Are housing prices on the decline? (Atlanta, Newnan: real estate, 2015, apartments)

[RoadLessTraveled2015]

I am afraid that the housing prices are declining now. Homes on Zillow have been knocking $5K - $14K off of the asking price. A couple of homes in my subdivision (just north of the 285) of the same model as mine are selling for less than I bought mine.

Anyone else notice this?

[kgpremed13]

I think so, which is great if you have not bought yet

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by RoadLessTraveled2015

I am afraid that the housing prices are declining now. Homes on Zillow have been knocking $5K - $14K off of the asking price. A couple of homes in my subdivision (just north of the 285) of the same model as mine are selling for less than I bought mine.

Anyone else notice this?

Homes in my area have risen sharply in the past 18 months. Even just over the past six months, we've gone from several houses available in the $400-$450k range to zero. Just a couple of years ago, they were in the mid to upper $300s.

I believe our neighborhood in particular is undervalued, so hopefully, we can hold on a little bit while everything around us goes down, and then I can sell our place and buy a bigger place.

[jeoff]

My feeling that non-new stuff both Intown and suburbs have leveled off, or gone down a little. I think new stuff Intown is still demanding a premium (but, it’s not like I am house hunting or anything, so my guess is not based off a lot of data or anything). School being back in session is probably going to suck away some of the demand—so I expect for folks who really want/need to sell to start taking reductions.

[citidata18]

On this side of town (Newnan), I'm seeing 2006 - 2007 signs. Construction in the uncompleted subdivisions that have just broken ground is grinding to a halt, while proposed projects are either being reduced in scope or cancelled altogether.

Part of it is the fact that we have to complete with the much faster growing northern suburbs for labor, and also that the cost to build these homes has exceeded what the local population can afford (given the lack of high-paying jobs).

With that being said, there's recently been an explosion of large multi-family projects (namely apartments) either proposed or under construction. These are getting a ton of NIMBY push back though on a number of fronts (residents have an irrational fear of "transients," they want to maintain a "rural feel" and not become "Atlanta" or "Clayton County," etc.). There's also been an explosion of projects specifically targeted towards seniors who are either retired but relatively wealthy or need assistance.

[bUU]

I think there are clear signs that the downward part of the cycle is either underway or coming soon. That'll feed on itself and make it a fait accomplis if it isn't the case already.

[ATLUTD]

I think things will slow a bit in-town just due to how enormous the growth has been over the past decade. You won't be doubling your house value every 3 years anymore. That said, I don't see any market forces indicating a crash. I think supply may be rising as high density units continue to become available with every passing month in new construction in Southeast Atlanta. Lots of stuff finishing construction or about to get underway as soon as you get to Memorial Drive and continue going south along Bill Kennedy.

[Soccernerd]

There haven’t been as many major headquarter relocations recently in Atlanta or its northern suburbs as there were in the past. I was just playing around on Zillow the other day and noticed that there are houses of various prices and locations that have been listed with discounts.

Our house sold in May at about 4% more than what we paid a year prior. Its Zestimate appears to be about the same as when it sold.

This is also anecdotal evidence, but has anyone noticed fewer "moving to Atlanta. Where should I live" posts? There seem to be fewer even in the last months than there had been a year or two ago.

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by citidata18

On this side of town (Newnan), I'm seeing 2006 - 2007 signs. Construction in the uncompleted subdivisions that have just broken ground is grinding to a halt, while proposed projects are either being reduced in scope or cancelled altogether.

Part of it is the fact that we have to complete with the much faster growing northern suburbs for labor, and also that the cost to build these homes has exceeded what the local population can afford (given the lack of high-paying jobs).

With that being said, there's recently been an explosion of large multi-family projects (namely apartments) either proposed or under construction. These are getting a ton of NIMBY push back though on a number of fronts (residents have an irrational fear of "transients," they want to maintain a "rural feel" and not become "Atlanta" or "Clayton County," etc.). There's also been an explosion of projects specifically targeted towards seniors who are either retired but relatively wealthy or need assistance.

2006-2007 was part of a massive US recession caused by subprime lending and other global forces. Localized price increases like have occured in Atlanta don't lead to 2007 level crashes. Those are rare events.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by Forhall

2006-2007 was part of a massive US recession caused by subprime lending and other global forces. Localized price increases like have occured in Atlanta don't lead to 2007 level crashes. Those are rare events.

My point wasn't that a repeat of the subprime mortgage crisis is taking place, rather the slowdown right now in real estate construction feels similar to what occurred in the run up to the Great Recession (albeit for different reasons).

The fact that lending standards are fundamentally different today doesn't change my real-time observations caused by the headwinds detailed in my post.

And to be clear, what I described is only what I see in my part of Metro Atlanta. It could very well be different in other areas.