California Economy - When will it turn around? (Newark: sales, apartment)

[Gottasay]

So sad that most of the respondents think pot is the miracle answer. Duh -- people will find ways around that (like growing it themselves). Think global -- structure the economy to compete against China, India, Brazil, etc. Remove impediments to exports and generating business. Give people good reason to buy California-made goods again! Show illegals the door. Think not what your government can do for you but what you can do for your state.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Gottasay

Think global -- structure the economy to compete against China, India, Brazil, etc.
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Give people good reason to buy California-made goods again!

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Think not what your government can do for you but what you can do for your state.

You mean, Californians should work for $0.50/hour?

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Illegals make some things in California affordable to outsiders. Imagine if Dole paid $15-$45/hr to (unionized) Americans to pick oranges and strawberries. Think Homer in Iowa would buy them?


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Nope. It's what the government can do for me; otherwise it's fired.

YouTube - North Korea Rally

[majoun]

Originally Posted by FurnitureMan

Gambling is somewhat legalized. It's called Indian Casinos. I do not think you want to legalize casinos in metro areas in a recession. It is a recipe for increased crime.

A lack of jobs being created is the surest recipe for increased crime especially increased property crime. If casinos create more jobs than there will be an offset.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Gottasay

So sad that most of the respondents think pot is the miracle answer. Duh -- people will find ways around that (like growing it themselves).

Heard of comparative advantage? California does have a comparative advantage in pot growing. Not everyone has the space or the time to grow it themselves.

Even if other states legalized, the only other states with marijuana cultivation cultures as sophisticated as those of California would be Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington. We'd still have a large share of the market because the expertise is here. And if other states don't, then we'd have something to offer that no other state would.

I'd also suggest legalizing gambling and prostitution (would that totally anger Nevada or what? NV interests are the main reason why gambling and prostitution have remained illegal in CA) and overturning Prop 8.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by majoun

Not everyone has the space or the time to grow it themselves.

Even if other states legalized, the only other states with marijuana cultivation cultures as sophisticated as those of California would be Oregon, Hawaii, and Washington. We'd still have a large share of the market because the expertise is here.

Sounds like California would have the advantage of growing for some of the same reasons it has for growing fruits and vegetables and grains and all it's other agriculture (which it leads the US in just about every category).

As far as expertise though, how much expertise (people) does it really take? I would think the land quality and climate would be the biggest requirements (California's advantage). After that it seems that all you would need is one or two experts and 3000 low skilled laborers - just like any other crop.

[SandyCo]

The housing bubble was huge, and it's going to take a long time to continue unwinding from that, and then somehow recover from it. How is that going to happen? I don't know. So much manufacturing has left the state, and how many major corporations actually still have their headquarters in California? Not many. The continuing state budget woes are going to make everything twice as worse and California is going to be an unappealing prospect for a few years.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by SandyCo

The housing bubble was huge, and it's going to take a long time to continue unwinding from that, and then somehow recover from it. How is that going to happen? I don't know. So much manufacturing has left the state, and how many major corporations actually still have their headquarters in California? Not many.

More than you think but they're all in the Bay Area.

Re: SoCal, there are very few who still have their HQ's there.

[FurnitureMan]

The comparative advantage for california may be agriculture, but it is not low tech manufacturing. Also, gambling is dependent on consumer's disposable income for their revenue. I can't buy into the thoery that gambling will create more jobs than it will do harm, if casinos are built in metro areas.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Charles

Sounds like California would have the advantage of growing for some of the same reasons it has for growing fruits and vegetables and grains and all it's other agriculture (which it leads the US in just about every category).

As far as expertise though, how much expertise (people) does it really take? I would think the land quality and climate would be the biggest requirements (California's advantage). After that it seems that all you would need is one or two experts and 3000 low skilled laborers - just like any other crop.

The number of experts in marijuana cultivation in CA is VERY high. Enough to spread cultivation throughout the state even more so than already.

Not to mention considerable jobs would be created as a result of catering to the needs of growers, which in turn would produce more jobs.

The Emerald Triangle counties would go from being extremely economically depressed to being amongst the most prosperous parts of the state. But the cultivation would be found all over - just as CA's wine industry is centered in Napa and Sonoma Counties but there are vineyards throughout the state, as far north as the northern border and as far south as Temecula.

No doubt the nay-sayers will talk of the possibility of a "pot bubble" - but smoking weed is just too ingrained in CA to go away. Also, there would be legal impediments to cheap imports, like the Single Convention Treaty which prohibits exports of marijuana across international borders (and which has falsely been cited as prohibiting legalization per se but which does not apply to domestic production and consumption - I know, I've read it)

[Quatermass]

Originally Posted by majoun

A Constitutional Convention which would get rid of said structural problems is not an unrealistic possibility at all. In fact I'd say it's quite likely. Even before it formally went into effect it would help perceptions which matter a lot when it comes to business investment.

And legalizing pot would definitely help, unfortunately the state legislature is too chicken **** to consider the possibility. However if the meltdown continues as is likely this could have a chance of going through (as would legalizing prostitution and gambling)

Not too ago I'd have said there was no chance of a constitutional convention, but after the tax increase in February I noticed talk about it beginning to take a different, more serious tenor. If things get bad enough anything could become possible.

That said, I'm not confident that a constitutional convention wouldn't make things worse, because Numero Uno on the agenda would be the repeal of the two-thirds rule for tax increases. Making it easier for Sacramento to raise taxes would plug future budget holes in the very short term; in the long term it will cause the outward stream of people and capital to become a flood.