February & Early March 2016 U.S Stormy Pattern (Rain & Snowstorms) (places, cyclone)
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Oh boy. GFS Ensembles not only east of the Operational but its much east of its previous run.
See it?
12z run storm near Delaware Wednesday 7pm
18z run storm off the coast Wednesday 7pm
Is this the new trend? One that favors the coast for snow but svrews the interior since precip will be less. (Unless its a huge storm with a large precip field)
The high pressure up north formed by confluence is going to be a major factor in this but I hope the GFS 18z run if correct. Looks like NYC will get dumped on if this storm stalls!
No time to analyze every model but not getting a cozy feeling that this is a big snowstorm or at least for the coastal areas.
Here's the Canadian00z. When the 850mb freezing line is so disconnected and far from thre storm center it's not a great snowstorm for anyone (since most of the moisture is near the center) But that doesnt mean you cant get snow before and after the storm is near.
No time to analyze every model but not getting a cozy feeling that this is a big snowstorm or at least for the coastal areas.
Here's the Canadian00z. When the 850mb freezing line is so disconnected and far from thre storm center it's not a great snowstorm for anyone (since most of the moisture is near the center) But that doesnt mean you cant get snow before and after the storm is near.
Vermont still looking good for a snowstorm.
How? It's in the lightest precipitation color, so not much snow. Hmm. Depends whether you go by the GFS or GEM.
Sorry, rush posted before. Meant Vermont still looking good because they are on the cold side of things even with the storm closer. Yes High ratio, Yes less precip but I was thinking more in the lines of where the cold side is. Vermont is on that side. I don't think the storm goes up the Appalachians again.
Nice note on where the energy is now. So far away! I think comes on shore in the West Sunday?
Anyway .. NWS Sterling Virginia still mentions the chance still there but also note what I said, consensus showing lack of cold air now.
Quote:
BOTH MODELS STILL SHOW LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOST RECENT TREND OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION...BUT THE
MENTION OF SNOW WAS KEPT FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE THIS COULD STILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM HOWEVER THE LACK OF COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAKES THIS PROSPECT A BIT DIFFICULT. THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE OPS ALONG I-95 WOULD ALSO MAKE THIS DIFFICULT.
So this storm looks slightly further east that of this weeks storm whose heaviest precip fell between Ottawa and Rochester.
As of now the storm seems like it is Binghampton-Burlington, VT
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