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Cities are so irrelevant in modern times, getting frustrated over a city passing another is just comical. I mean, why? Anyways these guesses are all just for fun, who is to know what happens tomorrow much less 39 years from now?
Metros:
1. New York- 25 million
2. Los Angeles- 23 million
3. Chicago- 15 million
4. Houston- 14 million
5. Metroplex- 13.5 million
6. Washington- 10 million (Baltimore metro not included)
7. Bay Area- 10 million
8. Miami- 9 million
9. Atlanta- 8.7 million
10. Boston- 8.5 million
11. Philadelphia- 8 million
12. Phoenix- 7.5 million
13. Detroit- 7 million
Washington and Baltimore are two separate metros, IMO
Last edited by Social Network; 09-04-2011 at 07:11 PM..
I think NYC will remain the largest city with around 11,000,000 residents I mean were supposed to hit 9.5 mill by 2025. There's still a lot of development that can be done in the outer boroughs especially Staten Island not to mention innovation in technology which will most likely allow us to build so much higher with more Manhattan residents living in these supertall high rises.
1 NYC 11 Mill
2 LA 6 Mill
3 Houston 4 mill
4 Chicago 3.8 Mill
5 D/FW 3.5 Mill
Cities are so irrelevant in modern times, getting frustrated over a city passing another is just comical. I mean, why? Anyways these guesses are all just for fun, who is to know what happens tomorrow much less 39 years from now?
Metros:
1. New York- 25 millioncould be there pretty soon
2. Los Angeles- 23 millionprobably will
3. Chicago- 15 million-not gonna happen
4. Houston- 14 million- not seeing it
5. Dallas- 13.5 million- nope
6. Washington- 10 million (Baltimore metro not included)- this one I see
7. Bay Area- 10 million- maybe
8. Miami- 9 million not happening
9. Atlanta- 8.7 million maybe
10. Boston- 8.5 million not happening under current definitions
11. Philadelphia- 8 million- nope
12. Phoenix- 7.5 million- slim chance
^^ only ones I see reaching those numbers are
NY, LA and DC.
LA metro built out and in filled and there is the room enough for many more. Potential is there to become one of the biggest dense swarths of land under the unbrella of one metro in the US.
NY is close to 25M already so not that hard to see.
It is however hard to see Chicago gaining 1.5 million plus people a decade over the next 4 decades. The metro definitions would have to change.
As for the New Big 5, DC has the best chance based on current happenings. I am a jobs type of person and my opinion is highly based on that. I have no trouble seeing DC gaining 4.5M in the next 40 years.
The other 4 is hard for me.
Houston, like LA has the land and the road infrastructure to support 14M people but holy mother of congestion Batman.
As for DFW, the current road system doesn't seem to be conducive to having that many people as it is in LA. DFW would have to rework plans a bit to make it work. And Like Houston, I don't see DFW gaining 7M people in 40 years. I expect DFW to max out at 8.5 to 9M and Houston to approach 10M.
the 2 others, Miami and ATl, are growing way to slowly now for me to see them gaining a million a decade.
same lines of thought go for Philly and Phoenix. No way is philly getting to 8M under current metro definitions, and forget about Phoenix gaining 1m a decade for the next 4 years. Additionally I am not sure Phoenix metro can support that many people due to water restraints
I think NYC will remain the largest city with around 11,000,000 residents I mean were supposed to hit 9.5 mill by 2025. There's still a lot of development that can be done in the outer boroughs especially Staten Island not to mention innovation in technology which will most likely allow us to build so much higher with more Manhattan residents living in these supertall high rises.
1 NYC 11 Mill
2 LA 6 Mill
3 Houston 4 mill
4 Chicago 3.8 Mill
5 D/FW 3.5 Mill
lol, DFW is not a city. Why did you combine those???
Location: NY-NJ-Philly looks down at SF and laughs at the hippies
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spire
3. Chicago, Illinois
Population: 3,800,000
Chicago's population has the reputation for going up, and then falling right back down, but with Urban living making a comeback, I think it will keep a slight lead over Houston.
Why do people get caught up in the population of a city? Four of the most unique cities in this country have small populations in Miami, DC, SF and Boston. I would be more worried about the urbanity and uniqueness of my city, which in my eyes Houston won't pass Chicago in.
I'll explain my list a little more, I added prediction projections to the CSA figures for Los Angeles, New York, Bay Area, Boston, Philadelphia, Metroplex, Atlanta, Detroit. I didn't use CSA's for Houston, Chicago, Washington, Phoenix, and Miami.
Houston and Chicago barely have a difference from MSA to CSA, and I don't think of Baltimore and Washington as one area, and most who live in either don't either unless only for strict employment. Migration has nothing to do with the numbers that I placed for Dallas or Houston, the reality is that they are two large metros with 6 million or more people and that means there are more births now than there were in 2000 because there are more people, leading to a larger population from births minus deaths. Immigration staying constant, and migration seeing a 25% decline from out of state. Enhancements being made to the industries in Dallas and Houston, with logistics, NAFTA superhighway, ports, airports, energy industry becoming smarter, and medical research leading new heights. Maybe its stretch to say 14 million but who is to know exactly? Rates can accelerate or decelerate? I like acceleration, I'm also an optimist and think highly of all places, so i give them the benefit of doubt.
I don't see an issue with it. Todays road networks can't support 14 million people, but who is to know of 2050's road network? Miami in much of the same way is growing because of immigration and births minus deaths. All 3 of these metros are still young and in 20 to 30 years those youngsters will be married and have families, doubling their household size as the metro begins to age but with greater population.
Washington will likely come near or become a mega city on its own given the way the government has been headed for the last 20 years. if it keeps up, then its done. Chicago will swallow in Rockford, corner areas of Michigan, and some areas of central Illinois and then grow modestly by 2 million in 40 years, totaling near 14 to 15 million.
Atlanta and Phoenix are tough to describe, I don't know where they went wrong and slowed down and when they'll kick back up, if ever. I need to wait until the next census before being entirely sure on either.
Detroit is already at 5.3 million on CSA and 5.7 million combined with Windsor and I count international areas as well. I think it reaching 6.5 million to 7 million isn't too much of a impossible task if it can reverse itself which in 40 years can be more than likely.
Philadelphia has 40 years to go from 6.5 million to 8 million. Come on bro, i think thats possible even if its growth is slow. Same for Boston which is already 7.6 million, it has 40 years to gain a mere 1 million.
Why do people get caught up in the population of a city?
I agree that city populations are irrelevant, metro populations are not however.
If you want a position in the worlds pecking order you have to be a large and relevant economy which is fed by large population and the only economically capable cities in this country to reach global lines in 2050 are New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, Bay Area, Boston, Houston, Philadelphia, and Dallas.
Do people really think China's rise to prominence is impressive? It's only ruled because the country has 1.3 billion inhabitants, it has the size to pull off the worlds largest economy, the fact that it hasn't been able to in its existence is its failure for not using its size to its advantage.
I'll explain my list a little more, I added prediction projections to the CSA figures for Los Angeles, New York, Bay Area, Boston, Philadelphia, Metroplex, Atlanta, Detroit. I didn't use CSA's for Houston, Chicago, Washington, Phoenix, and Miami.
Houston and Chicago barely have a difference from MSA to CSA, and I don't think of Baltimore and Washington as one area, and most who live in either don't either unless only for strict employment. Migration has nothing to do with the numbers that I placed for Dallas or Houston, the reality is that they are two large metros with 6 million or more people and that means there are more births now than there were in 2000 because there are more people, leading to a larger population from births minus deaths. Immigration staying constant, and migration seeing a 25% decline from out of state. Enhancements being made to the industries in Dallas and Houston, with logistics, NAFTA superhighway, ports, airports, energy industry becoming smarter, and medical research leading new heights. Maybe its stretch to say 14 million but who is to know exactly? Rates can accelerate or decelerate? I like acceleration, I'm also an optimist and think highly of all places, so i give them the benefit of doubt.
I don't see an issue with it. Todays road networks can't support 14 million people, but who is to know of 2050's road network? Miami in much of the same way is growing because of immigration and births minus deaths. All 3 of these metros are still young and in 20 to 30 years those youngsters will be married and have families, doubling their household size as the metro begins to age but with greater population.
Washington will likely come near or become a mega city on its own given the way the government has been headed for the last 20 years. if it keeps up, then its done. Chicago will swallow in Rockford, corner areas of Michigan, and some areas of central Illinois and then grow modestly by 2 million in 40 years, totaling near 14 to 15 million.
Atlanta and Phoenix are tough to describe, I don't know where they went wrong and slowed down and when they'll kick back up, if ever. I need to wait until the next census before being entirely sure on either.
Detroit is already at 5.3 million on CSA and 5.7 million combined with Windsor and I count international areas as well. I think it reaching 6.5 million to 7 million isn't too much of a impossible task if it can reverse itself which in 40 years can be more than likely.
ok, if you are doing CSA, LA will be there VERY soon, so will NY. Boston I will bump up to a maybe to join SF.
PHilly, the metroplex, and ATL I still don't see. For Houston to get to 14M I think it will have to have some major job growth on the periphery in order to control congestion. Maybe if the job growth booms somewhere in Beaumont and then those two combine easing the number of people flooding Harris County to work then it might happen.
As for Miami and Phoenix, the goal just seems too far to accomplish.
ok, if you are doing CSA, LA will be there VERY soon, so will NY. Boston I will bump up to a maybe to join SF.
PHilly, the metroplex, and ATL I still don't see. For Houston to get to 14M I think it will have to have some major job growth on the periphery in order to control congestion. Maybe if the job growth booms somewhere in Beaumont and then those two combine easing the number of people flooding Harris County to work then it might happen.
As for Miami and Phoenix, the goal just seems too far to accomplish.
I don't know about Phoenix or Atlanta, to me they feel untested to be honest because we don't really know when and what year they stopped their high growth and we don't even know whether or not they're growing at all. the census gave us numbers for the entire decade so it accounts for total growth, who is to know Phoenix may have been larger but shrank a small bit the last 3 years of the decade but still showed positive growth because of the extreme growth in the first 7 years of the decade. Atlanta is more tricky because it seems to be suffering right now economically more than it was the last few years.
I think Atlantans wouldn't mind though, would give them time to ease their infrastructure to catch up to the population they already have but I can't say because its untested. Will have to wait until 2020 to formulate an opinion on its growth and same with Phoenix.
Alright maybe 14 million is a stretch but by 2050, meaning 40 years I can assure you that 10 to 11 million is easily possible. This is going to be a better decade for your city than last decade mainly due to all the enhancements taking place in this time period. Conclusion of this decade will leave anywhere from 7.1 million to 7.4 million and from there the next 30 years just need a minimal growth period to catch up and it can still reach megacity status. Beaumont will be to Houston as Riverside and San Bernardino is to Los Angeles, where expats go for more affordable housing when Houston starts beginning to price out. I say Beaumont because Houston's east is readied for a boom due to the increase in oil pipelines, ports, and other necessities the city feeds off Beaumont for.
Philadelphia is more than possible: Lancaster, Reading, and Allentown are only going to merge int Philadelphia, those being PA's highest growth metros and being adjacent to Philly are mostly like overgrown exurban regions. We've seen it happen with Reading already, it merged with Philly in the CSA and will likely solidify itself into the core metro, MSA. Philly will likely consume the entire state of Delaware and gain the present day addition of 500,000 more people.
I'm not going to speak on the land taken from Philly and given to New York because anything can happen there but even if Philly doesn't get those areas back and even if it does't merge with Atlantic City's area it will easily reach 8.5 to 9 million. Philadelphia with Allentown, Lancaster, all of DE, and Reading today makes up the same land area as Boston, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Washington, Atlanta and has a population of 7.8 million today. I think in 40 years it can grow at least 1 million minimum to get to near 9 million. Regional transit is also linking Philly to these mentioned areas the same way Boston has to Providence, areas in NH, and Worcester.
Miami's situation is tricky to explain and it may cause extreme confusion when explaining.
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