Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Grandstander: The Yankees are done. I figured they'd need to finish 7-0, Baltimore would have to finish 0-6 (Yankees play 1 extra game), Detroit finish 2-5, Astros finish 2-4 and Mariners finish 3-4. That would leave: Yankees 86-76, Baltimore 85-77, Detroit 85-77, Astros 84-78, Mariners 85-77. I'm guessing there's about a 1 in a 50 million chance of that happening. Tying with 1 or more of those teams I'd put the odds at about 1 in 3 million. And as you said the Mariners & Astros play each other so 1 team is going to finish with at least 84 wins by the end of play Monday and both teams finish their season with punchless opponents, though the A's (finish with 4 @ Seattle) are more punchless than the Angels are (finish up with 3 at home vs. the Astros). I could easily see Detroit finishing 2-5 or worse (Indians for 4 games and @ Braves for 3 who are actually playing respectable ball) but I doubt the Astros finish 2-4, or Mariners finish 3-4. Likewise, the Yankees would have to get through 1 more game in Toronto, 3 against the Red Sox who still haven't officially clinched the division, and you know they would love to do that in the Bronx, not to mention still shooting for home field throughout the AL playoffs, and than the Orioles for the final 3 games who may or may not still be competing to get in the Wildcard. I'd put the odds of the Yankees finishing that stretch 7-0 at about 1 in 10 million.
G I'd put the odds of the Yankees finishing that stretch 7-0 at about 1 in 10 million.
I wouldn't think it is that bad, but even if they do, they need many other favorable outcomes in games involving other teams, and that is what makes it so highly improbable.
As I'm typing it is the bottom of the 8th at Wrigley with the Cubs leading St. Louis 3-1. The Cards are three Adrolis Chapman outs away from losing and if they do, they remain a half game behind SF for the second wild card spot. This despite the Giants losing yet again to the Padres.
It is really astonishing that SF is still in play. Since the AS break, the worst record in MLB belongs to the Twins who have gone 24-43, .358 ball. The next worst record is San Francisco's, 25-40, .385 ball. After having the best record in MLB in the first half, for the last two and a half months, the Giants have been the worst team in the NL.
The Cardinals by sharp contrast has been sailing smooth seas of consistent mediocrity. In the first half they went 46-42, .522 ball. They have just lost to the Cubs, so since the break they have been 35-32, or ....wait for it, .522 ball.
Over in the NL: Cardinals lose to the Cubs, Giants lose to the Padres, while the Mets put two touchdowns and a field goal on the board in a 17-0 rout of the Phillies. Mets go 1 up on the Giants who are a half game back of the Cards. Mets open a 3 game series in Miami Monday which will be an emotional series, Giants are off Monday, while the Cards will make up that half game Monday when they open a 4 game home series against the Reds. Also the Dodgers officially clinched the West. In Vin's final home game, it was only fitting, and the only way I would want them to win the division. On the homefield side the Cubs have clinched home field throughout the NL playoffs, while the Nats are 1.5 up on the Dodgers for the other home spot in the NLDS (but 2 in the loss column which is important). Nats make up the extra game Monday while the Dodgers have Monday off.
AL: Toronto blows a 9th inning lead, than Betances gives it right back in the bottom half as the Jays walk off the Yankees. Tigers lose to the Royals, Orioles complete the sweep of the D'Backs, Mariners beat the Twins and the Astros finally beat the Angels this week. Jays stay 1.5 up on the Orioles who go 1.5 up on the Tigers, Mariners are 2.5 back and the Astros stay 3 back. Jays finish the wraparound series with the Yankees Monday, Orioles have the day off before opening a series in Toronto Tuesday, Tigers play the Indians for 4 games, and the Astros and Mariners start an important 3 game series in Houston Monday. Unless 1 team can sweep I think they are both done, but whoever loses this series is definitely done! On the home field side, Texas & Boston are tied for the top spot, with Cleveland 1.5 back (but only 1 in the loss column). Texas has Thursday off, Boston has Monday off, while the Indians play a full 7 game slate to make up the extra game on the Rangers & Red Sox. Indians can win the Central by winning just 1 of these next 4 games in Detroit, while Boston will not be able to wrap the East as they have a magic number of 2, and they are off.
The Yankees remain alive by having all go as it must on the first day. They defeated the Blue Jays, the Tigers lost, and the Mariners/Astros game has the same impact on them regardless of which team wins.
The Giants deployed their best weapon tonight, they didn't play. This allowed them to creep a half game closer to the Mets who fell to the Marlins, and take a full game lead over St. Louis which really fell apart tonight, giving up 22 hits and 15 runs to the Reds while getting just six hits and two runs for themselves.
The Yankees remain alive by having all go as it must on the first day. They defeated the Blue Jays, the Tigers lost, and the Mariners/Astros game has the same impact on them regardless of which team wins.
The Giants deployed their best weapon tonight, they didn't play. This allowed them to creep a half game closer to the Mets who fell to the Marlins, and take a full game lead over St. Louis which really fell apart tonight, giving up 22 hits and 15 runs to the Reds while getting just six hits and two runs for themselves.
Cano ended up homering in the 11th to give the Mariners the win. Tigers & M's are tied 2 back, Astros 3.5 back, and Yankees 5 & Royals 6 who officially aren't eliminated yet but unofficial they are done except the final math. I think the only thing left to decide in the AL is whether the Wildcard game on Tuesday takes place in Baltimore or Toronto. The Orioles just need to not get SWEPT in these next 2 series. Even if they finish 2-4 I think they still have it because the Tigers & Mariners would need to finish 4-2 which I don't see happening. As I said last night I would keep the Astros/Mariners winner if it was a sweep in the mix, but I'm not confident in the Mariners winning the next 2 while I think the Tigers would be lucky to finish 2-4 themselves. Assuming an Orioles 2-4 finish the Astros would have to finish 5-0 to tie them, that's not happening either. As for the NL: Unless the Cardinals can petition MLB to change their final 6 games to play @ Cincinnati and @ Pittsburgh I think the Cardinals are done. I think the Reds will take the next 2 out of 3, while the Pirates win 2 of 3, which means the Giants only have to finish 2-4 to avoid the tiebreaker. They aren't THAT terrible are they??
Today didn't do much to clarify matters. Twelve was tonight's magic number as the three NL contenders all mashed their opponents, Mets 12-1 over Miami, Cards 12-5 over the Reds and the Giants beat Colorado 12- 3.
In the AL no one clinched anything. Big Papi struck out with two on and two out in the 9th to give NY a win, Toronto bested the Orioles and now is two games up in the # 1 wild card while Baltimore lost ground to Detroit who won and is one game behind them. Seattle and Houston have traded wins in their first two games, so they are a wash and remain two and two and a half games back. The Yankees remain alive four games back, but an Oriole win coupled with a NY loss eliminates them.
The Royals could still tie for the second wild card, but a single loss eliminates them, or a single Baltimore win.
In a rarity for the NL all 3 teams actually won on the same day for the first time since probably before the All Star Break! The big hit in the Cardinals game came from Cards rookie SS Aledmys Diaz. After spending the previous 2 days in Miami grieving the tragic loss of his childhood friend Jose Fernandez, he returned to the team today, and in his second at bat hit his first career grand slam, which turned what was than a 2-1 Reds lead into a 5-2 Cardinals lead and an eventual 12-5 win that left them 1 back of the Giants (who beat the Rockies), and the Mets who beat the Marlins. So the status quo remains the same: Mets 0.5 up on the Giants who are 1 up on the Cardinals. Pirates & Marlins were officially eliminated with losses Tuesday.
In the AL: Toronto beat up Kevin Gausman and the Orioles 5-1, while the Astros came back to beat the Mariners 8-4 aided by a big Ketel Marte error which lead to 4 unanswered runs as part of a 6 run inning in the 2 biggest series of the week. Tiger romped over the AAA Indians, playing mostly reserves the day after clinching their first division title since 2007, while the Yankees and Royals stay mathematically alive by pulling off wins: in the Royals case an extra inning walk off sac fly. The Jays go to 2 up on the Orioles for the top Wildcard spot and I believe have a magic number of 3 to clinch 1 of the 2 Wildcard spots....of course they are still mathematically alive for the division. If they were to win the final 5, and the Red Sox lose their final 5 (including 3 head to head) they would play a 1 game playoff to decide the division winner, with the winner taking the division and the loser hosting the Wildcard game. Tigers are 1 back of the Orioles, Mariners stay 2 back, Astros are back up to 2.5 back, and the Yankees and Royals are each hanging on by a thread: Yankees 4 back, Royals 5 back.
Come on 7express, the Royals are still in this! They just can't lose any games and all the other teams ahead of them needs to lose their remaining games and they are in!
On a serious note. While the Royals won't make the playoffs, they certainly could have. Even with all their injuries this year, the one thing that might have kept them out of the playoffs is bringing back Soria. He blew like 10-12 games for the Royals this year.
The Orioles beat the Blue Jays tonight, which means Boston clinched the division. The Red Sox were leading 3-0 but NY came up with 5 runs, the last four coming on a Teixeira grand slam with two out.
So...NY is still in it, although the best they can hope for now is to tie for the second wild card spot. The Tigers won a rain shortened game and they are 1.5 games behind the Orioles for the second spot, and the Mariners are behind them another half game. Houston is 3.5 out of the second spot and the best they can hope for is a tie. Kansas City has been eliminated, sorry kcmo.
In the NL the Mets topped the Marlins. St. Louis lost to the Reds 2-1 despite getting a runner on third with one out in the 8th, and a leadoff triple to open their 9th.
Giants and Rockies are scoreless in the third. If SF wins they are a game behind the Mets for the first wild card, and two games ahead of St. Louis for the second spot. If they lose they are two behind NY and one ahead of the Cardinals.
Oh, well. Kansas City had a nice run the last few years, but they couldn't keep it going. That division's balance has changed. My Astros, meanwhile, will likely be eliminated from Wild Card contention by Friday night. I still have questions about Houston's pitching, particularly the starting, and that's something will need to be examined in the offseason.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Sunday recap
