[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I don't know why you have to argue so much. I'll say it again, my forecast for the coming week is above average lows, for the entire week. This may or may not come to pass, but it's what Intellicast forecasts. Perhaps they have an agenda? LOL.

My forecast also shows above average lows…so I agree, there are more than one forecast to follow. What I think gets lost (or some refuse to see), is that if the daily mean temps for the rest of November (and now it looks like the 1st week of December as well) are a degree above or below it’s really meaningless; The FACT is that the pattern looks to have ABSOULTLY NO BELOW NORMAL COLD TEMPS for the eastern USA in the coming 2 to 3 weeks. We turned the bend right around November 9th….we went from -10 to – 13 to a few degrees above normal, the big departures are gone:



As I’ve always said that for the Tri-State area and southward to get true sustained wintry conditions – you need below normal temps. Otherwise warm air mixes in and you get rain, and even if snow manages to fall - it vaporizes’ in 24 hrs in warming air (look at the snow that some parts of CT had last week – 100% gone in just days due to warming weather).

With the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in its positive phase, most of the cold air will stay across the far north, while a strong Pacific jet will deliver milder air across southern Canada and down into the U.S. With the NAO trending between neutral and positive in the next two to three weeks (and not strongly negative like it has been for months)….we (locally) have little chance of seeing anything resembling winter for awhile. So no, I don’t expect to see daily highs in our area of 65 – 70 F anytime soon…but I also don’t expect any cold days with highs in the 20’s, 30’s, or even low/mid 40’s as well.

At this point (if this pattern holds)… the start of meterological winter (Dec 1st) looks to start rather mild with little true winter weather conditions for the Atlantic States below Boston.

[Mixum]

no storms next week??

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Mixum

no storms next week??

Good chance we'll see something Tuesday-ish at this point, but it's really a matter of where it ends up as to whether it ends up being rain or snow, much like the storm last week. I really don't like how every meteorologist on the planet is just terrified to use the word "snow" like it's some kind of curse all of a sudden this year.

[jp03]

[quote=wavehunter007;26934734]\


As I’ve always said that for the Tri-State area and southward to get true sustained wintry conditions – you need below normal temps. Otherwise warm air mixes in and you get rain, and even if snow manages to fall - it vaporizes’ in 24 hrs in warming air (look at the snow that some parts of CT had last week – 100% gone in just days due to warming weather).

QUOTE]

You think maybe the snow melting so quickly has something to do with the fact its early November and the average high temps were supposed to be in the mid to upper 50's? The fact it snowed AT ALL goes against every climate pattern you can find. Winter found a way to do the impossible this year..

ITS NOT WINTER YET....it should not be cold and snowing...why do we have to read the same nonsense from you every fall?

[wavehunter007]

Your welcome.....

[rockyinyourradio]

Enjoy the break in the weather while you can, look and lament over the latest EURO model. This doesn't bode well for the Sandy ravaged areas of southern New England and coastal New York. You can put your mouse over the hours indicated on the lower left.

ECMWF MODEL LOOP

Below is the link to another site on the EURO run for Thanksgiving eve. My guess is that this will trend closer to the coast and probably give you folks in places like NYC, New Haven and especially eastern MA. a major nor'easter with 40-60 mph winds and up to an inch of rain with snow on the back side, probably alot like the storm last week.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/mode...bTSLPUS192.gif

Hope the GFS is right on this as it has it further east. Lets hope the GFS is right on this, but keep in mind that the European has been on a roll with these east coast cyclones as of late.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Csiko

Good chance we'll see something Tuesday-ish at this point, but it's really a matter of where it ends up as to whether it ends up being rain or snow, much like the storm last week. I really don't like how every meteorologist on the planet is just terrified to use the word "snow" like it's some kind of curse all of a sudden this year.

Wed, Thur, Fri, Sat, Sun, and Monday.....look dry and mostly to partly sunny with pretty nice temps near 50 (day) to 30's (nights).

They think the low next week will turn more toward the east last I saw. So while the Tri-State/middle Atlantic (CT to VA) might see some showers, it will be too warm for anyting but rain. The NAO will go into a slight negitive phase on Monday (or is at least forecast to), but not nearly strong enough do much. It seems after 6 months, the NAO might just average positve.

Here is the current forecast for high temps for Thanksgiving day. The coldest air (30's) looks confined to the upper Midwest/far northern Plains and upper New England...for us in the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic as well as the rest of the central USA to Salt Lake City, high temps should be in the 50's ...while the 60's and 70' rule the subtropical south from the deserts to Florida:

Maybe a flight to Miami Thanksgiving day would be nice




.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Your welcome.....

Hey didnt you say the storm next week was going up through the Great Lakes?? All models point to a coastal.... WRONG AGAIN

[Cambium]

Current temps November 14th Morning.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Current temps November 14th Morning.

Looks pretty accurate…as I’m sitting at 38.6 F with morning.

Strange to south the south shore of Long Island slightly cooler than the islands though…(maybe due to closer distance to the Gulf stream)....