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If Zillow is not good enough for you then feel free to provide another source proving that home values have appreciated at a greater rate in Indiana than in Illinois over the past year. Until then, your post has no merit (and the part about Chicago and NWI home values being completely independent of one another is certainly wrong regardless).
Zillow is not good enough as it's a bunch of crap! The following links of Illinois and Indiana Realtors show that both states were up +3.9% for closed home sales from Dec 2015- Dec 2016. As far as sales price, Indiana homes closed 7% higher in the past year while Illinois was up 6.4%. Not a big difference but still higher.
AND as far as what my home could sell for....... I never mentioned Zillow, someone else did. What I said is that it appraised 18% higher than what I paid for it 8 months ago which is not typical. And YES homes (new build and existing) are selling all around me for the appraised value that I received so I'm pretty confident in that number as my area is in high demand.
Zillow is not good enough as it's a bunch of crap! The following links of Illinois and Indiana Realtors show that both states were up +3.9% for closed home sales from Dec 2015- Dec 2016. As far as sales price, Indiana homes closed 7% higher in the past year while Illinois was up 6.4%. Not a big difference but still higher.
AND as far as what my home could sell for....... I never mentioned Zillow, someone else did. What I said is that it appraised 18% higher than what I paid for it 8 months ago which is not typical. And YES homes (new build and existing) are selling all around me for the appraised value that I received so I'm pretty confident in that number as my area is in high demand.
From the sites you linked, the 12 month average median sales price rose by 5.2% in Indiana compared to 6.4% in Illinois. Even if we call those equal, it still proves my initial point that high property taxes in Illinois have had little effect on real estate appreciation in recent years even though those living in Indiana cite this as some huge barrier. This is evidenced by the fact that Illinois has equaled or slightly outpaced it's neighboring state in the past couple years, a state in which is lauded for its extremely low property taxes. Point is, while property taxes are a part of the equation there are other more important factors influencing the Chicagoland real estate market and property taxes aren't the end all be all many Indiana residents claim it to be.
From the sites you linked, the 12 month average median sales price rose by 5.2% in Indiana compared to 6.4% in Illinois. Even if we call those equal, it still proves my initial point that high property taxes in Illinois have had little effect on real estate appreciation in recent years even though those living in Indiana cite this as some huge barrier. This is evidenced by the fact that Illinois has equaled or slightly outpaced it's neighboring state in the past couple years, a state in which is lauded for its extremely low property taxes. Point is, while property taxes are a part of the equation there are other more important factors influencing the Chicagoland real estate market and property taxes aren't the end all be all many Indiana residents claim it to be.
I apologize that my figures in post #202 were incorrect.........HOWEVER
LOOK AGAIN.... Funny you mentioned that the median sales price rose 5.2% in Indiana compared to Illinois at 6.4%, but you did not mention that the number of CLOSED SALES rose 7.7% for the year in Indiana compared to 3.9% in Illinois! So YES, people are leaving Illinois and not moving there as much as they are other states! And I'm sure it has to due with Illinois COL in general, taxes, corruption and crime.
And the percentage difference for median sales price between Indiana and Illinois is due to lower COL in Indiana, but overall not a big difference between 5.2% and 6.4%
I apologize that my figures in post #202 were incorrect.........HOWEVER
LOOK AGAIN.... Funny you mentioned that the median sales price rose 5.2% in Indiana compared to Illinois at 6.4%, but you did not mention that the number of CLOSED SALES rose 7.7% for the year in Indiana compared to 3.9% in Illinois! So YES, people are leaving Illinois and not moving there as much as they are other states! And I'm sure it has to due with Illinois COL in general, taxes, corruption and crime.
And the percentage difference for median sales price between Indiana and Illinois is due to lower COL in Indiana, but overall not a big difference between 5.2% and 6.4%
I'm not sure what point you are even arguing anymore. My point is simple. If high property taxes were such a great concern and certain to create a drag on home value appreciation, then why have prices appreciated at a comparable rate in a high tax area (Illinois/Chicagoland) when compared to a low tax area (Indiana/NWI)? Clearly there is more to the story and it's not as black and white (with regards to effects of property taxes) as Indiana boosters claim it to be.
As has been said, NWI really is not much of an alternative for too many folks in Illinois -- the sorts of commute trade-offs alone make it too hard for most folks, there just are very few good options.
That said it is silly to write off NWI. Heck, I've stopped at the Costco in Merrillville and been somewhat pleasantly surprised as to how much the shoppers and workers seem the same Costco in Schaumburg or Bolingbrook. Of course it does not take any MS in "demography" to understand that with additional stores in probably a dozen Illinois locations (including desirable locations like Naperville, Mettawa, Glenview and Oak Brook) there is currently far more widespread affluence in Illinois than Indiana and it will take many years of both near impossible good fortune in NWI and unrelenting political intransigence by Illinois' dying Machine to shift that...
The latest "feud" between clueless Rahm and the only path to Chicago's continuing borrowing is not encouraging, hopefully today's State of the State address will not be marred by such stupidity. No doubt some of Rahm's strategists are encouraging him to "join the verbal battle" that seem to grab headlines regarding national trends but the there is a limit to what sorts of charades the voters will accept and what is likely to backfire and reveal Rahm to be even more duplicitous than many voters know him to be. The sorts of tactics that work for a basically likeable guy, like Rahm's former boss Bill Clinton, are very different than what voters will tolerant from those close associates who despite sleeping under the same roof have far narrower appeal...
I would also warn anyone who foolishly believes Zestimates should understand that every real estate professional on the boards here or any other place literally laugh at those numbers. The sorts of errors inherent in the Zillow system are well known. Especially for folks in condos or townhomes the variability that is inherent with sales of distressed units and subsequent flipping are specifically eliminated by better pricing models like that of Case-Schiller. If the poster above has a single family home the range of errors that Zillow bakes into their flawed model include ignorance over school boundaries, no offset for nearby negatives like busy streets or noisy CTA trains that seriously impact some homes, and a generally shameful disregard for all "condition" factors. If the above poster really believes they could quickly make a six figure profit I would encourage them to attempt to cash out in the upcoming spring market, I can recommend several agent that I now to be active in the desirable parts of Chicago. Of course if they are not willing to also pay more for replacement property in a similarly hot "sellers market" that exists in the hip areas they'll need to decide on alternatives to actually realize a gain...
I'm not sure what point you are even arguing anymore. My point is simple. If high property taxes were such a great concern and certain to create a drag on home value appreciation, then why have prices appreciated at a comparable rate in a high tax area (Illinois/Chicagoland) when compared to a low tax area (Indiana/NWI)? Clearly there is more to the story and it's not as black and white (with regards to effects of property taxes) as Indiana boosters claim it to be.
I'm just agreeing with the article that the OP posted for the obvious reasons which has WAY more to do with than just high property taxes. I completely understand why people stay in Illinois. I lived there for 40 years and my husband still works there, so we will also pay Illinois income tax which is said to be increasing. However, with the money I'm saving with lower COL and lower property taxes in Indiana I'm happy to save that money or use it for other things than giving to the government. And we're close enough to still enjoy the benefits of the city if we wish. Everyone lives where they are happy and I'm not disputing that either.
As has been said, NWI really is not much of an alternative for too many folks in Illinois -- the sorts of commute trade-offs alone make it too hard for most folks, there just are very few good options.
That said it is silly to write off NWI. Heck, I've stopped at the Costco in Merrillville and been somewhat pleasantly surprised as to how much the shoppers and workers seem the same Costco in Schaumburg or Bolingbrook. Of course it does not take any MS in "demography" to understand that with additional stores in probably a dozen Illinois locations (including desirable locations like Naperville, Mettawa, Glenview and Oak Brook) there is currently far more widespread affluence in Illinois than Indiana and it will take many years of both near impossible good fortune in NWI and unrelenting political intransigence by Illinois' dying Machine to shift that...
The latest "feud" between clueless Rahm and the only path to Chicago's continuing borrowing is not encouraging, hopefully today's State of the State address will not be marred by such stupidity. No doubt some of Rahm's strategists are encouraging him to "join the verbal battle" that seem to grab headlines regarding national trends but the there is a limit to what sorts of charades the voters will accept and what is likely to backfire and reveal Rahm to be even more duplicitous than many voters know him to be. The sorts of tactics that work for a basically likeable guy, like Rahm's former boss Bill Clinton, are very different than what voters will tolerant from those close associates who despite sleeping under the same roof have far narrower appeal...
I would also warn anyone who foolishly believes Zestimates should understand that every real estate professional on the boards here or any other place literally laugh at those numbers. The sorts of errors inherent in the Zillow system are well known. Especially for folks in condos or townhomes the variability that is inherent with sales of distressed units and subsequent flipping are specifically eliminated by better pricing models like that of Case-Schiller. If the poster above has a single family home the range of errors that Zillow bakes into their flawed model include ignorance over school boundaries, no offset for nearby negatives like busy streets or noisy CTA trains that seriously impact some homes, and a generally shameful disregard for all "condition" factors. If the above poster really believes they could quickly make a six figure profit I would encourage them to attempt to cash out in the upcoming spring market, I can recommend several agent that I now to be active in the desirable parts of Chicago. Of course if they are not willing to also pay more for replacement property in a similarly hot "sellers market" that exists in the hip areas they'll need to decide on alternatives to actually realize a gain...
Zillow on an individual home value basis is NOT useful; however, on a macro level (i.e. city, state, etc.) it is a useful barometer of overall trends and market performance.
Zillow on an individual home value basis is NOT useful; however, on a macro level (i.e. city, state, etc.) it is a useful barometer of overall trends and market performance.
The problems with ANY "aggregation model" of residential property is that housing is NOT a commodity, there are all kinds of factors that make it uniquely hard to get good data -- when a place is "booming" due to rapid expansion fueled by mega-builders acquisition of low cost tracts of land that skews numbers to the high side and there is ALWAYS a rather nasty rebound / bust when the folks who moved to far off spots become dissatisfied with long commutes... {I suspect that similar bust will be realized in "gentrified" areas as home owners grow tired of negatives of certain aspects of urban density too -- https://www.fastcodesign.com/3042845...sity-get-wrong }
There are similar negative effects when spate of foreclosures or other distressed sales clog up an area, the resulting "deals" attract would be flippers and if the area has solid base of desirability there is a potential window of significant "post flip" profits but in areas where things are not so promising the flippers end up defaulting too...
The problems with ANY "aggregation model" of residential property is that housing is NOT a commodity, there are all kinds of factors that make it uniquely hard to get good data -- when a place is "booming" due to rapid expansion fueled by mega-builders acquisition of low cost tracts of land that skews numbers to the high side and there is ALWAYS a rather nasty rebound / bust when the folks who moved to far off spots become dissatisfied with long commutes... {I suspect that similar bust will be realized in "gentrified" areas as home owners grow tired of negatives of certain aspects of urban density too -- https://www.fastcodesign.com/3042845...sity-get-wrong }
There are similar negative effects when spate of foreclosures or other distressed sales clog up an area, the resulting "deals" attract would be flippers and if the area has solid base of desirability there is a potential window of significant "post flip" profits but in areas where things are not so promising the flippers end up defaulting too...
The concept of "rapid expansion" in Illinois or Indiana, and Chicagoland in particular, as it relates to current home value appreciation really isn't a factor. Now if you want to apply this concept to say a metro like Dallas then, sure, it likely comes into play. But I was comparing Chicagoland and Illinois home values specifically to NWI and Indiana. Neither of these areas or states are experiencing "rapid expansion."
The concept of "rapid expansion" in Illinois or Indiana, and Chicagoland in particular, as it relates to current home value appreciation really isn't a factor. Now if you want to apply this concept to say a metro like Dallas then, sure, it likely comes into play. But I was comparing Chicagoland and Illinois home values specifically to NWI and Indiana. Neither of these areas or states are experiencing "rapid expansion."
That article is dated March 2016 Where I'm at there's new construction going up everywhere and homes and lots are selling quickly!
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Not really...
Where I'm at there's new construction going up everywhere and homes and lots are selling quickly!
