[itscolduphere]

Funny! Love the facial expressions (or lack of?)
(Sorry for getting off topic, Jay - couldn't resist)

[jp03]

Originally Posted by itscolduphere

Funny! Love the facial expressions (or lack of?)
(Sorry for getting off topic, Jay - couldn't resist)

I know...especially that third one.

Back on topic..Irene has weakened a little bit..eye will come right over New Haven on this model run. I suspect winds are not going to be what people think they are going to be especially away from the coast and to the west side of the eye...hurricane force gusts at the coast,,50-60 MPH inland at most..that could even be inflated to be honest. But the RAIN and storm surge are the key problems, no reason to let the guard down in the least. ..

[Kreliroth]

How bad will it be for towns near the river?

[Angelic_Avalon]

Dont take this too serious but I read tarot cards... all my cards says slightly stronger than floyd, but not as worst as Gloria or Bob, therefore slightly less. So I kinda feel like it that way too. Kinda putting my cards to test, but I trust them

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

I know...especially that third one.

Back on topic..Irene has weakened a little bit..eye will come right over New Haven on this model run. I suspect winds are not going to be what people think they are going to be especially away from the coast and to the west side of the eye...hurricane force gusts at the coast,,50-60 MPH inland at most..that could even be inflated to be honest. But the RAIN and storm surge are the key problems, no reason to let the guard down in the least. ..

I agree with this and will use this in comment to Wavehunter's response to my comment from a few pages ago. The 2nd half of that comment (mine) said that even though I think it will be "like Floyd", enough potential is there to take this as seriously as if it is "the 1938 storm" and enough that I could very well be wrong.

Second, where I agree with him (her?) is that IF we even get (as Wavehunter says the news puts it) winds are "only high Cat 1 (90 mph)" or it strikes at highest tide (as appears very likely now) it will be "worse than Floyd". I'm assuming it will still weaken to "high tropical storm" or "bare Cat 1" strength, but the storm surge will still likely be worse than Floyd in that scenario.

Cambium, I'm curious what park in New Rochelle you have that cam set up? I'm very familiar with Davenport Park, and I know its wall had surprising damage during Bertha in 1996 (eye went right over New Rochelle, but it was below a hurricane) so you may get some great footage from there.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Angelic_Avalon

Dont take this too serious but I read tarot cards... all my cards says slightly stronger than floyd, but not as worst as Gloria or Bob, therefore slightly less. So I kinda feel like it that way too. Kinda putting my cards to test, but I trust them

I think Floyd was worse than Gloria ..gloria unless you were in L.I. or coastal CT was not much..

[Mixum]

"the storm of a lifetime"

thats what the weather channel is calling this thing

[KaoCT]

Originally Posted by Mixum

"the storm of a lifetime"

thats what the weather channel is calling this thing

TWC overhypes everything, it gets annoying.

[andthentherewere3]

According to Gil Simmons the storm has weakened and is now likely to remain a Cat 1 instead of going up to a 3. We are still supposed to experience "hurricane-force" winds, but he didn't clarify just how high.

[JViello]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Just to give you my take on this….(or more accurately, my guess):

I disagree – Irene is no Floyd. Irene will strike the Long Island, Conn, Rhode Island, NJ… MUCH harder than Floyd back in 1999. As I thought a few days ago, Irene is heading right for Hatteras Village in the next 24 hours. I think the 942 - 945 mb pressure is significant in that the cyclone is just now starting to feel the effect of the super warm Gulf Stream, so I think a 120-mph hurricane will near the Outer Banks in the next 24 hours.

After that, Irene will move just slightly east of due north…crossing the USA coastline across Fire Island National Seashore (give or take 10 miles) and into Connecticut near Milford or so. Irene will have sustined winds of near 100 mph at landfall in NY/CT (as opposed to 65 mph that Floyd had). Also, Irene just might produce the largest storm surge on Long Island/RI/CT since 1938 for the following reasons:

1) Irene is coming on a spring (not neap) tide – meaning tides are already running above normal. Irene is so large, with such a large wind field (TS winds extend out 290 miles!) that swells will be reaching the coastal waters later today…by Saturday there will be huge swells heading into the coastal waters. With Irene moving slower than is typical for a upper East Coast hurricane, we are going to go through at least two high tide cycles as the eye of Irene gets closer (the eye could even strike right at the moment of high tide).

2) Low Pressure – 945 Mb is quite a low pressure for an East Coast Hurricane at this latitude. With the pressure so low, the cyclone will build a higher than average dome of water in its right front sector. Irene could (and should) maintain or even deepen some from now until the eye cross over Hatteras Village. So I think Irene could come ashore across Long Island with a pressure as low as 955 mb (meaning it would only weaken slowly north of Virginia Beach). The deeper the storm, the higher the dome of the storm surge.

All morning long I have been watching the talking heads in media (who “think” they know about the hurricane history of the Northeast). They all keep saying things like “it will only be a cat 1 with maybe 90-mph winds by the time it reaches LI/CT…etc. What they fail to understand - is that about 8 of of 10 hurricanes that have EVER crossed eastern LI/eastern CT – since 1900 had the strongest winds and highest storm surge out over the ocean or in far eastern sections - (RI - Cape and Islands). Bob (1991), Donna (1960), Carol (1954), Edna (1954), and the 1944 Hurricane did this. Only the 1938 Hurricane, Hurricane Belle (a weak 75-mph hurricane when it hit LI), and Hurricane Gloria (85-mph at landfall) struck in a way that the bulk of the eastern half of the cyclone hit a large part of Connecticut.

If (and who really knows at this point) Irene strikes central Long Island/central Connecticut coast with 90- 100-mph sustained winds…and the eastern half of the storm passes over much of Connecticut, Irene will produce far greater damage than most people think.

.

I would have agreed with you a few hours ago, but now it seems dry inflow from the SW is taking some steam out of this thing. We'll see!

Originally Posted by mels

FYI- Some coworkers mentioned this morning that some Stop & Shops and Walmarts are already out of bottled water. I went supply stocking this morning at BJs. Plenty of water and it looked like they had many pallets on hand. Gas lines are a little crazy at almost every station I passed. The cashier at BJs said it looked like Christmas Eve last night with all of the lines. If, like me, you are on well water and have no generator, get water sooner rather than later!

Freeze ice blocks, (tupperware) put them in a cooler and put the items your normally use a lot from the fridge like milk, lunchmeat etc in the cooler so you are not always going into the fridge.

Also if you are on a well with no generator, fill your tub with water so you can flush the toilet etc.

As for lighting with no generator, a good option is to either buy or if you have one - a vehicle jump box with either a 12V outlet (Or some like mine actually has a 400watt inverter built in) and get a power inverter and use compact fluorescent bulbs in a lamp. They only draw about 10-13 watts and the big battery in a jumpbox can power that thing for probably 40-60 hours straight. LED's draw even less power. I have a 3 watt LED work like that's pretty friggin bright. You can probably keep it on for a week straight.

Remember your garden, pick what you want cause it's probably not going to be there. Green tomatoes can be wrapped in newspaper to ripen. Also your landscaping. I'm building some dog house shelters for our roses (They were from my wedding so don't want to lose those!)

You also don't have to use 3/4 inch plywood if you want to board windows. Heck even 1/4 will offer good protection. This isn't a cat 4-5 hurricane or F3 tornado.

These tips and more brought to you by JViello. The flood restoration specialist. lol