Why couldn't that Jet axis be in the Atlantic inctead??
Severe Thunderstorms possible in Mid Atlantic with a strong storm heading towards Lake Erie.
Look how far west the snow line is.
Keep in mind, we may see some snow/mix at the very beginning. See discussion below.
It's never good for snowfall whenever you need Cold Air Damming or overrunning precip for any, Because eventually that Damming weakens and the warm advection overtakes the area.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL RIDGE
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WITH COLD AIR DAMMING PRESENT IN THE ISOBAR
FIELD. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE FOR A COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG/OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM OVERRUNNING BECOMES
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
PLAIN RAIN AS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY
COLDER FROM THE COLD AIR DAMMING WITH MORE OF A WINTRY MIX. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN INLAND AS THE DAMMING
SIGNATURE WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS CLOSER AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT LEADS TO A STEADY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. LARGE SCALE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
THERE SHOULD BE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.