Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
though it won't be a landslide. But he has narrowed his appeal too much to older White men who miss the machismo of the 1970s, and that's not a winning demographic in 2016.
I'm not sure how it would not be a landslide if his main support is coming predominantly from white men and this wouldn't even be all white men. He has alienated white women, most Blacks, almost all Latinos and Middle Easterners. Asian voting patterns closely follow those of other minorities. I don't see how it could not be a landslide.
I'm not sure how it would not be a landslide if his main support is coming predominantly from white men and this wouldn't even be all white men. He has alienated white women, most Blacks, almost all Latinos and Middle Easterners. Asian voting patterns closely follow those of other minorities. I don't see how it could not be a landslide.
I'm not sure why Georgia and Louisiana would be exceptions. Those two states are the deep south and are FILLED with many of the extreme racist types Trump has energized. There were KKK rallies in Georgia just recently. Trump also has a better chance of winning Ohio than Michigan as Ohio is a swing state where as Michigan tends to be more reliably Democrat.
Here's what Trump can expect in a best case scenario:
He will run the Great Plains from Texas up through the Dakotas. He will run the deep south from Louisiana to South Carolina. He will likely take Tennessee as well as Arizona and most of the intermountain states like Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. We already know he has no chance in hell on the west coast, northeast and upper Midwest. Northeast here includes Pennsylvania, he will not win PA. He will not win Hawaii either. It's along the edges of these regions where things will get dicey for him. Within the Midwest, I already mentioned Ohio. Another question mark is Iowa which normally votes red but went for Obama in 2008. Indiana is even more reliably red but also went for Obama in '08. Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico and Colorado have been turning blue over the last decade so they quite likely won't be reliable.
Let's say we give him Indiana and leave out NC, VA, NM, CO and IA and MO. This would give him 181 electoral votes to Clintons 246. You need 270 to win. I also left out FL, CO, and NV which are also up in the air and Nevada too is turning bluer. He would have to pretty much run the rest of the board to win and this wasn't even possible for John McCain and Mitt Romney, both of which are far more moderate, especially Romney.
I predict he will not win Nevada. That brings Clinton's count to 252. He quite likely won't win New Mexico. That brings her to 257. At this point, she would only need to win one of either, Ohio, Virginia, Florida or North Carolina to win the election.
Their demographics, Georgia has growing minorities and it seems that Atlanta and surroundings are slowly turning blue. In 2012, Obama hasn't lost by much and in a worst case scenario it's the Deep South's most likely State to swing Democrat. As for Louisiana, i guess you are right, no chance of him losing there
Virginia and North Carolina shouldn't be hard to win for Hillary given the current trend.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
I've though he needs to sign up Kasich to win Ohio or Rubio to win Florida (both Kasich and Rubio have denied interest)....he needs to win both but Florida is the biggest open state prize...no Republican win is possible without pulling down Florida.
I don't know if Rubio would be enough to make Florida swing Republican, he didn't even carry his own state in the Primaries. What he would be decent at instead is pushing the most right leaning minorities to vote for him and Trump but i doubt a "moderate" such as Rubio would accept being Trump's running mate
Their demographics, Georgia has growing minorities and it seems that Atlanta and surroundings are slowly turning blue. In 2012, Obama hasn't lost by much and in a worst case scenario it's the Deep South's most likely State to swing Democrat. As for Louisiana, i guess you are right, no chance of him losing there
Virginia and North Carolina shouldn't be hard to win for Hillary given the current trend.
I don't know if Rubio would be enough to make Florida swing Republican, he didn't even carry his own state in the Primaries. What he would be decent at instead is pushing the most right leaning minorities to vote for him and Trump but i doubt a "moderate" such as Rubio would accept being Trump's running mate
While it is the deep south's most likely state to swing blue, that's relative to the other states and not necessarily meaning that it will. Georgia is bluer than it was but it's still a good ways from being blue. Not until a large enough percentage of transplants fill the metros like they have done in Virginia and North Carolina and Florida. Compared to those other states, Georgia just isn't yet a big draw. Atlanta is the most blue (really purple) part of Georgia and that's really only relative to the rest of the state.
LOL so, let us know how you came to your conclusion then genius.
he's up in Ohio, tied in Florida and Pennsylvania. Crushes her in the debates by pointing out how much of a war-Hawke she is. Win sanders supporters and anti-Hillarys (which there are many) with anti-establishment populist themes. Win election. Become president. Rip up nafta and other free trade agreements which have killed the middle class. End foreign finance of Israel and NATO bringing Money back to the US. Cut the corporate tax rates helping companies move back while also penalizing them for leaving. Raise taxes on the rich with off shore accounts while cutting Middle class taxes which are straining our economy. Invest big with saved up money in infrastructure to compete with Asia in a fast High-tech world. Make America great again.
he's up in Ohio, tied in Florida and Pennsylvania. Crushes her in the debates by pointing out how much of a war-Hawke she is. Win sanders supporters and anti-Hillarys (which there are many) with anti-establishment populist themes. Win election. Become president. Rip up nafta and other free trade agreements which have killed the middle class. End foreign finance of Israel and NATO bringing Money back to the US. Cut the corporate tax rates helping companies move back while also penalizing them for leaving. Raise taxes on the rich with off shore accounts while cutting Middle class taxes which are straining our economy. Invest big with saved up money in infrastructure to compete with Asia in a fast High-tech world. Make America great again.
Unfortunately, spring time polls don't elect the president in the fall. having said that, let me dissect this a bit:
Quote:
Rip up nafta and other free trade agreements which have killed the middle class.
The middle class was destroyed in the 80's with trickle-down economics, not in the 90's when NAFTA was created. The economy was stronger in the 90's then at any point in recent history and the middle class did well.
Quote:
End foreign finance of Israel and NATO bringing Money back to the US.
Ok, I agree that money should be spent at home first. But spend it on what? Sure we can do some highway repair provided they are interstates and US highways. Certainly, some of them need it trust me on that. But then what else? Education? That by and large is not up to the federal government as schools fall under state jurisdiction. This is why the state and condition of schools varies widely across the country. We Americans don't like the idea of helping other Americans, we consider this a free hand-out so it won't be spent there.
Quote:
Cut the corporate tax rates helping companies move back while also penalizing them for leaving.
Cutting corporate tax rates won't stop them from leaving. They'll leave when the next demand they make isn't met. I do agree with penalizing them when they do leave however.
Quote:
Raise taxes on the rich with off shore accounts while cutting Middle class taxes which are straining our economy.
Agree.
Quote:
Invest big with saved up money in infrastructure to compete with Asia in a fast High-tech world.
Yeah we've tried that in California and it ain't workin' out too well LOL. High speed rail is one infrastructure project Asia and Europe have that Californians have been dead set against. With the exception of Texas, it would take several states to be on board with this in the rest of the country to make it happen and I don't see this taking place. Switch and change are two things Americans don't like to do.
Predictive value doesn't mean 100% accurate. It's an estimate that factors in contingencies like timed news events.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
