrs ago were showing some atrocious conditions for the next few days; highs of 18-21c and up to 15mm rain on one day. Now they are showing highs of 22-25c, with a few mm rain at most on Friday.
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:11 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,112 posts, read 29,619,437 times
Reputation: 8820
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean York View Post
It's still a week away though. I'll believe it when it's showing it 24 hours before.
I hope it does happen of course. I'm just always sceptical.


That's my issue with summer really. I like temperatures in the 80's, but to get that is such a lottery in this country. You have to pray and get excited about models showing warmth that most people on the forum would call regular summer temperatures.
Yeah, if that's the kind of weather you want then this country will disappoint more often than not. For me, the past few days have been bliss - 22/23C and sunny skies, though today started off with low cloud.
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:15 PM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,614,499 times
Reputation: 3099
August here has been pretty much exactly as you would expect so far. People on netweather are going on like it's the next 1976 or 1995, having forgotten what a normal August is like.

Meteociel - Climatologie mensuelle de London (UK)
 
Old 08-17-2016, 05:16 PM
 
Location: York
6,517 posts, read 5,824,887 times
Reputation: 2558
Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
Yeah, if that's the kind of weather you want then this country will disappoint more often than not. For me, the past few days have been bliss - 22/23C and sunny skies, though today started off with low cloud.
The last few days have indeed been lovely. I've certainly been out enjoying it.
Obviously I like warmer weather, but I'm not going to get that in the UK. If the summer here was guaranteed 22-23C, with clear sunny skies like recently, I'd be more than happy. The cloudiness is probably a bigger factor than temperature for me tbh.

Maybe I'll ask Santa to add 100 hours of sun onto each of our summer months. That'd be a great present.
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