12-20-2014, 01:44 PM
10,006 posts, read
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Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Funny seeing some people claim Climo is the way to see things yet they ignore the "history" of patterns.
If I recall about 3 years ago when the 6 weeks of snow hell occurred, the winter was about snowless until Christmas. Look if you are going to argue there is a better chance of above normal snows when December is snowy I agree...but to say January - March will be below normal snow just because December didn't have snow well...lets agree to disagree. If this year is in fact less snowy than normal, I tip my cap.
'
12-20-2014, 01:54 PM
Location: On the Great South Bay
9,169 posts, read
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Reputation: 10141
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Funny seeing some people claim Climo is the way to see things yet they ignore the "history" of patterns.
Bah warm rain for Christmas Eve, if you would have brought a snow report I would have rated you up!
But noooooo, that asking too much.
Babylon, Long Island
Wednesday
Day - High 56 degrees with 90% of rain
Night -Low 43 degrees with 90% of rain
I understand we are supposed to get high winds? So we still get a terrible day for traveling but without any snow for Christmas Eve.
12-20-2014, 02:30 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
jp03
If I recall about 3 years ago when the 6 weeks of snow hell occurred, the winter was about snowless until Christmas.
That was 2010 and your anomaly example. But I believe we had coastal storms in October & November so the pattern was reloaded by Mid December with the cold air around then ended end of January.
But Why are you ignoring the last week of December that year? Are we getting snow next week?
In other words... don't ignore and use "before Christmas" you have to look at the entire month and if you do you will realize you're own example says a snowy December = above normal season that year.
I put Dec 1-24 in my above post but that was all of December instead. 1 yr out of last 23. Explain that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jp03
If this year is in fact less snowy than normal, I tip my cap.
You can't use the Guarantee card. You know that. If someone is so big on Climo saying "we don't get snow in November/December anyway" then use the stat history fact that below normal December snow only once meant above normal season in 2 decades+.
In other words.. you use Climatology to show our chances of getting snow before mid December, then use the snowless Decembers/below normal season as well.
10 days left.
12-20-2014, 03:19 PM
6,569 posts, read
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Reputation: 7999
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jp03
If I recall about 3 years ago when the 6 weeks of snow hell occurred, the winter was about snowless until Christmas. Look if you are going to argue there is a better chance of above normal snows when December is snowy I agree...but to say January - March will be below normal snow just because December didn't have snow well...lets agree to disagree. If this year is in fact less snowy than normal, I tip my cap.
It was the day after Christmas 2010 that it snowed. I went out for a ride and it started just as we headed out. Came down pretty good too. Then hell froze over till mid-February lol
12-20-2014, 03:45 PM
Location: Storrs, CT
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I say lets enjoy the holidays, maybe open the window the 24th to let some moisture in, and consider ourselves lucky that we get a break from shoveling snow.
12-20-2014, 05:33 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I have a new name for the 5 Lakes and a remembered hate for oceans.
NWS Buffalo . You would think Buffalo means snow this time of year... nope.... not even because of the Death Lakes Storm track. Bolded says it best. Read on.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING
RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS.
IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
12-20-2014, 07:37 PM
Location: CT, New England
678 posts, read
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Haven't kept up with the thread. Would appreciate feedback on what I'm saying:
12-21-2014, 05:37 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Special weather statement national weather service taunton ma 409 am est sun dec 21 2014 ctz002>004-maz009-011>013-017-riz001>004-006-211500- hartford ct-tolland ct-windham ct-western hampden ma- eastern hampden ma-southern worcester ma-western norfolk ma- northern bristol ma-northwest providence ri- southeast providence ri-western kent ri-eastern kent ri- washington ri- including the cities of...hartford...windsor locks...union... Vernon...putnam...willimantic...blandford...spring field... Milford...worcester...foxboro...norwood...taunton. ..foster... Smithfield...providence...west greenwich...warwick... Narragansett...westerly 409 am est sun dec 21 2014 ...1 to 2 inches of snow this morning may result in some slippery travel... Snow showers will affect northern connecticut...rhode island and portion of interior southeast massachusetts this morning. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be common and some roads may be slippery. The bulk of the snow will affect the region this morning...but a few lingering snow showers will remain possible this afternoon. Motorists should drive with extra caution this morning and be prepared for some slippery travel.
12-21-2014, 06:10 AM
Location: Branford
1,395 posts, read
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Reputation: 471
Today is the winter solstice. Shortest day of the year. From here on out we gain a little more sunlight every day.
My thoughts for this winter is it's above normal and very little snow.
Almost 60 on Christmas eve...
12-21-2014, 06:12 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FutureTown
Haven't kept up with the thread. Would appreciate feedback on what I'm saying:
Some snow fell and stuck in areas of CT last night but less than inch I believe. As far as snow our only hope is the last 3 days of December..
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FutureTown
Is this Winter looking relatively warm/snowless?
History says if we get below normal snowfall in December, the season ends up snowless or below normal. This is for Bridgeport area of course, I haven't checked BDL, but means basically 2 feet or less. Could be 2 big snowstorms. Could be a bunch of little ones, could be more rain than snow, could be no more snow at all.. Either way that's what history says and it's a pretty big percentage of it.
As far as temps... now that is a variable but Winter is 1/3 done so don't expect an extreme cold winter anymore. If we keep getting storms to cut through the Great Lake, kiss a cold winter goodbye. We need a NorthWest flow, not SouthWest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FutureTown
How does the rest of New England fair?
Northern New England could do very well. Just one of those years the pattern has favored north of us. Maine & Michigan is ripping it with snow totals.
Lets face it... the arctic air was around in November, not December. It's stuck on the Asia side, not even Canada is much below normal. Need to see it drop down a.s.a.p. It takes a weeks for a pattern to set in! We already got 3 weeks without it. It's time for a change!
And we need the Jet stream axis to shift East big time. See where the dip is this week? That needs to be where I put the dots. Much more east.
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People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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