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Those cities I posted are far away from the GTA and are out in the country. So it not like it close to the GTA like 15 minute drive.
Those cities have not double in population in the past 20 years but only modest growth.
A community does not have to double in population for sharp uptick in prices. Modest growth in a high demand region with insufficient supply can trigger a sharp increase in prices. Real estate is very price inelastic, that is a sharp increase in price will not result in a sharp decrease in demand. As for distance to Toronto, 1) how are you confident that residents in those areas are strictly commuting to Toronto and 2) even if they are, what makes you think that a long commute will deter individuals from buying homes are away from a city center. Sure there are opportunity costs associated with long commutes but people still do them after much deliberation. My home city of Boston, Massachusetts has people commuting for more than an hour, even from neighboring states like New Hampshire and Rhode Island. The GTA probably has commuters from as far away as Niagara Falls and Kingston. That's not a shock anymore these days.
A community does not have to double in population for sharp uptick in prices. Modest growth in a high demand region with insufficient supply can trigger a sharp increase in prices. Real estate is very price inelastic, that is a sharp increase in price will not result in a sharp decrease in demand. As for distance to Toronto, 1) how are you confident that residents in those areas are strictly commuting to Toronto and 2) even if they are, what makes you think that a long commute will deter individuals from buying homes are away from a city center. Sure there are opportunity costs associated with long commutes but people still do them after much deliberation. My home city of Boston, Massachusetts has people commuting for more than an hour, even from neighboring states like New Hampshire and Rhode Island. The GTA probably has commuters from as far away as Niagara Falls and Kingston. That's not a shock anymore these days.
If you look at Niagara Falls in 1981 they had populations of 70,960 people and now population of 2021 a population of 94,415
In St. Catharines in 1971 population 109,722 now 2021 population 136,803.
Well in Kitchener 1971 population of 111,805 and now 2021 population of 256,855.
It is clear some one in city hall or government is limiting the construction as they should have way way way and and I mean way way way way more growth. If it was US cities those cities would have well over million people being close to the GTA.
This is not construction that cannot keep up with growth this is pathetic growth that the city hall or government is clearly limiting growth.
He said farm land is all around Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton and Winnipeg and probably Calgary to, so well unless the farm land is unique to Canada unlike the US or little areas in Canada for farm land, I’m shocked how it not problem in the US as in he US they just build out. In the US the Midwest and south as lots of farm land.
Unless the US has just more farm land than Canada it not big problem there will as Canada has little farm land available in the country.
Hopefully some one from south or Midwest in the US can comment here on the farm land there or the farm land is not as prime there?
I have never paid attention to farmland in the US versus here. What I said was true of farmland everywhere. The bigger a sprawl you have ANYWHERE, the less of a non renewable resource you have. Of course there is prime farmland in the US! If city planners in the US have allowed urban sprawl everywhere, that would not change this fact. If a city is sitting on a desert, well, that's not farmland.
If you look at Niagara Falls in 1981 they had populations of 70,960 people and now population of 2021 a population of 94,415
In St. Catharines in 1971 population 109,722 now 2021 population 136,803.
Well in Kitchener 1971 population of 111,805 and now 2021 population of 256,855.
It is clear some one in city hall or government is limiting the construction as they should have way way way and and I mean way way way way more growth. If it was US cities those cities would have well over million people being close to the GTA.
This is not construction that cannot keep up with growth this is pathetic growth that the city hall or government is clearly limiting growth.
No doubt city planners are limiting growth. Hopefully they are growing cities wisely.
I remember reading an article from recently that said the population of the GTA is expected to more than double this decade. But the attitude of the boomers that run our city governments across the province is “F off, we’re full!” bringing development to a bottleneck. The Greenbelt is archaic in its current form and while I detest the Ford government and the way they handled this issue, I don’t care if a bunch of nosy people are complaining they now have to drive through subdivisions instead of green space on their way to the city, the growth is coming whether we like it or not and we should accommodate it. While we’re at it, we should build that Pickering airport that’s been promised for the last 50 years as well.
Bubble99, I agree with you completely growth is also being restricted in these outlier cities, but I think the biggest cause of the high prices there is the combination of retirees, work from home employees and international students that have had a huge influx to these areas since the pandemic was not anticipated by city planners at all and is causing the runaway effect of bidding wars and whatnot which have made prices go out of control. It’s not just the cities either, small rural areas over an hour from any city are still over $500-$600k minimum. Arguably the cheapest areas are actually in the cities themselves in the more run down areas. Gone are the “move further out and commute to save money” days.
I disagree with the farmland point, and I’m a strong environmental advocate and generally liberal leaning. Most cities don’t have a green belt. What makes Toronto so special? It’s all about preserving the “illusion” of nature/countryside feeling for the millionaires who own acreages there. I’d imagine much of “farming”done in these areas near Toronto are rich retired hobbyists doing a little bit of gardening for a tax write off. If you’re a 70 year old farmer, you’re kids are grown up and aren’t taking it over the farm ends with you. The land costs $18 million because it’s sitting 5 minutes east of Scarborough. No one is buying that to run a farming operation. I think the whole argument doesn’t add up.
Do you want everyone to have 5 acres as their lot? Serious question.
At one point, no doubt, anyone could have some small acreage such as I have now until city planners saw where that was leading. At least that is how it was here. 30 odd years ago I think you could still do that here but now there is no way Agriculture Manitoba (what I'm familiar with) is going to let anyone carve out a random 5 acre plot in the middle of nowhere.
They do allow developments and the village I grew up in is probably 3 times the size since I moved back here. But the municipality grows villages from the inside out, and also takes into consideration not only the specific village but the other villages in the municipality before they allow a development.
That's what makes small acerages valuable - the fact that there are limited numbers of them and many if not most of those are due to farmers like myself who reached retirement age and sold the farming portion of their land to other farmers.
When we bought our farm 30 odd years ago, the price of farms and land had stagnated for many years. The farm we bought had been on the market for 10 years. You couldn't give it away. The selling price wasn't divided by acres but came as a whole farm package. However my accountant did some investigating for the purpose of capital gains and estimates that the land itself was worth about $500 an acre back then. It made my eyes bug out at how much it turned out to be worth today and the area where my land sits is not bad but not top quality agricultural land. When I asked farmers why it was worth so much they said "Because they're not making more land, are they?" And it was particularly valuable to neighbouring farmers because of the prices of gas and diesel. If they buy land 30 or more kilometers away, they use a valuable portion of their time driving around to various fields.
People moved from rural areas to the city, not vice versa. No one wanted a farming life because it is definitely not your thing if you like weekends and holidays.
Secondly wrt tax write-offs, unless your primary occupation is farming, you can't write off pseudo farming expenses. That's because years before people did exactly what you suggested - "farms" were a tax write-off for people who's real profession was elsewhere.
Farming is very expensive and high-risk and some people who have farmed all their lives still have a side job, and/or their wives worked off the farm in order to make ends meet.
There could be a number of reasons growth of a city is restricted. For example, City of Winnipeg water treatment facilities were badly in need of upgrades.
Quote:
The upgrades were originally envisioned by the provincial Clean Environment Commission in 2003 and were initially expected to be completed early in the 2010s.
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All three levels of government agreed in 2021 to share the $474 million cost of this (FIRST) phase of the work, which is already underway and is expected to wrap up by 2027.
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The city has been waiting for provincial and federal funding for upgrades to the plant for years
The total cost of upgrades to the largest of Winnipeg's sewage treatment plants has risen to $2.2 billion and will likely increase further (when design for final phase is complete)
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So far, there is no funding available for most of the work and no timeline for completing it.
Do you want everyone to have 5 acres as their lot? Serious question.
At one point, no doubt, anyone could have some small acreage such as I have now until city planners saw where that was leading. At least that is how it was here. 30 odd years ago I think you could still do that here but now there is no way Agriculture Manitoba (what I'm familiar with) is going to let anyone carve out a random 5 acre plot in the middle of nowhere.
They do allow developments and the village I grew up in is probably 3 times the size since I moved back here. But the municipality grows villages from the inside out, and also takes into consideration not only the specific village but the other villages in the municipality before they allow a development.
That's what makes small acerages valuable - the fact that there are limited numbers of them and many if not most of those are due to farmers like myself who reached retirement age and sold the farming portion of their land to other farmers.
When we bought our farm 30 odd years ago, the price of farms and land had stagnated for many years. The farm we bought had been on the market for 10 years. You couldn't give it away. The selling price wasn't divided by acres but came as a whole farm package. However my accountant did some investigating for the purpose of capital gains and estimates that the land itself was worth about $500 an acre back then. It made my eyes bug out at how much it turned out to be worth today and the area where my land sits is not bad but not top quality agricultural land. When I asked farmers why it was worth so much they said "Because they're not making more land, are they?" And it was particularly valuable to neighbouring farmers because of the prices of gas and diesel. If they buy land 30 or more kilometers away, they use a valuable portion of their time driving around to various fields.
People moved from rural areas to the city, not vice versa. No one wanted a farming life because it is definitely not your thing if you like weekends and holidays.
Secondly wrt tax write-offs, unless your primary occupation is farming, you can't write off pseudo farming expenses. That's because years before people did exactly what you suggested - "farms" were a tax write-off for people who's real profession was elsewhere.
Farming is very expensive and high-risk and some people who have farmed all their lives still have a side job, and/or their wives worked off the farm in order to make ends meet.
The situation sounds very different in Manitoba. I live close to the greenbelt in Ontario and the land is simply too expensive now for me to believe there’s going to be any commercial farming in the future. There’s a lot of retired Torontonians or people who own businesses in the city who have moved into areas like Uxbridge, Stouffville, King City, Caledon, etc who live on giant acreages where you see mowed grass as far as the eyes can see. This is the “prime farmland” I think development should be allowed. The only livestock these people are keeping are the odd horse. The only crops being grown are maybe tomatoes in their hobby gardens.
I have tremendous respect for farmers and I don’t support taking anyone’s land away. I am advocating for these plots of land to be allowed to be developed if the landowner chooses, that’s all. I think there’s plenty of farmland that’s at a pricepoint further out where it’s realistic for agricultural business, but it’s not on the edges of the greenbelt bordering Toronto. I think we can protect important wetlands and forests without having such restrictive policy as there is now. The best comparison for these areas for Americans or others from outside Southern Ontario would probably be Westchester or the Hamptons in New York rather than the farming communities being portrayed.
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