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Old 12-14-2021, 09:47 AM
 
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Near record warmth tomorrow



Latest CFSv2 for the week of Christmas



Last edited by chicagogeorge; 12-14-2021 at 09:56 AM..
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Old 12-14-2021, 10:56 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Little chance for any snow and cold the rest of December south of I-80 as long as the -PNA pattern stays in place and allows for western trough and downslope blowtorching into the Great Plains that propagates eastward.


You can still get cold in the east even with a negative PNA during La Nina years

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Old 12-14-2021, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
You can still get cold in the east even with a negative PNA during La Nina years
Yes, I'm aware of that, but I haven't seen any impressive arctic airmasses at all in the models that push southward so far. This has not been a typical "weaker" La Nina event at all. In fact, I've noticed that many December months in recent times that the atmosphere almost as a Summer setup aloft, meaning a near Bermuda ridge style high pressure in the Southeast, and cold fronts that struggle to even push southward as far as the Ohio Valley. Another stalled out front for late this week and weekend around here with insane amounts of rainfall, on the order of 2-3'' if not more.
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Old 12-14-2021, 12:13 PM
 
29,590 posts, read 19,729,504 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Yes, I'm aware of that, but I haven't seen any impressive arctic airmasses at all in the models that push southward so far. This has not been a typical "weaker" La Nina event at all. In fact, I've noticed that many December months in recent times that the atmosphere almost as a Summer setup aloft, meaning a near Bermuda ridge style high pressure in the Southeast, and cold fronts that struggle to even push southward as far as the Ohio Valley. Another stalled out front for late this week and weekend around here with insane amounts of rainfall, on the order of 2-3'' if not more.


This will help push the cold further south


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Old 12-14-2021, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
This will help push the cold further south

It'll be interesting to watch the model evolution on that...
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Old 12-14-2021, 04:37 PM
 
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Old 12-14-2021, 05:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Near record warmth tomorrow



Latest CFSv2 for the week of Christmas

Tampa can't even get 66f for a low. Every year gets warmer and dryer.
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Old 12-14-2021, 10:15 PM
 
Location: Land of the Free
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Surprised the Weather Channel doesn't have a name associated with the fact that 230 million people will experience above avg temps while 100 million will experience below avg. Weather Condition Seidel? Maybe send him out and have him fake sweat under a heat lamp.
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Old 12-15-2021, 02:12 AM
 
Location: Always Above Average Alley
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Winter 2021/2022 weather discussion thread(Northern Hemisphere)-fgojefbvgaa1itr.jpeg

The December from Hell continues. Has a moderate risk EVER been issued this far north in December? Much of the moderate risk area still has snow cover. Is this the end of days?
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Old 12-15-2021, 05:38 AM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
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As usual, 0Z and 6Z GFS have little in the way of arctic air, a few "glancing blows" north of the Ohio River. Amazing how the Pacific pattern can screw up the entire winter in a large-scale way for most of the US.
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