Valley Fever In Arizona (Phoenix, Tucson: condo, statistics, swimming pool)

[ScaryTucson]

I'd much rather have hurricanes and tornadoes, earthquakes not sure. Other than a couple specific hurricanes, you can evacuate, and not many people get sick or die in hurricanes except the very poor in poor structures that cannot afford to evacuate (feel bad but what can you do), or the people too stubborn to evacuate (and that is their own fault).

I hear what you guys are saying, and appreciate the comments. At first, I thought along the same lines as many of you. I dug deep into this. Increasing awareness and funding would have most likely either already resulted in having a vaccine or at least resulted in anti-fungals that do not have to kill your kidneys and liver. So yes it is the fault of the reps.

There is no way it is 1 in 17,000, there are families where 3 out of 4 people in a single family have been inflicted. It is obviously a "hot spot" issue depending on the soil of where you live, possibly a danger zone area you hiked or were involved in construction at, and it appears to be (though they cannot confirm 100%) related to the way the soil is treated around landfills and around certain areas with certain fertilizers that increases the potency of the fungus. The problem is without a larger research budget they do not know what type of agriculture changes or waste dumping strategies companies need to make in order to slow this down.

There are professional sports players (multiple of them), including a couple PGA golfers (1 of which had a near-death case), some MLB's (two I know of), and others. How many people are on the PGA in the last few years, not many (what 1000)... And they didn't have MILD cases, they had near-death cases, so yah not 1 in 17,000.

They estimate 100,000 to 150,000 cases per year, and yes 60% aren't afflicted with symptoms (at least not immediately), but 40% of 100,000 is still an incredibly high number. Even if 90% of the 40% only get flu-like symptoms lasting a couple weeks to as long as a year, it's hard to say how many people would end up on the anti-virals exactly, since some have other illnesses that overtake them that were amplified by the damage VF did to them, they never had a chance to go on the anti-virals. The scarier thing is it never goes away, you could have symptoms 20 years later as your immune system is weaker.

I don't agree this can be compared to floods, hurricanes, or tornadoes (maybe all 3 combined if only comparing deaths). It is not the DEATH RATE of this disease that is so bad, it is the after-effects of what it does to peoples' health. Yes they survive, but it messes with some of their health for years, and in a fewer cases the rest of their life.

When you look at the actual number of people sickened or that missed work at least 3 weeks, it is epidemic in the past few years. It is almost as common as the flu during years where the flu isn't as widespread.

Of course nothing is scary when you aren't the one infected, but VF is way more commonly diagnosed than it was 5 years ago. It is the second most commonly diagnosed disease in the area, and it is also the most misdiagnosed, where they estimate maybe as few as only a few percentage of people are even properly diagnosed. 1/3rd of all pneumonia cases in the area are estimated to be from VF, etc... This means if it were always diagnosed correctly, it is the most common disease. Some of these stats could be overblown, yes, but what I look at is the fact multiple family members in a single family are sometimes afflicted (and that is just not possible if the stats were what the CDC quoted).

[jlawrence01]

I have heard Dr. Galgiano soak on several occasions on his specialty - Valley Fever. He said nothing to any of the groups that would inspire the panic that the OP is exhibiting.


The highlights of what he said was that a good portion of the Arizona population has been exposed to Valley Fever, had no ill effects and is immune from its effects. Perhaps 10% of those exposed to it have shown very minor symptoms. A very small fraction has serious reactions requiring treatments.


In my opinion, I would be far more concerned about diabetes, heart disease, auto accidents, and cancer than Valley Fever.


By the way, the regions exposed to Valley Fever run front the Central Valleys of California to West Texas.

[ScaryTucson]

First, I agree there is no reason to panic, because worry does nothing. I also think I am moving there regardless, but I will take some precautions. Hopefully the higher elevations are safer, because that is where I will hang out in weekends.

Keep in mind if I were a native to the area, had never smoked, and had no real other problems, I'd have very little worry, but I have never been exposed to it. I am from far east. There is a chance I had been exposed when I was younger during a camping trip, so maybe that will help me (hopefully).

I also think I am giving the worst case scenario, and it may not be as bad as what I have read. You can simply watch your local news (or go to their web site) and see the stories of the families that had multiple people afflicted in one family. This doesn't agree with the statistics, think carefully. So even if the worst case scenario isn't true, it's at best somewhere between my worst case scenario and what some others are saying.

Of course doctors aren't going to insight public panic, they can get in trouble for doing so by either people they report to, shunned by their colleagues, or their patients may start thinking of them as quacks. People misplace concern and do not have enough concern of the real problems, it's obvious. People are so scared of West Nile and similar things that have almost no infections, it's because the disease is local that it doesn't get the treatment that it deserves.

[Jukesgrrl]

I've been here ten years now and I have yet to meet a person who's had diagnosed-by-a-doctor Valley Fever. I know three dogs who had it, but they were all big dirt-diggers. You can get stuff anywhere. When I lived in New Jersey I got West Nile Virus.

When I lived in Pennsylvania I knew a couple of people who had Lyme Disease. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever is rampant in MO, AK, OK, and KS. People in KY, TN, VA, and NC get Ehrlichiosis. People think mosquito-borne malaria has been eliminated in the U.S., but there are always isolated outbreaks in the Deep South.

In Tucson you have a far worse chance of being hit by a car driven by a drunk driver or someone texting.

[ScaryTucson]

Originally Posted by Jukesgrrl

I've been here ten years now and I have yet to meet a person who's had diagnosed-by-a-doctor Valley Fever. I know three dogs who had it, but they were all big dirt-diggers. You can get stuff anywhere. When I lived in New Jersey I got West Nile Virus.

When I lived in Pennsylvania I knew a couple of people who had Lyme Disease. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever is rampant in MO, AK, OK, and KS. People in KY, TN, VA, and NC get Ehrlichiosis. People think mosquito-borne malaria has been eliminated in the U.S., but there are always isolated outbreaks in the Deep South.

In Tucson you have a far worse chance of being hit by a car driven by a drunk driver or someone texting.

That makes me feel better.

That is a good point...

ABQ or Vegas or St George-UT were my secondary choices, I chose Tucson because even though it's not the best job market in the world or anything, cost of living was lower than those places and any city with 1+ million is going to have some ok jobs. Vegas got the down-nod because so much casino business and tourism (not my field), and mainly it was TOO HOT. Yes, Tucson is very hot, but I live a bit higher up (heading towards 4k elevation), and if you look at Vegas avg low in summer, Vegas was more like Phoenix temp-wise.

St George looks good but heavy heavy Mormons, great economy but too small to support major industry yet. For the jobs it does have though, economy is great.

One reason I like Tucson is very little snow and ice so I don't have to worry about the idiots on the road as much, yet I'm still in the mountains, if you want to see snow, it's there down the road at just a bit higher up in the winter, but it's not around in the regularly traveled places.

I've been to almost every major city and many parts of the scenic US (east and west), and the areas south of Tucson between Sierra Vista and Nogales, that scenery is right up there with some of the best. I almost moved to Colorado, but I just couldn't take the wind and cold.

Pueblo's winter doesn't last nearly as long, but 40/18 avg is still pretty darn cold.

BTW, my new place in Tucson is over 3000 elevation, so hopefully that helps some!

[Serenity1944]

I have a suggestion - buy a mask and wear it outside. I use the I can breathe mask with a carbon filter on rare occasions if there is a fire burning somewhere or if strong fireplace stink in the air. No need to be embarrassed as occasionally I see others walking around with masks for dust blowing in the air.

[cjseliga]

Originally Posted by Jukesgrrl

In Tucson you have a far worse chance of being hit by a car driven by a drunk driver or someone texting.

I was going to say the same thing. You probably have a better chance of getting killed in a car accident in Tucson, than catching valley fever and dying from it.

[azdr0710]

don't know where you "read" or heard about valley fever....and what got you so scared....but move on and forget it....

it's a famously-hyped condition and very, very rarely does anybody even know they had it (feels like a cold or a flu).....

[ScaryTucson]

I read about it from all the standard places, noting that an estimated 150,000 people get it, 2/3rds of those in Phoenix and Tucson. So about 100,000 people here per year (if you google it, all the major sites say this is the estimate including Mayo Clinic and similar), 60% basically have almost no symptoms, and then about 30-35% of those 100k experience flu or cold-like symptoms and never really lasts much longer than a few weeks to a couple months, but possibly 5% to 10% of 100k getting major symptoms is still 5,000 to 10,000 people that end up (at least temporarily) on anti-virals, even though only 1% or so end up on them life-long or have near-deadly permanent complications. No doubt the death rate is very low because of the anti-virals, but if you get to the point of being on the anti-virals, you are in bad shape even though you may not die.

None of the sites really agree with how many people end up with major symptoms or on anti-virals (some say 1%, some say 2%, some say 10%, etc...). For dogs, the serious symptoms are something like 1 in 10 dogs.

The scary thing is that several sites say people just moving into the area are far more likely to develop a case with symptoms (none of the sites said exactly how much more likely).
Those are PER YEAR numbers, that is high for per-year stats.

I do not think it's something to totally ignore, but nothing I can do about it.

[ScaryTucson]

This is from the CDC's Site:

4. Valley fever is common in the southwestern United States.

In the U.S., over 65 percent of all valley fever cases occur in Arizona, and 30 percent occur in California. Most other cases occur in Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico.

Studies have shown that in some areas where valley fever is very common, such as southern Arizona, valley fever causes an estimated 15 percent to nearly 30 percent of all community-acquired pneumonias, but that less than 15 percent of patients with pneumonia symptoms are tested for valley fever.11,12 This suggests that there may be many more people with the disease than are reported.