[witnessachange]

almost 10 inches in naugatuck in the hilly area.. we will probably have over a foot by the time the storms over

[kidyankee764]

I'm shocked at how much snow fell up in Danbury. I spent the day on a contract with a company off of Kenosia Avenue and there had to have been 9 or 10" of snow in Danbury. I took 84 to RT 34 home...the roads were treacherous at 4pm and accidents were plentiful.

When I got to Orange, maybe 3 or 4" were on the ground.

I was watching the animated radar and there was a huge band of very heavy snow circulating over Westchester, Fairfield and western New Haven County that didn't go away for hours. There seemed to be nothing over eastern CT.

The gun shy weathermen really messed this one up again. So far in the past week, 0 and 2.

[Lowerdeck]

Only got about 2-3 inches here, little less than expected.

We've had a couple of unpredictable storms in a row now...

[blogspott]

I would really appreciate updates on Tuesdays storm because -I am flying to western PA. Thank you!!

[Lowerdeck]

Originally Posted by blogspott

I would really appreciate updates on Tuesdays storm because -I am flying to western PA. Thank you!!

Forecast discussions:

Northern CT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 PM EST THU FEB 18 2010


THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COMES IN
THE FORM OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS EVEN IN LARGER SCALE EVOLUTION. IN ANY
EVENT...WE LIKED A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE /BOTH MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
FOR A 4-5 DAY FORECAST/. THEREFORE...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES AND DRY-SLOT ISSUES MAY COME INTO PLAY AND
MESS WITH PRECIP TYPES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF A SW FLOW EVENT. A LATE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD MAY TRY TO
FORM BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THAT POSSIBILITY. IN A
NUTSHELL...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SNE...MAINLY ON TUE. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST WED AND
THURS AND STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY.

Southern CT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 PM EST THU FEB 18 2010

ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NEGATIVE NAO CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE LONG TERM.

MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND ITS
TRACK. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND TIMING BUT MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO WED. WITH A STACKED LOW INITIALLY IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH...THE REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A MARITIME POLAR REGIME
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL US/CANADA. THIS
WILL HAVE ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TO START...AND
NOT AN IDEAL SET UP TO LOCK COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SO GREATER
LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE A SNOW/RAIN MIX ALONG THE COAST...MORE SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STILL THERE...STAY TUNED.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS WAKE
TO END THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Because I can...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 18 2010

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS FURTHEST SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH QUITE A
SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/PLUMES...WILL STAY CLOSE TO HPC POP
NUMBERS...WITH LIKELY POPS FROM PIT SOUTH MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...AND LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS IN A
PRECIP SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN MIX/RAIN FOR NOW.
THIS IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
WINTER STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE FOR MIDWEEK...WITH PERHAPS A LESSEN
PRECIP TREND THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL EARLY IN THE WEEK...COOLING TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MIDWEEK.

Still a bit too soon to tell is the consensus. Probably would know more by Saturday and Sunday.

[7 Wishes]

A side note that relates to this thread.

I stumbled on an interesting article the other day on Orville Slutzky. He and his brother Izzy, both engineers who founded a construction company are considered the "fathers of snowmaking" for the ski industry (they technically didn't invent it, but they greatly improved on the original mechanism a couple of years after it was invented and founded the first ski resort to extensively use it, Hunter Mountain, which Orville still runs in his early 90s!). I knew a little about them before because one of them went to my alma mater (RPI) and is sometimes talked about in their alumni rag and my grandma once told me back when I was going to college that they were very distant cousins we had little if any contact with.

Anyway, the ski resort as well as where he grew up is about at the latitude of the CT-MA border with somewhat higher terrain and yet he noted that part of his motivation to "invent" snowmaking was that he noticed as a kid that there were many years (not the majority, but more than "a few") where the snow cover was not consistent enough for him and his brother to use the horse-drawn sleigh that his father set up each winter on their farm as well as that when he was older he found ski areas south of the Adirondacks/VT/NH/ME needed to close too often in the winter back then for lack of decent snow cover.

So our winters are not simply "global warming".

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

A side note that relates to this thread.

I stumbled on an interesting article the other day on Orville Slutzky. He and his brother Izzy, both engineers who founded a construction company are considered the "fathers of snowmaking" for the ski industry (they technically didn't invent it, but they greatly improved on the original mechanism a couple of years after it was invented and founded the first ski resort to extensively use it, Hunter Mountain, which Orville still runs in his early 90s!). I knew a little about them before because one of them went to my alma mater (RPI) and is sometimes talked about in their alumni rag and my grandma once told me back when I was going to college that they were very distant cousins we had little if any contact with.

Anyway, the ski resort as well as where he grew up is about at the latitude of the CT-MA border with somewhat higher terrain and yet he noted that part of his motivation to "invent" snowmaking was that he noticed as a kid that there were many years (not the majority, but more than "a few") where the snow cover was not consistent enough for him and his brother to use the horse-drawn sleigh that his father set up each winter on their farm as well as that when he was older he found ski areas south of the Adirondacks/VT/NH/ME needed to close too often in the winter back then for lack of decent snow cover.

So our winters are not simply "global warming".

That’s interesting…

Many years ago (1970’s) Mount Snow Ski Park in Southington hired an environmental research firm to study the problems with not enough snow/snow cover. MS has had financial problems over the years due to keeping snow cover on the ground for winter sports. I can remember many times seeing the owners of Mt. Snow in vein trying to hold on to the snow cover in sunny 50 F days in the middle of winter. Anyway, I can vaguely remember that the study at Mt. Snow concluded… that they need to diversify into a more seasonal resort…as snow/ snow cover was far too fleeting in Connecticut to ever run a profitable ski resort. This was before all the rage of “global warming”.

I think people forget what is “normal” because of the media hype in the extreme years (like the DC area is having this year). Somehow the science always gets lost in the media. Most people have no idea what normal snowcover is because it has been smothered in all the hype. The number of days with snowcover has not changed that much in the last 146 years on the Yale Campus (records at the Yale School of Forestry go back to the Civil War). When you look at the long term hard data, snow cover is quite fleeting in most lowland locations (less than 500 ft) south of Massachusetts on the East Coast. It has nothing to do with global warming...it's just the climate of the North Atlantic States.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

That’s interesting…

Many years ago (1970’s) Mount Snow Ski Park in Southington hired an environmental research firm to study the problems with not enough snow/snow cover. MS has had financial problems over the years due to keeping snow cover on the ground for winter sports. I can remember many times seeing the owners of Mt. Snow in vein trying to hold on to the snow cover in sunny 50 F days in the middle of winter. Anyway, I can vaguely remember that the study at Mt. Snow concluded… that they need to diversify into a more seasonal resort…as snow/ snow cover was far too fleeting in Connecticut to ever run a profitable ski resort. This was before all the rage of “global warming”.

I think people forget what is “normal” because of the media hype in the extreme years (like the DC area is having this year). Somehow the science always gets lost in the media. Most people have no idea what normal snowcover is because it has been smothered in all the hype. The number of days with snowcover has not changed that much in the last 146 years on the Yale Campus (records at the Yale School of Forestry go back to the Civil War). When you look at the long term hard data, snow cover is quite fleeting in most lowland locations (less than 500 ft) south of Massachusetts on the East Coast. It has nothing to do with global warming...it's just the climate of the North Atlantic States.

Assuming that is the place called "Mt. Southington" now, I remember taking my nephew snow tubing there in the late 1990s on a day that was almost 50-deg and the conditions even for that "deteriorating" as the day wore on.

If you look at old road maps from the 70s, you will see a lot of places around here that had ski areas that you wouldn't believe could have one.....Powder Ridge (though I know they only closed recently and may come back), the Bear Mountain area about 30 miles west of Danbury (did you know that a half-century ago they were one of the premier ski-jumping centers in the US?), and most laughably, Long Island!

Any link to the Yale record? I'd find it pretty interesting....great post!

[DawnMTL]

OK, you weather gurus, which site do you have more faith in being correct?

weather.com?

NOAA?

accuweather?

The reason that I'm asking is that both weather.com and NOAA are calling for rain for four days this coming week, but accuweather is calling for a bit of snow. I always trusted weather.com as my weather bible, but since recently finding accuweather, I began to trust that more. But the discrepancy is making me trust it less.

Which site is your go-to and most trusted weather site?

[witnessachange]

where are you reading or where do you live?? weather.com is saying for all snow and some rain.. all this week for naugatuck all the way north