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Looked at wikipedia to get the following figures. The number of aircraft produced for each model:
F-15 1,198
F-16 4,573
F-18 1,480
Moving on to the next generation of aircraft....
F-22 195
F-35 235 as of March 2017
With the retirement of the F-15, F-16, and F-18, you have to consider not only the number of aircraft for the CAS role, but the number of aircraft that can serve as air superiority fighters.
You're comparing aircraft with 30+ year production runs to aircraft with a decade at most production runs and have concerns?
Current US inventory
F15C/D 192
F15E 257
F16C/D/etc. 957
F/A18 314
F/A18E/F 342
F22 195
F35 71 current 1763 planned
True USAF AS fighters there are 192 previous generation, 195 current. USAF Fighters/Strike there are 1214 previous generation (F15E and F16), projected replacement is 1763 minus 314 to replace the F/A18 (not super) for 1,449 to the USAF. Navy have the remaining 314 to replace the F/A18.
When you look at the raw production numbers of previous generations, you have to remember not all went to the USAF, Israel, Saudi, Japan are primary users of the F15, the F22 is export restricted no foreign sales were permitted, 25 countries use the F16, Spain and Australia use the F/A18 (Oz also using the F/A-18E/F). Plus for instance the F16 went into production in 1973 and has been operational for 39 years. Operational and combat losses inflate production numbers to appear we use more than we do.
When you look at current air forces across USAF and USN there will be a net zero outcome I have no clue about the USMC. That said at red flag the F35 achieved a 15:1 kill ratio against aggressor F16's this year (take that with a grain of salt, because the F35 really does need to succeed). Even at half that kill ratio you have some significant AS capability in the F35.
I am concerned that with the retirement of many aircraft, particularly the A-10s, that there won't be adequate resources for the CAS mission.
i wouldnt worry at this point. if they retire the A10, something will take its place, probably the F16 and F/A18. these aircraft can be rebuilt, and likely new ones can be rolled off the assembly line as needed.
and i would be willing to bet that there are aircraft in the pipelines that can do that CAS mission very nicely. and lets not forget about the F117 either, it is a nice multi-role aircraft. i suspect that helicopters will increasingly take over the CAS role anyway. and that isnt necessarily bad either. choppers can pop up when least expected, create havoc among the enemy, and then disappear to minimize its vulnerabilities.
and dont forget that we still have the C47 and AC130 gun ships should they ever be needed.
i wouldnt worry at this point. if they retire the A10, something will take its place, probably the F16 and F/A18. these aircraft can be rebuilt, and likely new ones can be rolled off the assembly line as needed.
and i would be willing to bet that there are aircraft in the pipelines that can do that CAS mission very nicely. and lets not forget about the F117 either, it is a nice multi-role aircraft. i suspect that helicopters will increasingly take over the CAS role anyway. and that isnt necessarily bad either. choppers can pop up when least expected, create havoc among the enemy, and then disappear to minimize its vulnerabilities.
and dont forget that we still have the C47 and AC130 gun ships should they ever be needed.
The F117 and C47 are long gone and won't ever be coming back. The AC130 is a nighttime aircraft. It is too vulnerable to AAA and manpads during the day. It's also not very useful when you have a very fluid battle in progress.
Isn't this generation of aircraft in the tail end of their service lives?
The US Navy is still buying brand new F-18s, their strategy is a gradual shift to F-35C that includes mixed squadrons on carriers well into the 2030s. One could kind of look at it as F-35Cs replacing the older F-18As, which is why USMC (which never bought Superbugs) has such an outsized early acquisition path for F-35s.
USASF received their last F-16 about 12 years ago, so the newest Vipers should have service lives at least past 2025.
The F117 and C47 are long gone and won't ever be coming back. The AC130 is a nighttime aircraft. It is too vulnerable to AAA and manpads during the day. It's also not very useful when you have a very fluid battle in progress.
Yep, and F-117 wasn't a CAS aircraft. It had one role... to fly to a fixed location at night and drop a bomb on it. It lacked situational awareness to do much of anything aside from preplanned target sorties.
You're comparing aircraft with 30+ year production runs to aircraft with a decade at most production runs and have concerns?
Current US inventory
F15C/D 192
F15E 257
F16C/D/etc. 957
F/A18 314
F/A18E/F 342
F22 195
F35 71 current 1763 planned
True USAF AS fighters there are 192 previous generation, 195 current. USAF Fighters/Strike there are 1214 previous generation (F15E and F16), projected replacement is 1763 minus 314 to replace the F/A18 (not super) for 1,449 to the USAF. Navy have the remaining 314 to replace the F/A18.
When you look at the raw production numbers of previous generations, you have to remember not all went to the USAF, Israel, Saudi, Japan are primary users of the F15, the F22 is export restricted no foreign sales were permitted, 25 countries use the F16, Spain and Australia use the F/A18 (Oz also using the F/A-18E/F). Plus for instance the F16 went into production in 1973 and has been operational for 39 years. Operational and combat losses inflate production numbers to appear we use more than we do.
When you look at current air forces across USAF and USN there will be a net zero outcome I have no clue about the USMC. That said at red flag the F35 achieved a 15:1 kill ratio against aggressor F16's this year (take that with a grain of salt, because the F35 really does need to succeed). Even at half that kill ratio you have some significant AS capability in the F35.
Interesting numbers on the F35. So what is the huge advantage it has over the aggressor aircraft to achieve such a kill ratio? It's stealthy, OK, I get that, has VSTOL ability, is it's weapons load and targeting ability that much better than the F15/16? New generation air to air weapons that the older aircraft can't carry? Speed and nimbleness far better close in and vastly superior standoff ability? I think back to the F14 Tomcat, and it' standoff capability which was VERY impressive, with Phoenix and AMMRAM, and going down through Sparrow and Sidewinders and of course its 20 mm Vulcan for up close in a knife fight. I'm really not that up to speed on the F35, but it must have a serious loadout of weapons to select from in order to beat up on birds like F16/15s that way. Against MIGs it would be a holy terror.
That speaks well of it in an AS role, but if this is supposed to be a universal platform for all branches it would also need to be vey effective and practical for the Navy, who's primary air role is in attack missions. I sort of see that as the reason the F14 went away. It was primarily and AS aircraft, ( a role it filled extremely well) but was not as well suited as the F/FA 18 to cross over from air to ground from air to air. Still, for such a big plane she sure could dogfight. I have a soft spot for the Tomcat. One of my favorite platforms and occupied an honored space on my model shelf as a youngster. Always liked to see it fly at airshows in demos as well. It certainly wasn't suited for teams like the Blue Angels just because of shear size, but still one heluva plane.
I am quite curious as to the F35. Guess I'll have to do some Googleing and bone up a bit. Makes me wonder about the F22 as well. These performance stats you cited have me genuinely intruiged.
Interesting numbers on the F35. So what is the huge advantage it has over the aggressor aircraft to achieve such a kill ratio? It's stealthy, OK, I get that, has VSTOL ability, is it's weapons load and targeting ability that much better than the F15/16? New generation air to air weapons that the older aircraft can't carry? Speed and nimbleness far better close in and vastly superior standoff ability? I think back to the F14 Tomcat, and it' standoff capability which was VERY impressive, with Phoenix and AMMRAM, and going down through Sparrow and Sidewinders and of course its 20 mm Vulcan for up close in a knife fight. I'm really not that up to speed on the F35, but it must have a serious loadout of weapons to select from in order to beat up on birds like F16/15s that way. Against MIGs it would be a holy terror.
That speaks well of it in an AS role, but if this is supposed to be a universal platform for all branches it would also need to be vey effective and practical for the Navy, who's primary air role is in attack missions. I sort of see that as the reason the F14 went away. It was primarily and AS aircraft, ( a role it filled extremely well) but was not as well suited as the F/FA 18 to cross over from air to ground from air to air. Still, for such a big plane she sure could dogfight. I have a soft spot for the Tomcat. One of my favorite platforms and occupied an honored space on my model shelf as a youngster. Always liked to see it fly at airshows in demos as well. It certainly wasn't suited for teams like the Blue Angels just because of shear size, but still one heluva plane.
I am quite curious as to the F35. Guess I'll have to do some Googleing and bone up a bit. Makes me wonder about the F22 as well. These performance stats you cited have me genuinely intruiged.
Probably it's sensor integration, target ID, location, heading, speed can all be performed by AWACS, or a partner wing and the F35 just programs that into the missile with low/no emissions and waves it bye-bye.
Plus we're talking the F35A not the B (V/STOL) or C (CATOBAR) versions. That said it's maximum AoA is significantly higher than the F16 which gives it an advantage in close quarters across all profiles (offensive, neutral and defensive) coupled with more responsive controls at low air speed, and the Stealth will help avoid XBAND Radar. I'm not sure if the exercise included the HMDS package either. It was against the F-16 not F-15. I'm also betting it was with pilots with some serious flying hours in the F35, not like Provisional reports I've read with a 20 hour greenhorn in the F35, and a 2000 hour vet in the F16.
The F-14's stand off capability was on paper only. No AIM-54 ever hit a target outside of testing. Of three US missiles fired (and only three) two failed to ignite their engine, one attacked the ground although Iran claims better experiences with their AIM-54s. Until AMRAAM the best option for BVR was the SARH AIM-7, although propaganda made everyone worried about the Phoenix.
I would take the Phoenix numbers with a grain of salt, especially the Iranian claims. the Phoenix was a very expensive bullet so was not fired as often as it probably should have been (remember the torpedo scandal at the beginning of WWII) It was also designed for a fairly specific scenario which has never really been tested. The world has moved beyond that scenario.
Also I would hope the F-35 would have a high win ratio against the previous generation. The F-15 and F-16 did the same against the previous generation.
I'm really not that up to speed on the F35, but it must have a serious loadout of weapons to select from in order to beat up on birds like F16/15s that way. Against MIGs it would be a holy terror.
The F-35s putting up the gaudy kill ratios in Red Flag can carry four internal AMRAAMs. The software update 3F that expands the weapon loadout to full warfighting is currently undergoing testing, significant additions including SDB and AIM-9x. I think it's supposed to release later this year.
There aren't a lot of details on how exactly F-35 is getting all those kills in exercises but there has been comments by opposing pilots that they just can't find it or see it coming so either end up dead or in an extremely disadvantageous defensive position right off the bat. That Norwegian F-35 pilot who blogs has made of references to the high AoA and powerful engine causing F-35 to stick to opponents like glue in a dog fight.
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