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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
954 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Some clouds and virga moving though Valley County at the moment,
but they don`t seem to be strengthening and models have them
weakening over the next couple hours. Otherwise, it`ll be breezy
but winds don`t look strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory. TFJ
Previous Discussion...
The week starts off warm and dry, but will end much differently.
Upstairs, upper level ridging is in place right now, but the axis
of the ridge will begin to shift eastward today. In its place, an
upper level trough begins to take over.
Short term: Today`s the last day of 70s for highs for a while for
many locations. Most spots will be in the 60s tomorrow, with 70s
being confined to portions of the Yellowstone Valley in Prairie
County, and that`s pretty much it. Clouds will be thickening up
as well tonight into tomorrow, and there could be a shower or two
south of the Missouri River this evening, but confidence is low on
it occurring.
Long term: By Friday and Saturday, models indicate that a fairly
deep upper level trough will begin to dig into the Pacific
Northwest that moves over Montana by Sunday. Several disturbances
are expected to kick out ahead of this trough, triggering rounds
of showers through the weekend and into early next week.
While this upper trough digs in, a surface low is forecast to
develop to our south in eastern Wyoming or eastern Colorado
(depending on the model one glances at), cranking the winds up a
bit and filtering in colder air. The air should be cold enough to
get snow to fall in parts of the area, and potentially to
accumulate, particularly in the higher elevations of the Little
Rockies. Confidence in accumulating snow is low at this time, but
there`s much greater confidence in there being a good deal of cold
rain for many locations.
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