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Some intriguing series this weeks, anyone have any predictions:
Blue Jays @ Mariner (3 games Monday to Wednesday). Jays are the second Wildcard team, Mariners are in the logjam of teams 2-3 back. Jays have been struggling, so have to think they need to win at least 2 of 3 here, and probably sweep to be safe. The Mariners are only 2 back, while the Astros (3 back) play the A's, while the Tigers (2 back) play the Twins. You have to think both the Astros & Tigers are winning at least 2 games, so that puts the pressure squarely on the Jays to keep pace.
Giants @ Dodgers (3 games Monday to Wednesday). Giants are 5 back in the division, 1 back of the Mets for the first Wildcard spot, and 1 up on the Cardinals for the 2nd Wildcard spot. Anything less than 3-0 for the Giants and we can probably but them safely to rest in the division race, as even a 2-1 series only gets them to 4 back
Red Sox @ Orioles (4 games Monday to Thursday). Orioles 3 back of the Red Sox in the division, & 1 up on the Jays for the top Wildcard spot. Another big reason why the Jays need to win at least 2 of 3 (if not more) in Seattle. They are gonna lose ground to somebody regardless, but losing loses ground to both the Red Sox (in the division) and the Orioles (in the Wildcard). Granted the last 6 games the Jays play are against the Orioles & Red Sox but they are in danger of those games becoming non factors in the race.
I'll take the Orioles over the Sox 3-1. Tuesday has a clear pitching advantage in the Orioles favor Kevin Gausman vs. Eduardo Rodriguez while Wednesday has a clear pitching advantage in Boston's favor Clay Buchholz vs. Yovani Gallardo, the other 2 are basically toss ups: (Monday: Rick Porcello vs. Dylan Bundy; Thursday: Chris Tillman vs. David Price). However, Baltimore's bullpen is a lot better than Boston's is, and Showalter won't gift the Red Sox runs like Girardi did over the weekend. I'll take Boston winning Wednesday night with the Orioles winning Monday, Tuesday & Thursday.
I'll take the Mariners over the Jays 2-1. Some interesting matchups this series. Monday: Marco Estrada vs. Taijuan Walker, Tuesday: J.A. Happ vs. Hishahi Iwakuma, Wednesday: Aaron Sanchez vs. Felix Hernandez. Estrada started off hot but recent back woes and having his luck run out on xFIP has dropped him back to the average category. Walker had 3 horrible outings before he skipped a start, worked on his mechanics with M's pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre and in his recent start pitched a 3 hit shutout at the Angels. Iwakuma has been good, not great while Happ has been one of the better pitchers in the AL. Hernandez got bombed last time out which put an end to the Mariners 8 game winning streak, so have to think he comes out better in what could be his last start at home in 2016. Sanchez is coming off having his last start skipped with a blister. I'll take the Mariners Monday & Wednesday with the Jays winning Tuesday.
And I'll take Dodgers 3-0 over the Giants. Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner tonight, Johnny Cueto vs. Rich Hill Tuesday, Matt Moore vs. Kenta Maeda Wednesday. Every time I think the Giants are turning the corner they take 5 steps backwards. After sweeping Arizona, they go home to get swept by the Padres. Then they won the first 2 against St. Louis (and got gift wrapped 6 unearned runs in the 2nd game) but then lost the 3rd game when Santiago Casilla blew yet another save and looked uninspired and disinterested in the final game of the series to finish the home stand 2-5. Maybe playing the Dodgers inspires them, but from what I've seen out of the 2 teams lately I see the Dodgers putting them out of their misery.
Every time I think the Giants are turning the corner they take 5 steps backwards.
Well illustrated over the weekend when they played their best back to back games since the AS break in taking the first two games from the Cardinals, and then promptly returned to old habits Saturday and Sunday. The Saturday game was yet another blown save defeat, an NL leading 29th of the year. Sunday they featured their other year long shortcoming, the bats going into deep freeze.
They certainly aren't providing much reason to think of them as a good club, but against LA you never know what is going to happen. Kershaw has gone three and five innings in his two return starts and I do not know how long they will let him go tonight. Bumgarner has been channeling Tim Lincecum in his last several starts, running his pitch count to 100 by the fifth inning and departing early as a result. So maybe neither of those guys will be around all that much tonight.
But as inconsistent as SF has been, even if they rise up and sweep the Dodgers, they might easily blow it all away by losing their next six in a row.
Woof! 9th inning bug bites the Giants again. They had given up only 2 hits through the first 8 innings carrying a 1 run lead to the 9th, but the Dodgers sent 4 batters to the plate in the 9th & all 4 had base hits to walk off the Giants. I think we can safely put the Giants to bed in the division. I said they needed to win all 3 to give themselves a chance. Cardinals win, but Mets lose, so Cards, Giants & Mets are all within 1 game with the Cardinals & Giants tied for the 2nd spot. On the home field side in the NL, the Nats drop their 3rd in a row and 4th in their last 6, now only have a 3 game lead on the Dodgers for the 2nd home field spot. Cubs win, so they have a 7 game lead on the Nats (8 if you include the tiebreaker since the Cubs won the season series) with 12 games to play. Nats also dropped the season series to the Dodgers, so if they finished tied, the Dodgers would get home field.
On the AL Side: Boston beats Baltimore, Jays didn't allow a hit until the 7th inning but due to 3 walks in the 8th they had Robinson Cano at the plate with 2 outs as the go-ahead run but flew out to right, and the Jays survived a 2 out home run Leonys Martin to win 3-2. Astros come back late to beat the A's 4-2 while the Tigers & Yankees had the night off. Jays & Orioles are now tied, both 4 back of Boston in the East, Tigers are 2.5 back while the Astros and Mariners are 3 back, Yankees are 4.5 back and the Royals haven't kicked the bucket quite yet but would still need an absolute miracle sitting at 5 back. On the AL home field side: Indians were off, but the Red Sox won and the Rangers walked off the Angels. The Rangers are in first by 1.5 over Cleveland and the Indians are a half game ahead of the Red Sox.
In the AL: Red Sox pounded the Orioles for the 2nd night in a row, Jays beat up the Mariners, so those 2 teams flip-flop in the Wildcard. Tigers beat Twins to move to 1.5 back. Astros survived a bases loaded 0 out situation in the 10th to win to go to 2 back, Mariners loss drops them to 3 back, Yankees beat Tampa so they are 3.5 back and Joakim Soria blew another game for the Royals who fall to 7 back. Yankees are still alive (even though they probably won't win it) because they do play Baltimore & Toronto 7 more times, but I think we can officially eliminate the Royals from this with the Mariners hanging on by a thread.
In the NL: Cardinals & Giants win, while the Mets lose a 2nd straight night to Atlanta, so we have a 3 way tie. Marlins & Pirates are ONLY 4 & 4.5 back and even in this "race" that nobody seems to want to win they are as close or closer to the 72-79 Rockies so it's just between the Cardinals, Rockies & Mets.
Last week I was writing about how the Astros were sustaining the illusion of being in the wild card race, and now, as a consequence of the Orioles dropping three straight while Houston was winning three, the Astros are now tied with Detroit at one game out for the second WC slot.
What a traffic jam it is in the AL wild card, six teams with the worst of them being 2.5 games back.
Meanwhile in the nobody seems to want it NL race, the Mets have blown their advantage gained by sweeping the Twins by turning around and getting swept by Atlanta. The Cards lost today and as I'm typing, the Dodgers just went up 4-1 over SF on a Puig home run. If that holds up, tomorrow the three NL contenders will be tied at 80-72, .526 ball. That is a pace for 85-86 wins. If the Giants stage a comeback, then they would have a one game lead for the # 1 spot with the other two tied for # 2.
NL: Cardinals lose, Mets lose, Giants are down 9-3 in the 8th so let's give them a loss. Great ending to the Braves/Mets game. Yoenis Cespedes got robbed of a 3 run walk off homer by Ender Inciarte that would have given the Mets the win and the lead in the wildcard. Instead they suffered their 3rd consecutive loss, a sweep at the hands of the Braves, and barring a monumental collapse by the Giants still in a 3 way tie in the Wildcard. Pirates win so they are only 3.5 back and if were still keeping the Yankees in the mix (which I am) then we need to keep the Pirates in the mix. They end the season in St. Louis, so they only need to make up a half game in the next week which they can do as early as Thursday when the Cardinals have the day off. Marlins lost so they remain 4 back, but once again I'm not counting them out entirely: they play 3 games with the Mets next week starting Monday, so they need to gain a game sometime in the next 4 days upcoming.
AL: Jays were down 1-0 in the 9th but tied it when Jose Bautista hit a rocket to the upper deck in LF for the 1-1 tie, but bad defense lead to a 2-1 Mariners win in 12 innings. Orioles got pounded by Boston for the 3rd night in a row (the East race is officially over). Astros survived the A's again and completed the sweep in Oakland when the A's ended the game having a runner thrown out trying to steal. Tigers game in Minnesota was postponed, they'll play 2 on Thursday, so both the Astros & Tigers are 1 back. Mariners win gets them to 2 back while Gary Sanchez just keeps doing Gary Sanchez things and the Yankees are 2.5 back. Royals lose and remain 5 back. Even though MLB Network is keeping them on the page I'm not. They don't have any games remaining against the Jays or Orioles and even if the Tigers end tomorrow with the 2nd Wildcard spot (if Baltimore loses and Tigers sweep the double header they'll lead the Orioles and Astros, if they win, by half a game) they only have 3 games remaining against Detroit (this coming weekend), so unlike the Yankees, Pirates & Marlins who are all hanging by a thread but are close enough and still play teams in front of them next week which is the easiest way to make up ground, the Royals aren't afforded that luxury
Heading into Brooklyn for both World Baseball qualifiers tomorrow, so have to put these in before the Giants/Padres game ends. Somebody can update this tomorrow though.
In the AL: Jays were off, Orioles lost to Boston again, Tigers sweep the double header from Minnesota, Astros got shut out by Ricky Nolasco, Yankees got shut out by Blake Snell, and the Mariners were off. Tigers jump the O's so are now leading the 2nd wildcard, 1 back of Toronto for the top spot. Orioles fall a half game back of the Tigers, Astros fall to 1.5 back, Mariners remain 2 back and the Yankees are 3 back. Jays & Yankees play a wraparound 4 game series in Toronto which concludes Monday, Yankees probably have to win 3 of 4. Orioles get the hapless Diamondbacks at home in their final home series of the regular season. If they don't sweep Arizona they definitely aren't making the playoffs and even if they do they may not make it (final 6 games are on the road in Toronto & New York). Mariners head to Minnesota for 3, Twins swept them in Seattle earlier in the season, that'll be a tough series for the M's. I think they'll lose 2 of 3 and we can finally eliminate them from consideration. Astros finish the series at home against the Angels, while the Tigers play host to the Royals for a 3 game series. Those are your weekend series for AL Wildcard contenders.
In the NL: Mets were down 6-4 in the 9th and got a game-tying home run from Jose Reyes, and than after going down 8-6 in the 11th they got a walkoff 3 run homer by Asdrubal Cabrera to walk off the Phillies 9-8. Cardinals are off, and as of this writing the Giants are up 2-0 after 7 and a half. Pirates lost to the Brewers and the Marlins lost to the Braves. If the Giants score holds up, they'll go into a tie with the Mets, Cardinals will fall a half game back (but even in the loss column) Marlins will fall to 4.5 back and the Pirates will fall to 5 back. If the Pads come back and win, the Mets will be in first by themselves, the Cardinals a half game back, Giants a half game back of the Cardinals, Marlins 4 back and the Pirates 4.5 back. Mets continue their series vs. the Phillies, Giants continue their series @ San Diego, Marlins continue their series vs. the Braves while the Cardinals & Pirates both get division winners that won't have much to play for: Cardinals are @ the central champion Cubs who have a magic number of 2 to clinch home field throughout the NL playoffs, while the Pirates have a home series against the Nats, who haven't clinched the division quite yet, but they have a magic number of 2 to do so. They are also 3 games up on the Dodgers for the final home field spot pending the Dodgers result Thursday, but have a couple injuries so I don't see them going all out in Pittsburgh this weekend which probably gives the Pirates an advantage over the Cardinals.
In the NL Friday: Cards were shut out by the Cubs 5-0, Mets were down early to the Phils but rebounded to win 10-5, Marlins lost their second straight to the Braves, Pirates would hand Mark Melancon his first blown save in a Nats uniform and win in extra innings, while the Giants got crushed by the Padres.
In the AL Friday: Yankees were shut out for the 2nd straight day 9-0 against the Blue Jays, Detroit beat KC 8-3 to probably put the Royals away, Baltimore got a walkoff extra innings win over the D'backs, Seattle beat Minnesota 10-1, and Astros dropped the 2nd straight to the Angels.
As for Saturday:
AL: Yankees and Blue Jays were scoreless until the 8th inning when Joey Bats deposited a 3 run homer into the left-field seats for a 3-0 win. Tyler Clippard had gotten the first 2 outs in the inning on 7 pitches before allowing a single to Donaldson and than a walk to Encarnacion before Bautista's home run stuck a fork in the Yankees. They are toast. Baltimore beat the D'backs 6-1, Royals were down to their final strike before Paulo Orlando doubled home the tying runs , and than 2 batters later Eric Hosmer would get the game-winning 3 run homer to stun the Detroit crowd, Twins beat the Mariners 3-2, and the Astros were up 4-1 to start the 8th but the Angels scored 9 unanswered runs to end the game: 4 in the 8th and 5 in the 9th to possibly give the Astros the death blow. Jays are first 1.5 up on the Orioles who took the lead back from the Tigers. Tigers are 0.5 back of the O's, Mariners are 2.5 back, Astros 3 back, Yankees 4.5 back, Royals 6. I'm saying goodbye to the Yankees. I think this is shaping up to be a 3 team race between the Jays, Orioles & Tigers. Mariners have been way to inconsistent this year to finish with a stretch of 6-2, 7-1 which they'll need if they want to tie the Jays/Tigers/Orioles. Astros, outside of a 2 month stretch from mid May to late July have been a sub .500 team the other 110 games, they play 1 less game than the Mariners and also have 1 extra loss than the Mariners do, which obviously doesn't help them. The Astros/Mariners play each other Monday-Wednesday next week, so if 1 team can sweep I'll keep that team in the mix, but as of now it doesn't look good for either.
Over in the senior circuit: Cards got a resounding win over the Cubs 10-4, Mets were down 10-0 at one point with most of the regulars pulled from the game, but had the tying run at the plate in the 8th down 10-7, and the winning run at the plate in the 9th down 10-8 but couldn't go much further. Giants were leading 6-1 with Bumgarner on the mound, Padres forced extra innings, but the Giants got 3 in the 10th to win, while the Pirates had an absolute disaster of a 4th inning which will go on the blooper reels: 3 errors, 1 wild pitch and 3 unearned runs in a 6-1 loss to the Nats (who officially clinched the East. Rangers officially clinched the West last night and the Dodgers can clinch the NL West with a win OR Giants loss Sunday as they have a magic number of 1). Indians can possibly clinch on Sunday (they need a win AND Tigers loss), while the Red Sox have a magic number of 3, so after Sunday's play 5 of the 6 divisions can possibly be officially decided even though we already know who the winners will be in all 6. Marlins lose yet again to the Braves. Mets & Giants are tied in the penthouse, Cardinals sitting 0.5 game back, Pirates 4.5 back, Marlins 5 back. Thanks for playing this year Pirates & Marlins, but both of you are done.
The Yankees are about as close to being eliminated as a team can be without actually being eliminated yet.
The Orioles currently own the second wild card spot with 85 wins, the Yankees have won 79, so the most that they can win is 86. NY has to hope that Baltimore gets swept by Toronto, and then loses its last three to NY. They would also need Detroit to go 2-5 in their last seven games, and need Seattle and Houston to go 3-4 or worse. Seattle and Houston have three games left with each other, so one of them is bound to win at least two games.
I would not know how to compute the odds of all the things NY needs to have happen, happening, but I'm guessing it would be some staggering figure.
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Wednesday recap
