Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
"Can anyone see the pressure the GFS has at 126? It appears to be close to 960mb or so, Its extreme. I still like the extreme solution and have little doubt that it plays out for someone. We have historic blocking ,a split flow, an extreme PNA ridge at just the right time, the incredibly deep Newfoundland vortex , and it pulls away at precisely the right time (on euro), so theres no reason why we shouldn't have an extreme event. Its literally how they're made. Normally this setup occurs in New England though, not the Southeast, so thats why everyone has questions. Its still uncertain exactly wher the phase occurs and that is the decider on where the storm goes, but I have very little doubt really on this storm getting into record deep territory , as its about the perfect storm setup. We could end up with a 990 or less storm on the Georgia coast, which to me is pretty iincredible, and watch it go from that to 975 when its aproaching Wilmington or the Outer Banks, which would be a sight to behold....with blizzard conditions pretty far inland.
As long as the northern stream is diving due south like the Euro (and now the GFS) in the lower Miss. Valley then our southern system should begin to really amplify and quite honestly, the sky's the limit on what happens to its pressure. It could be March 1993, but further east for all practical purposes. "
I don't disagree w/this guy that this weekend we will have a deep deep storm on our hands in the Southeast. The question is the exact track and how much moisture gets pulled in...(which will determine where the sweet spot is.....)
SOOOO MANY factors have to come together for us (Charlotte) to get blasted.....
Ahh... Well 2' of snow still isn't a concern as far as utilities are concerned.
Where were you early last decade when a couple of foot plus heavy wet snows knocked power out in Mecklenburg, Anson, and Union counties? My grandma went three weeks without power during the freezing winter because the heavy snow pulled down power lines. Further, winds will be howling this weekend, further increasing chance of power outages.
Met from American wx forums
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/to...post__p__156109 (broken link)
QUOTE
yep It starts here early Christmas morning and grows sttronger for us because of the pivoting going on, we never stop snowing due to extreme lift and cverngence along the inverted axis, you can clearly see it on the isobars bowing back to the APPs.
Also, very cold aloft. The pressure gets down to 976 over ne NC
this is a huge snowstorm that clobbers the bulk areas east of ATL (ATL is good snow early on for sure) and then probably right up to the mtns in NC but obvioulsy in the piedmont they get crushed. The 5H looks similar withe closing off. but still if this happens too late, then we wont' get nearly this much qpf. I like how the EURO is holding its ground. Very imprssed with its consistency.
As to qpf, don't sweat these numbers yet because the model can't do it justice yet. Go by the setup and you'll get a much better accurate dose of reality. Since we don't have this setup EVER, I say all normal rules are out the window. You've got a neg. tilting and closing trough in a very unusual spot, being north Florida/souther GA , so all points due north are going to get slammed with heavy snow. Its like what happens in sudden Miller B for the northern Midatlantic, only the extreme blocking is pushed eveything so incredibly far south, and we have some very juicy Gulf stream waters, so who knows how this really will play out. I will say I'm almost positive that the QPF totals are extremely under done for ATL up to GSO , because that region should get into the best lift as the neg. tilt is ongoing, so deformation snows will hammer 85 for a very, very long time.
(Reuters) – The Northeast will not have a white Christmas.
A winter storm that was expected earlier in the week for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in the Northeast will be delayed by a day, if it makes an appearance at all, according to forecasters referencing U.S. government weather data.
"It doesn't look as dramatic as it did earlier this week," said Bob Haas, a meteorologist with MDA EarthSat Weather in Rockville, Maryland.
Cities in the lower U.S. Midwest will likely still get snow, but the storm is not expected to arrive in the Northeast, if at all, until Christmas night into Sunday, Haas said.
The U.S. Global Forecasting System, a weather prediction model run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows the storm remaining mostly offshore and as less of a threat to cities along the Interstate 95 corridor on the East Coast than previous forecasts.
The storm right now is more of a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast cities as light snow or rain.
One caveat is the European equivalent of the GFS, which shows the storm moving inland instead of remaining offshore.
In that scenario, snow would start early on Christmas Day around the North Carolina-Virginia border, then make its way up the East Coast toward New England on Saturday and into Sunday.
Colder-than-normal temperatures are still expected to linger in the Northeast next week, with the coldest temperatures expected Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures will warm up thereafter. January weather in the Northeast is expected to be variable, with bursts of cold moderated by warmer periods in between, Haas said.
i saw a forecast just now on the weather channel's website for national forecast. The snow looks to be north of us, bordering virginia, but more likely rain than anything else. I think i might cry. Ehh, I'm kidding myself anyways to think Waxhaw is EVER going to get snow.
Lil, why don't you go to boards like American Wx and TalkWeather, where real meteorologists discuss the very latest computer models and professional thinking on the weather? The Weather Channel is considered a joke amongst meteorologists because they rely on one model and dumb down their programming. Why don't you go to American Wx board, et al instead for the best expert opinion?
Lil, why don't you go to boards like American Wx and TalkWeather, where real meteorologists discuss the very latest computer models and professional thinking on the weather? The Weather Channel is considered a joke amongst meteorologists because they rely on one model and dumb down their programming. Why don't you go to American Wx board, et al instead for the best expert opinion?
Post some links so we amateurs can figure out where to go.
Lil, why don't you go to boards like American Wx and TalkWeather, where real meteorologists discuss the very latest computer models and professional thinking on the weather? The Weather Channel is considered a joke amongst meteorologists because they rely on one model and dumb down their programming. Why don't you go to American Wx board, et al instead for the best expert opinion?
Tarheel, hate to tell you this, but its way too early to have an accurate prediction if this storm will severly impact us w/snow. If you know weather, you already know that.
Spending my whole life in NJ I know that for a fact...there were so many storms growing up that had so much hype built up and fizzled out, so all I'm saying is chill out a little........
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
