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Texas finally got a decent performance from a starter, Mike Minor going six innings of 1 hit shutout ball. The A's poked a couple of late runs off the relievers, but it wasn't enough and the final was 4-2. The A's managed 8 base runners, and erased two of them on double plays.
The Astros beat Seattle 10-7 so the A's slide a game back, but retain their 4.5 game lead over the Mariners for the wild card.
Last edited by Grandstander; 08-22-2018 at 05:25 PM..
For the second day in a row there was no alteration in the standings as all three of the only AL teams staging a race, won. The A's have taken the last two from the Twins, the Astros two from the Angels and the Mariners two over the Diamondbacks. The A's remain 1.5 behind Houston and four games ahead of Seattle.
Oakland has won all four of Mike Fiers' starts since he came over from Detroit. Today it was one run in 5 and two thirds, but it took him 100 pitches to get there. Four relievers closed it out.
Matt Chapman hit home runs # 19 and 20 as the A's won the game 6-2, and the series from the Twins 3 games to 1. The Mariners lost to the Diamondbacks and fall five games behind the A's for the wild card. The Astros topped the Angels, so they retain their 1.5 game division lead.
How's this? Since the A's began their surge in mid June, they have played in 20 series. Their record in those series is 18-1-1. That last was a split two game series against the Dodgers. Among the A's victims in this streak are the Indians and the Astros, both of whom dropped two series to Oakland.
Matt Chapman has now surged to 4th in the AL in WAR at 7.2. (Behind Betts 8.4, Trout 8.0, and Jose Ramirez 7.6)
Last edited by Grandstander; 08-26-2018 at 05:36 PM..
2 of 3 against the Rangers, and after losing the opening game on Thursday they preceded to win the final 3 games against the Twins to win 3 out of 4 in that series. 3 games in Houston begin on Monday night, the final time this year (at least in the regular season) the A's will see the Astros, and then they'll head home for 4 games against the Mariners. Currently 5 games up on the Mariners they've given themselves some breathing room, and really as long as they don't lose the series they'll retain a pretty good lead on the Mariners. Of course while the A's are in Houston, the Mariners get to beat up on the NL worst Padres, so by the time the series starts it could only be 2.5 games, so in that case, probably shoot for a series win.
Among the reasons for the A's success this season is that they have rebuilt four fifths of the rotation on the fly, and what had been an early weakness, has lately been a tremendous strength.
The team opened the year with this rotation:
Graveman
Manaea
Mengden
Gossett
Triggs
Only Manaea shined. The current rotation:
Manaea
Anderson
Fiero
Jackson
Cahill
The restructuring has worked. The A's team ERA by months:
April 4.42
May 3.54
June 4.07
July 3.88
August 2.57
The A's and Astros are back where they started before the series began. Houston drubbed the A's 11-4 Monday night, Oakland won a tight 4-3 game tonight. Matt Olsen swatted a three run homer to supply most of the A's offense. Houston came back to tie it in the fifth. Houston probably would have scored in the bottom of the 8th, but Ramon Laureano, who keeps making pivotal contributions, gunned down Springer trying to go from first to third on a single.
In the top of that inning, Steven Piscotty made a ball vanish. He hit a Dave Kingmanish flyball which disappeared into the beams supporting the roof, and never came down. No one knew where it went, whether it was in foul or fair territory, above the field or beyond the fence. It was ruled a foul.
Laureano drew a four pitch walk in the ninth, and came around to score the go ahead run on Martini's double. Blake Trienen had an easy 1-2-3 9th and that was it.
Earlier Laureano stole second and slid so hard that he knocked the bag from its mooring.
Oakland lost a really hard fought game to Houston this afternoon. The Astros jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first, the A's took the lead 3-2 in the third, Houston took the lead back in the 4th, 4-3, the A's tied in the 7th on a bases loaded hbp. Then Tyler White ended it with a walk off bomb with one out in the 9th.
The A's leave town 2.5 games behind for the division, but the Mariners managed to lose today to the lowly Padres, so they remain 5.5 games behind for the second wild card spot.
Last head-to-head with Houston, so that sucks too as the head-to-heads are the easiest way to make up games (no kidding Einstein!!)
I stand by what I said on Monday: as long as they don't LOSE the series they'll be no worse than remaining 5.5 games up on the Mariners and we'll be in September with less than a month of games left. Any more than 2 wins is just icing on top. At this rate, with no head-to-heads left I think the division is out. Granted 2.5 games isn't really a lot even with a month left, but without the head-to-heads its difficult. Also, the Astros seems to be getting back to full health and seemed to have bounced out of their funk, so difficult to see them losing 3 games to the Astros. Likewise, unless they sweep the Yankees next week, I think they are pretty much playing the WC game on the road.
Last head-to-head with Houston, so that sucks too as the head-to-heads are the easiest way to make up games (no kidding Einstein!!)
I stand by what I said on Monday: as long as they don't LOSE the series they'll be no worse than remaining 5.5 games up on the Mariners and we'll be in September with less than a month of games left. Any more than 2 wins is just icing on top. At this rate, with no head-to-heads left I think the division is out. Granted 2.5 games isn't really a lot even with a month left, but without the head-to-heads its difficult. Also, the Astros seems to be getting back to full health and seemed to have bounced out of their funk, so difficult to see them losing 3 games to the Astros. Likewise, unless they sweep the Yankees next week, I think they are pretty much playing the WC game on the road.
Baseball Prospectus has the Astros with a 99.7% chance of reaching the post season, Oakland with a 94.7% chance, and the Mariners are down to 5%. (BP calculates their odds by running simulations from each day forward. Out of a ten thousand simulation run, Seattle would have won 500 times and not made it 9500 times.)
FanGraphs, which also relies on simulations, has Houston projected to win 100 games, the A's to win 95 and the Mariners to win 90. Houston is given a 95.7 % chance of the division, the A's just a 4.6 % chance. The A's are given an 85 % chance of winning the wild card, Seattle 15 %.
Even though Houston's division lead is just 2.5 games, the reason they project to winning it at a 95 % rate is that FanGraphs simulations are based on the talent on the rosters rather than on a team's actual w/l record. In theory Houston should be far ahead of the pack, but their cruddy luck in one run games has kept them suppressed.
Houstonian here... I can think of nearly a dozen games where the Astros had a lead in the 8th or 9th and lost. Even blew an 8-3 lead in the 9th against Cleveland. But that is not "cruddy luck", that is lack of a lights-out closer. If they had one, they would be fighting the Red Sox for the best record. They have some good arms in the bullpen just no telling what you will get on any given night. That, and their feast-or-famine hitting are my biggest post-season concerns. Been shut out a few too many times.
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