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Old 12-17-2014, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620

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Bombs away. See it. Man, just shift over 700 miles! lol


 
Old 12-17-2014, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
NWS NY is amazed too. lol 1 week away, plenty of time for models to understand the track better.

Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA.

A MUCH MORE ROBUST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
NWS Albany brings up the 1978 Cleveland Bomb

Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978. HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD CHANGE BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.
 
Old 12-17-2014, 03:09 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Anyone care to check what those 2 storms brought to CT?

Jan 26-27, 1978 Cleveland Bomb & November 25-27, 1950 Great Appalachian Storm?

I'm scared to check. I don't want to depress myself more. lol
 
Old 12-17-2014, 03:44 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Well, we needed a 700 mile shift, we just got a 300 mile shift with the latest GFS. LOL!!

GFS18z Christmas Eve afternoon. 50s, downpours & wind for us. Come on another 300 mile shift! LOL

All jokes aside... anyone travelling Dec 24-25 need to be aware of possible weather delays. Yes.. I'm saying that with this one.

 
Old 12-17-2014, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Warren County, NJ
708 posts, read 1,060,223 times
Reputation: 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Well, we needed a 700 mile shift, we just got a 300 mile shift with the latest GFS. LOL!!

GFS18z Christmas Eve afternoon. 50s, downpours & wind for us. Come on another 300 mile shift! LOL

All jokes aside... anyone travelling Dec 24-25 need to be aware of possible weather delays. Yes.. I'm saying that with this one.

Wow, that's kinda crazy that the models are shifting this much. I can't wait to see what the next update says. Thank you Cam.
 
Old 12-17-2014, 06:50 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Anyone care to check what those 2 storms brought to CT?

Jan 26-27, 1978 Cleveland Bomb & November 25-27, 1950 Great Appalachian Storm?

I'm scared to check. I don't want to depress myself more. lol
While not alive yet, ive read about the 1950 storm. It was all rain but Newark, NJ had winds over 100 mph!

I think the Jan 1978 storm was the big snow before the famous Feb 1978 storm but not sure
 
Old 12-17-2014, 07:25 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
While not alive yet, ive read about the 1950 storm. It was all rain but Newark, NJ had winds over 100 mph!

I think the Jan 1978 storm was the big snow before the famous Feb 1978 storm but not sure
Damn 100mph? Just checked. Cleveland bomb gave us mid 50s and ton of rain then temps crashed to 20s.

A week before Jan 20,1978 was the biggest 1 day snowfall for january with 15.7". At bridgeport. Huge snowstorm/blizzard.

You know what sucks. A storm looks like its happening Christmas Eve,day. So I personally rather have it be snow. Its going to be a mess with rain. At least if its snow I can play outside with the kids and not be stuck inside with the annoying obnoxious adults. Lmao
 
Old 12-17-2014, 07:45 PM
 
2,601 posts, read 3,397,987 times
Reputation: 2395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Damn 100mph? Just checked. Cleveland bomb gave us mid 50s and ton of rain then temps crashed to 20s.

A week before Jan 20,1978 was the biggest 1 day snowfall for january with 15.7". At bridgeport. Huge snowstorm/blizzard.

You know what sucks. A storm looks like its happening Christmas Eve,day. So I personally rather have it be snow. Its going to be a mess with rain. At least if its snow I can play outside with the kids and not be stuck inside with the annoying obnoxious adults. Lmao
Yeah, plus nothing nicer than a white Christmas with it snowing outside. That way santa can safely land his sled
 
Old 12-18-2014, 04:12 AM
 
2,941 posts, read 1,785,035 times
Reputation: 2274
SO at this moment it looks like a huge rain event? srsly?
 
Old 12-18-2014, 04:20 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
Reputation: 5126
This from BOX and OKX respectively:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 607 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 CTZ002>004-MAZ003>005-010>012-026-RIZ001-181300- HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA- NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...GREENFIELD...ORANG E...BARRE... FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...AMHERST...NORTHA MPTON... SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...FOSTER. ..SMITHFIELD 607 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 ...SNOW SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE... QUICK MOVING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 608 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 CTZ007-181215- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- 608 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .NOW... SNOW SHOWERS FALLING IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 640 AM EST. A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ON WET AND SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THIS MORNINGS RUSH HOUR. $$
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