[Cambium]

Low moving off the coast of North Carolina then moving NW. WHY OH WHY!! Typical El Nino pattern. Typical for this entire winter. Move on folks. We'll be "LUCKY" if we get 4 inches now. Rediculas.

Waste of cold air!!!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Snowman27

Low moving off the coast of North Carolina then moving NW. WHY OH WHY!! Typical El Nino pattern. Typical for this entire winter. Move on folks. We'll be "LUCKY" if we get 4 inches now. Rediculas.

Waste of cold air!!!

As you can see…the models trend all over the place. Did I mention that the folks who create the winter storm models are generally huge winter fans… (lol).


Here is the current WX Discussion…

HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE ON FRI WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...JUST TIMING AND STRENGTH REMAIN IN QUESTION.
INTERESTINGLY...MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL ENERGY
SEPARATE WITH ITS SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF STATES TONIGHT
AND LIFTING TO A POINT NEAR CAPE HATTERAS FRI NIGHT..WHILE A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW FORMS NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FROM
THERE...THE COASTAL LOW IS STEERED TO THE ENE DUE TO A BLOCKING
CUTOFF LOW OVER SERN CANADA. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD GRAZING NYC...LI AND PORTIONS OF NE NJ. THERE IS SUCH A
FINE LINE IN THE PRECIP SHIELD...THAT IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT DON`T SEE ANYTHING AT ALL.

NOT WILLING TO BUY COMPLETELY INTO THAT JUST YET...SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN NYC/LI/PARTS OF
NE NJ WITH AN AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH...FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
THIS WOULD BE MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS. IF THE TRACK DOES SHIFT TO
THE NORTH...THEN HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.


WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM IN HWO
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS HAS
DECREASED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT
SOUTHERN ZONES.


If you really want to see anger about no snow...watch Brad Field tonight. He lives for the 90 days of winter.

If only people paid more attention to long term climate data...and less to marketing and media interests.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Did I mention that the folks who create the winter storm models are generally huge winter fans… (lol).

What in the world are you talking about?? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Models showed a coastal storm 7 days prior...and we have a coastal storm.. The track changes and so do the models but overall ....hello..... we do have a winter storm and a record breaking one possibly.

[JViello]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

(Anyone have any golfing tips? I suck.) lol...

If you are serious, yes. Don't try and be Reggie Jackson and just relax and hit the ball with about 50% less force than you think you'll need. You'd be surprised what a little restraint does for accuracy and how much distance you'll still get.

If you are using a caddy or are with someone experienced, ask him for club recomendations as you play the course. Nothing shameful about it.

I'd say get out on a range and do some driving and chipping before you go but - ah, it's a little cold out there.

Oh, and just have FUN and don't worry about it.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Snowman27

What in the world are you talking about?? That makes no sense whatsoever.

Models showed a coastal storm 7 days prior...and we have a coastal storm.. The track changes and so do the models but overall ....hello..... we do have a winter storm and a record breaking one possibly.

I think you are giving them a little too much credit for simply stating the obvious.

Are weathercasters so lacking in knowledge of regional climatology and synoptic meteorology... that they can’t spot a weather pattern that will produce low pressure east of the Mississippi at some point? The current pattern of El Nino has had storms hitting the West Coast...reorganizing west of 90 W...then passing off the East Coast between Maine and North Carolina 3 or 4 days after striking the West Coast. If there is cold air north of Richmond, Virginia (a typical situation from Dec-mid March)...and moisture is thrown up into it...there will be snow. What did the models tell us...there will be snow somewhere from Virginia to Maine? They couldn’t even get the day right. Give me a fifteen year old High School student, a satellite loop updated every 6 hours, and a map... and I could get just as much dart throwing as the computer 8 out of 10 times (lol). The real problem is that a week or more away from an obvious (and typical weather event)...they hype it so bad with big headlines and bold predictions for the 90 –million people from Richmond to Maine... and in the end a tiny segment of the population will see heavy snow or something signifcant.

AccuWeather was in full hype mode last weekend saying that most places from Richmond to Boston would see 2 -feet of snow this weekend.

DO THEY HAVE ANY IDEA THE ODDS OF SUCH AN EVENT?

[Lowerdeck]

BOX has removed any chance of snow for northern Connecticut and central Massachusetts on Saturday.

[witnessachange]

the second major storm of the year is missing us again. BUT there is another storm coming tues/wed... maybe just maybe we shall get some lovely snow. this winter sucks!!

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Snowman27

Low moving off the coast of North Carolina then moving NW. WHY OH WHY!! Typical El Nino pattern. Typical for this entire winter. Move on folks. We'll be "LUCKY" if we get 4 inches now. Rediculas.

Waste of cold air!!!

You mean moving NE, not NW, right? if it moved NW from North Carolina we'd have a very direct hit (infact, directly NW from NC, besides not being a typical direction storms go, would probably actually bring a big rainstorm as that means it would track inland and pull in warmer marine/southern air).

What I think will be really wild is that if this storm goes the way they are predicting (almost 3 ft. in DC and maybe not even an inch north of NYC or the CT coast), Washington DC will have a higher seasonal snow total at least for this point in the winter than Albany and Hartford, it may be a historic first (there was a year in the early 2000s where NYC actually finished with more snow than Albany and the NWS said it was the first time in happened in the well over 100 years of record......considering that DC averages only 16" of snow/winter vs. almost 30" for NYC and southernmost CT for it to beat Albany and Hartford would be truly bizarre).

[vilmer laktow]

32" reported at Dulles ??? Is that possible ?

[witnessachange]

possible noreaster wed/thurs.. for US meaning CT