When Millennials buy, they to to the exurbs (Atlanta: crime, student loans)

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by cqholt

I am not the writer or editor so I cannot make that call.

Yet you made the criticism. There have been no fewer than 1,000 "triumph of the city" articles in the 2000s discussing the Millennial takeover of urban cores across America. Hardly anyone says, "Hey, what about demographic info, education levels, etc.!" People seem perfectly content to let the actions of a few speak for the whole.

[brown_dog_us]

It was just a matter of time. Every generation has lived in cool locations until they get married and have kids. I bet some people on here believed they would never buy a mini van. lol. The lure of safe cul de sacs, good schools, and a neighborhood pool is strong my friends.

The real question is what percentage of the millennials will stay intown and put down roots. I get the feeling that it will be more than previous generations.

[CCATL]

Originally Posted by brown_dog_us

It was just a matter of time. Every generation has lived in cool locations until they get married and have kids. I bet some people on here believed they would never buy a mini van. lol. The lure of safe cul de sacs, good schools, and a neighborhood pool is strong my friends.

The real question is what percentage of the millennials will stay intown and put down roots. I get the feeling that it will be more than previous generations.

Yes, not everybody will stay in the city, but I think it all relative. Are there MORE of us than in the past, and how much more? Will the influx of people who choose to stay intown enough to keep Atlanta growing and densifying? I think the answer to that is yes. A lot of millenials will move out of the city for a number of reasons - just like every other generation, we have diverse lifestyles. Some like quiet rural areas, some like city life, some like cul-de-sacs in the burbs. A lot will depend on what they can afford and how close they are to work.

I do not think it is the "lure of safe cul de sacs, good schools, and a neighborhood pool" that takes most people to the suburbs though. I think education level (and the more than likely higher pay as that increases) is a much better predictor of where someone will live - the cheap exurbs, the moderately cheaper suburbs, or the more expensive intown neighborhoods. Also, the commute - as more high paying jobs make big moves back intown, the population will likely increase. I live intown with my wife and son, and wouldn't have it any other way. I value a neighborhood grid more than a cul-de-sac, I can walk down the street to a public pool and large park, or walk to a much smaller park with a playground. I can walk to restaurants and stores, with more and more opening. The schools are good, and are getting better and better - you don't have to move to the burbs for that anymore. I work intown and bike to work or take marta, so given that, intown is a no brainer for my family and I. I have some friends who moved to the burbs because it was closer to their jobs, not because they were having kids. Actually, one of those couples is getting ready to have a kid, and wants to leave their gated suburban community with a pool to come back intown.

[AnsleyPark]

Plenty of well educated and well off millenials out in these parts.

[testa50]

The data are extremely misleading and inconclusive, and not even for reasons of income and so forth.

The big problem is the percentage of overall units in an area that are owner-occupied, period. Intown, where far more apartment complexes or rental units exist versus the suburbs, you're very likely to get a lower percentage of housing units occupied by owner-occupant millennials. You're also very likely to have a smaller percentage of units occupied by owner-occupant middle age folks, elderly folks, whatever. It's this ridiculously massive source of statistical bias they didn't even start to account for.

I mean seriously, if a big apartment gets built in Old Fourth Ward, it means the percentage of housing units owner-occupied by millennials will necessarily fall. How does this justify an assertion that millennials prefer to buy in the suburbs?? It doesn't. And it most certainly can't be used to justify the corollary some people are attempting to draw, which is that millennials actually prefer the suburbs over intown.

Also the density of such units is completely not explained. How many owner-occupied millennial units exist in the big South Fulton blob vs the Brookwood blob? I have no earthly clue.

Also the ranges are quite misleading. Presumably they're quintiles. But yellow (3-5%) and bronze (5-7%) don't differ all that dramatically from green (7-10%), and red could be anything from 10% on up, but is likely going to be clustered just north of 10% as a bell chart. A difference between a 4.5% and a 10.5% rate of units being owner-occupied by millennials ain't all that dramatic, especially when you've got no idea how much the two rates are skewed by apartment complexes.

You can paint all sorts of insane maps like this if you want. How about "Number of teeth per mouth"? Split up the quintiles, notice poorer areas have slightly fewer teeth per mouth than wealthier areas, and boom! Insane-looking map. Poor areas dark red, wealthy areas bright green. The scourge of the toothless poor finally revealed for all to see. That is the problem with simply dividing data into quintiles and slapping it up on a map. Meaningless or trivial trends suddenly look meaningful.

Cost or whatever are also legit gripes about this data, but it's not even necessary to discuss them. This is just a chart lazily thrown up on a webpage designed to demonstrate a supposed trend it doesn't actually demonstrate.

[PKCorey]

No way, I could live in Bartow or Paulding. Hell, I hated the trek out to Rockdale after I moved. I don't know how I did it all those years.

I remember, I took a class in Paulding and I was shocked how something that looked so close on the map is so damn far away.

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by CCATL

Yes, not everybody will stay in the city, but I think it all relative. Are there MORE of us than in the past, and how much more? Will the influx of people who choose to stay intown enough to keep Atlanta growing and densifying? I think the answer to that is yes. A lot of millenials will move out of the city for a number of reasons - just like every other generation, we have diverse lifestyles. Some like quiet rural areas, some like city life, some like cul-de-sacs in the burbs. A lot will depend on what they can afford and how close they are to work.

I do not think it is the "lure of safe cul de sacs, good schools, and a neighborhood pool" that takes most people to the suburbs though. I think education level (and the more than likely higher pay as that increases) is a much better predictor of where someone will live - the cheap exurbs, the moderately cheaper suburbs, or the more expensive intown neighborhoods. Also, the commute - as more high paying jobs make big moves back intown, the population will likely increase. I live intown with my wife and son, and wouldn't have it any other way. I value a neighborhood grid more than a cul-de-sac, I can walk down the street to a public pool and large park, or walk to a much smaller park with a playground. I can walk to restaurants and stores, with more and more opening. The schools are good, and are getting better and better - you don't have to move to the burbs for that anymore. I work intown and bike to work or take marta, so given that, intown is a no brainer for my family and I. I have some friends who moved to the burbs because it was closer to their jobs, not because they were having kids. Actually, one of those couples is getting ready to have a kid, and wants to leave their gated suburban community with a pool to come back intown.

On top of that, I would argue that cul-de-sacs are not all that safe, if a family must get into a car for every little errand. Statistically kids and young adults are more likely to die in a car crash than be murdered by strangers breaking into your home.

[JPD]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

Plenty of well educated and well off millenials out in these parts.

Living in their parent's basements, or in their own homes?

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by JPD

Living in their parent's basements, or in their own homes?

Could they even be on these boards?

[JPD]

Originally Posted by cqholt

Could they even be on these boards?

They're all on Reddit.