Chicago Housing Market 2022 (Winnetka, Nashville, Phoenix: low income, apartment, crime)

[Justabystander]

Originally Posted by personone

Chicago has one of the worst reputations for violent crime for major cities, nationally or internationally. Even if it’s not alone, it’s reputation precedes it. This negative media reputation directly impacts housing from a transplant/migration perspective. If it weren’t for the negative crime reputation, many more people would flock to Chicago over those sunbelt cities, despite the cold weather. Unfortunately from personal experience, even BEFORE the last couple of years, when I would travel and mention I was from Chinese, the first thing mist would say is, “Is it really that bad out there?” Fair or not, this reputation prevents Chicago from being a popular destination for transplants.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/just-crazy...110800295.html

All time homocide records in 12 major cities, not Chicago. Crime has not affecting the upward trajectory of sales and prices in Chicago- records this year were broken left and right with real estate, and it hasn't stopped anyone from buying. Perhaps there is a perception, but not to stop most people from moving or buying into to this beautiful city. As a transplant who grew up on the west coast, there is alot more to Chicago than what you are talking about. Proof of this were the number of tourists, almost 60 million, that came to the city pre-pandemic.

[personone]

Originally Posted by Chi-town

For sure more then winters alone hurt Chicago. We know the list. Taxes, political corruption, crime, winter. Rinse repeat

I read how you like Philadelphia. You should concider that city to move to again. I suggest reading their crime forum too. A NYC one also. Houston also.

No one lessens Chicago more then some locals. Same in other forums. We do have a National surge and proving in news in other cities of their rising issues. I was reading recently on Indianapolis huge rise.

I gave my opinion on Chicago stagnant since 2000 by % alone and to point out crime rise in other cities.

A professional as yourself may feel you should move to a booming city if you feel buying in Chicago is not worth the risk. I only find links on growth still forecast. They work for me too.

Any suburb USA tends to have lower crime. I suggest them too. One cannot wave a magic wand to fix it. If not hopeful one can migrate elsewhere. Buying in a hyped over heated market one has to consider too. Especially as many predict peak markets to slow?

I only lived in Philly for 2 years. I liked it, but like Chicago better. Chicago has a worse crime reputation than even Philly’s, which has gotten pretty bad over the last few years. But I won’t move to a place just because I like it. There’s lots of factors- available jobs in my profession, COL, people, weather, etc. The negative crime reputation and incidents have worn on me, and I am considering moving out when the time is right, but it won’t be Philly. I am eyeing Boston, Raleigh-Durham, San Diego, LA region, and the Bay Area.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Justabystander

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/just-crazy...110800295.html

All time homocide records in 12 major cities, not Chicago. Crime has not affecting the upward trajectory of sales and prices in Chicago- records this year were broken left and right with real estate, and it hasn't stopped anyone from buying. Perhaps there is a perception, but not to stop most people from moving or buying into to this beautiful city. As a transplant who grew up on the west coast, there is alot more to Chicago than what you are talking about. Proof of this were the number of tourists, almost 60 million, that came to the city pre-pandemic.

As I said in my post above, I think a lot of these high prices are being driven by coastal and foreign investors who may not yet have a full grasp of the evolving and growing crime issue, and are focused on cap rates which are presently better than most major metros. Hope you're right but I would serve that optimism with a grain of salt!

[Don Cuccino]

Originally Posted by Greencheese

I think most people would rather live somewhere where when its 100 outside is considered the bad weather season so you chill in the pool vs 0 outside and you're stuck inside. Plus in places like Phoenix often the weather is quite cool in the mornings or at night when the sun goes down so you can venture outside after dark and have fun..

0 degree temperatures occur a handful of times. That's not the norm for Chicago winters. 110 highs are very common in Phoenix. The night time temps are often upper 80s or even 90s in the summer. I'll pass. At least with cold weather you can layer up and stay relatively warm. No clothing can make 110 degree temperatures bearable.

Originally Posted by Greencheese

Whereas in Illinois its cold, cloudy and restrictively cold from November until March that pretty much cuts off outdoor activities not associated with sports. If we had elevation for skiing then maybe more people would be receptive to it, but as it stands the cold mostly closes the outdoors around here and creates a wonderful 3+ months of salt that slowly eats away at your car

It was 46 today, 49 tomorrow, 47 day after, and 60 next week.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by BRU67

As I said in my post above, I think a lot of these high prices are being driven by coastal and foreign investors who may not yet have a full grasp of the evolving and growing crime issue, and are focused on cap rates which are presently better than most major metros. Hope you're right but I would serve that optimism with a grain of salt!

Some of the big Chicago-based brokerages, @Properties, in particular, have devoted a lot of marketing resources into boosting Chicago luxury property as a value play to high net worth investors. It's a bunch of nonsense especially when you factor in the insane carrying costs that Illinois properties come with.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

Some of the big Chicago-based brokerages, @Properties, in particular, have devoted a lot of marketing resources into boosting Chicago luxury property as a value play to high net worth investors. It's a bunch of nonsense especially when you factor in the insane carrying costs that Illinois properties come with.

I think that's true in the residential sector. I've been prattling on here for years about the alarming growing gap between the Emerald City and the rest of Chicago. But some of these sale prices up north and the taxes which are coming with these properties are shocking even me.

I've run pro formas on some 2-3 units in places like Logan Square and even Portage Park and just laugh. It's ridiculous. These cannot be investors, unless they're really bad ones. It has to be people are going to live in the property and don't really care if they have to write a check each month.

We've got a lot of really rich people in this City, and that's nice. But let's not forget the middle class. We need a more diverse economy with good paying blue collar jobs, not just professional jobs, which have proven unstable in this new era of remote working. I've been warning about this for years. Hopefully we don't get burned too badly and we can change course.

[Don Cuccino]

Originally Posted by BRU67

I think that's true in the residential sector. I've been prattling on here for years about the alarming growing gap between the Emerald City and the rest of Chicago. But some of these sale prices up north and the taxes which are coming with these properties are shocking even me.

I've run pro formas on some 2-3 units in places like Logan Square and even Portage Park and just laugh. It's ridiculous. These cannot be investors, unless they're really bad ones. It has to be people are going to live in the property and don't really care if they have to write a check each month.

We've got a lot of really rich people in this City, and that's nice. But let's not forget the middle class. We need a more diverse economy with good paying blue collar jobs, not just professional jobs, which have proven unstable in this new era of remote working. I've been warning about this for years. Hopefully we don't get burned too badly and we can change course.

A lot of home buyers are buying properties based on speculation. They're expecting their homes to increase in values so it's worth it because they expect to recuperatethe costs. I think this is foolishness but it's not my money so to each their own.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Don Cuccino

A lot of home buyers are buying properties based on speculation. They're expecting their homes to increase in values so it's worth it because they expect to recuperatethe costs. I think this is foolishness but it's not my money so to each their own.

I suspect you're right. I think it's very risky at best, if not foolish as you said. But if the values somehow do keep going up, then they will look like the smartest people in the room haha.

Half a million is more than I would gamble on the real estate market here but again, as you said, it's their money, and they are certainly spending it. As long as they keep paying their mortgages and taxes and don't plunge us into another financial crisis, I'm good.

[Kmanshouse]

Originally Posted by personone

Raleigh, Austin, Charlotte, Tampa, Denver, Phoenix, and San Diego are metros with the highest growth in the last year, I believe. Surprisingly, Boston I think had pretty high population growth, despite how expensive it is. In general, the warmer and lower COL cities.

Denver and San Diego are both more expensive than Chicago. People leaving CA aren't even going to Denver anymore due to the costs.

PHX is now a huge metro area and not a "smaller" city.

Raleigh and Austin seem to continue to stay hot markets for sure. But those prices are rising fast. Not sure Austin is any cheaper than Chicago at this point. Though the 5% raise due to no state income tax helps.

[Hiruko]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

Denver and San Diego are both more expensive than Chicago. People leaving CA aren't even going to Denver anymore due to the costs.

PHX is now a huge metro area and not a "smaller" city.

Raleigh and Austin seem to continue to stay hot markets for sure. But those prices are rising fast. Not sure Austin is any cheaper than Chicago at this point. Though the 5% raise due to no state income tax helps.

Colorado has relatively low taxes, both property and income, and the wages are very high. It's like a lower tax, more diverse, and less rusty Minnesota. The same applies to Denver vis-a-vis Minneapolis. Most transplants to Denver have been from the Midwestern states contrary to popular belief.