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I'm a little late to this discussion, but I am interested in price movements and other aspects of housing in the NC mountains for an article I will be writing. First of all, as an early "adopter" of Jim Cramer, I thought he was both entertaining and savvy. I still think he is entertaining, but he is savvy only if you have the luxury and guts to be a day trader. His advice in this market has the half life of a mosquito...I think that Asheville's price drops coming late in the cycle is a good thing, not a bad one as others have implied. NC has pure demographics going for it; when all the bad stuff is over with in the housing market, the baby boomers up north who have been deferring their moves south will come back to the party. Asheville will benefit. That said, in most markets things will be worse before they will be better (hey, I could be President with a line like that!) given bad unemployment prospects for the coming year and a consumer credit default crisis that has not reared its ugly head yet. Sorry to sound like "Native," but he is probably more right than wrong.
NC has pure demographics going for it; when all the bad stuff is over with in the housing market, the baby boomers up north who have been deferring their moves south will come back to the party. Asheville will benefit.
Larry
It's subjective as to what benefit we will have in my opinion. Are they going to be bringing decent paying jobs to the area so that people who actually work here can find affordable housing without having to go out to the edge of the county or beyond? I highly doubt it, and thus what may be a benefit to you may not be to person A or B, etc.
It's subjective as to what benefit we will have in my opinion. Are they going to be bringing decent paying jobs to the area so that people who actually work here can find affordable housing without having to go out to the edge of the county or beyond? I highly doubt it, and thus what may be a benefit to you may not be to person A or B, etc.
I understand your point, Zoo. By "benefit," I meant eliminating foreclosures and stabilizing home prices, which cannot be a bad thing for everyone locally. As for "good" jobs, it depends what you mean by "good." Increased population will certainly be good for the retail, healthcare and residential construction sectors, as well as for the economy in general. Many of these jobs -- nurses, doctors, home building -- will require way more skills than simply being able to say "Do you want fries with that?"
I don't meant for this to sound harsh but lgavrich has touched on an important point in his post--there is basic structural change in the WNC economy and the sooner locals realize that and get back to school to learn a new profession the better off they'll be. Face it, the old labor intensive industries such as furniture making, textiles, and related industries have either been largely shipped overseas or downsized as a result of technological advances. Just last week the Citizen-Times newspaper closed its printing plant in Asheville and moved printing operations to Greenville. Southern Railway once had a major railroad yard on the south side of town and that is all gone now. I'm sure the locals could recite a lot of other examples of closed factories and industries.
Healthcare is a major new growth industry with associated support services--all those old retirees need doctors as well as diapers and everything in between. Doesn't the state or county have any programs aimed at re-training workers so they can get good jobs? I have a couple friends who both work in local hospitals--one came from Florida and the other from Boston--why weren't locals available to get those jobs? Both have wives that moved to Asheville with them and who are in the medical field too--one is a dental hygienist and the other is a physicians assistant. One owns a home in Leicester and the other just bought in W. Asheville last May. That's 4 good jobs taken by imports because the locals couldn't fill them! And one fellow told me last week that his hospital is actively looking for folks to fill job openings there.
It is a shame that the state has not been successful in replacing those lost industries with new technology industries like have grown up in the RTP area. If your state and county governments don't have training and redevelopment programs then it sounds like you need to elect some new people who will--LJP
First of all, as an early "adopter" of Jim Cramer, I thought he was both entertaining and savvy. I still think he is entertaining, but he is savvy only if you have the luxury and guts to be a day trader. His advice in this market has the half life of a mosquito...
Actually, Cramer generally gives a 6-12 month time horizon for his calls. Day traders trade every day, which is hardly what Cramer recommends. Of course, he's just one person, and anyone who puts their blind faith in someone else is foolish imo (and Cramer would say the same thing . . . i.e., he's always ranting about doing your own homework).
Quote:
Sorry to sound like "Native," but he is probably more right than wrong.
lol . . . "Native"'s contributions to the subject have basically amounted to "it's a train wreck!!" and "we're all gonnnaaa diiiiiieeee!!!" -- hardly useful information in having any kind of serious, rational conversation.
If the stock market is any indicator, as it often is, the housing market should bottom in late 2009/early 2010. Of course, that doesn't mean things will immediately shoot back up, but that would at least indicate the beginning of the end.
Regardless of when the housing market bottoms, most people think it will be slow going for some time, which I think is a reasonable conclusion to draw.
Obviously a lot depends on the success of the stimulus package currently in the Senate. In the meantime, the market for the average homebuyer in Asheville seems to be holding up fairly well.
It is a shame that the state has not been successful in replacing those lost industries with new technology industries like have grown up in the RTP area.
Whatever happened to that data center that Google was going to build?
Those technology companies in RTP are laying people off in droves (IBM, Sprint, Ericsson etc.).
Yea, I know, my daughter was one of them. However when the economy does come back the high paying jobs are there not Asheville!
As for Google I read or heard that they have put their expansion on hold and wasn't that in Lenoir or Hickory?
Lenoir. And it was a warehouse which the state attracted with large tax incentives. Big thing in the area now is the new Super Walmart just south in Granite Falls...whoopee!
As for the health care boom; a number of local hospitals are currently in a hiring freeze of laying off people. These jobs also require specialized training and a certain breed of people to preform well and thrive in the job. A significant portion of the populace is not cut out for this work.
These jobs also require specialized training and a certain breed of people to preform well and thrive in the job. A significant portion of the populace is not cut out for this work.
That's for sure, it takes motivation and education. And as long as the locals don't have them they'll be slinging hash at MacDonalds or greeting customers at Walmart while halfbacks and newcomers will get the higher paying jobs!
Yea, I know, my daughter was one of them. However when the economy does come back the high paying jobs are there not Asheville!
Sorry to hear. Tough times.
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