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Everybody's talking about MJO, AO, NAO, PNA, AAO looking for a way out of this mess. But to me, it looks like classic La Nina. No end sight, the atmosphere is stuck in a giant mud pit. This will not end this winter.
Here are the GFS ensembles for the end of the month; Euro ensembles are similar. Looks pretty much like a classic La Nina pattern to me: way above average in the US southeast; way below average in Western Canada.
I used to go nuts looking at all the teleconnections... It gave me a headache and heartaches so I have the "take it as it comes" approach now while looking at the model changes. Everything thinks they'll find a reason but its just a big 10,000 piece puzzle out there.
But... Didn't the Polar Vortex gain strength last month into December? (means lack of consistent cold air in U.S)
Also.. Winter is a long way from being over, LaNina has a variable Pacific Jet and a Northern Branch that dips to the southeast. That can still happen.
There is a lot of concern from many on wx-twitter in regards to the upcoming pattern. Winter lovers and snow geese are getting increasing antsy scrutinizing every model run that comes out
So the bottom-line, despite the flip-flops from run to run on the guidance, the overall signals for a 2-4 week period of high latitude blocking and favorable MJO phases all point to a 2-4 week period of wintry weather in the east. How far south this gets still remains to be seen and will depend on whether we can fully squash the southern ridge or not. Regardless areas across the northern tier look to have winter weather during this period. How much snow ends up falling is anyone’s guess at this point, but at least the foundation (cold) will be laid for any potential precipitation events that may come up.
Patience is the key here and I believe at least some of you will be rewarded for your wait. -
From his blog, I added notations... GFS moves from Phase 7 to 8 (a colder phase for Eastern U.S), while Euro stalls the MJO in Phase 7. Add a Negative NAO to this and ….. Read his blog for more details
Also good to note, the MJO doesn't just go from Phase 7 or 8 back to 4 or 5 or 3. It has to re-enter the Circle of death (warmth) to get there or go all around it and that takes months sometimes.
One more blog/research paper to enjoy today...…….
Remember...… It's not a light switch, it's a step-down process.
This does a great job explaining the tropical troposphere/stratospheric connection that is evolving. We are in an east-based QBO and that helps explain the slow, but steady progression of the MJO to the east towards phase 8.
The cold tropospheric connection and the evolution of high latitude blocking are all connected. Remember, it's not just one feature or focus on one feature, but how all of these features interact with each other. Each time is different, unique, and challenging to figure out!
Coconuts growing all over since Tampa does not see 32f or below anymore. I wished this was Dec of 1983 when we got to 19f in Tampa and 1989 that got down to 26f in Tampa.
Coconuts makes sense. Wasn't 18 degrees the minimum to grow them anyway?
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(means lack of consistent cold air in U.S)
